By PredictQ Team // Updated: July 2026
June 2026 was the single busiest month in the history of this industry. Robinhood’s exchange venture Rothera went live June 4. The CFTC approved ProphetX as a full exchange and clearinghouse June 11, and ProphetX launched real-money trading June 18. Novig’s exchange license was approved June 16. DraftKings flipped on its own exchange, DKeX, on June 26. Four new federally regulated venues in one month, layered on top of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the brokerage products from Coinbase, FanDuel, OG.com, and Underdog.
Citizens analysts now peg the industry at roughly a $3 billion annual revenue run rate, and monthly trading volume set a record above $31 billion in May 2026. Coinbase Predict alone hit $100 million annualized revenue in its second full month. This category went from niche to mainstream financial product in about 18 months.
That growth created real choice and real confusion. Ten platforms, at least six distinct regulatory structures, fee models that range from 0% to a flat 2% of payouts, and state availability that shifts monthly with litigation. We’ve reviewed every platform in depth. This guide is the consolidated version: who each platform is actually for, ranked bonuses, ranked fees, and the availability picture as of July 2026.
The Snapshot Table
State availability moves constantly with enforcement and litigation. Verify in-app before assuming access, and read the bonus fine print, because every offer above has qualifying conditions.
The Regulatory Map Just Got Redrawn
Six months ago you could sort these platforms into three clean tiers: exchanges, brokers, and sweepstakes operators waiting on the CFTC. That framing is dead. The sweepstakes tier has nearly emptied out, and the useful question now is simpler: who owns the exchange your trade actually lands on?
Platforms running their own exchange. Kalshi has held its DCM designation since November 2020 and added its own clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear, in August 2024. Polymarket bought its way in, acquiring the CFTC-licensed QCEX exchange and clearinghouse for $112 million and relaunching in the U.S. in December 2025 as an intermediated platform. ProphetX earned dual DCM and DCO approval on June 11, 2026, making it the first sports-native exchange that trades, clears, and settles in-house, and it launched nationwide a week later. DraftKings built DKeX on its Railbird acquisition and went live June 26. OG.com sits here too: it runs on CDNA, the exchange and clearinghouse Crypto.com has owned since 2022. And Rothera, launched June 4, is a full exchange co-owned by Robinhood and Susquehanna (roughly 45% each, with MIAX holding the rest), built on the acquired MIAXdx licenses.
Trading on a house exchange means no third-party broker in the chain and one entity accountable for listing and settlement.
Brokers routing to someone else’s venue. Coinbase Predict is a registered FCM that routes everything to Kalshi. FanDuel Predicts routes to CME Group. Underdog Predict routes to CDNA, though it bought the Aristotle Exchange licenses in March 2026 and plans to run its own venue eventually. Robinhood is the interesting hybrid: a registered FCM that routes across three exchanges (KalshiEX, ForecastEx, and Rothera), one of which it half-owns. One correction from earlier coverage: DraftKings Predictions is a CFTC-registered Introducing Broker, and FanDuel’s entity is the FCM. They are structured differently even though the apps feel similar.
The broker layer historically meant a fee markup. That is still true at Coinbase and Underdog. It is no longer automatically true at Robinhood, which capped its commission at a penny per contract in June.
The last sweepstakes holdout. Novig’s dual-currency app (free-play Novig Coins plus redeemable Novig Cash) is still live in around 40 states, but it has an expiration date. Novig’s DCM was approved June 16, 2026, one of the fastest designations on record, and the regulated exchange is expected by the end of summer. ProphetX already retired its sweepstakes product entirely. The era of “prediction market” meaning “sweepstakes workaround” is over.
Which Platform Fits You
Broadest markets: Kalshi. Politics, sports, economics, crypto, weather, culture, and the deepest liquidity in mainstream U.S. markets. Kalshi did record volume in June 2026 behind the World Cup, confirmed a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation in May, and its taker fee falls toward zero at price extremes. The caveat is sports availability: a Michigan court blocked Kalshi’s sports contracts on June 30, and a New York judge declined to shield it from state enforcement on July 8. Everything else trades nationwide. Trade $10 on Kalshi, get $10 back →
Politics: Polymarket. Still the political order book everything else gets compared against, and the 2024 election made its reputation. Two updates matter. First, plain politics markets now carry a taker fee (0.04 rate, maxing at $1.00 per 100 shares at 50c); only the Geopolitics category is fully free. Second, Polymarket is available in roughly 38-40 states, not all 50, and New York is on the excluded list. If you can access it, the political depth still justifies the account. Polymarket bonus: $50 when you deposit $20 →
Biggest bonus: OG.com, with Polymarket as the smarter grab for most people. OG’s ceiling is $100, but the structure changed: you earn $10 for trading $10, then additional bonuses at $100, $250, and $500 in settled volume within seven days, on contracts priced under 80 cents. That maximum requires real trading. Polymarket’s deposit $20, get $50 is the best low-effort return on the board. Novig’s $50 in Coins for $5 remains the highest percentage offer, with the sweepstakes asterisk attached until its regulated launch.
Lowest fees: depends where you trade, and Robinhood is now shockingly competitive. Polymarket Geopolitics at 0% wins outright in that category. For everything else, Robinhood’s June repricing capped commission at $0.01 per contract (Gold members pay up to half that), which beats most of the field even after exchange fees. DraftKings charges a penny per contract at price extremes and two cents in the middle. Kalshi is cheapest for extreme-probability positions. The expensive seats are Coinbase Predict, which layers an undisclosed markup on Kalshi’s fees, and any sportsbook, where implied vig runs 4.5% or more.
Sports bettor in California, Texas, Florida, or Georgia: ProphetX, FanDuel Predicts, or DraftKings Predictions. All three offer sports event contracts in states with no legal sportsbook. FanDuel and DraftKings run sports in exactly 18 states each, displayed in familiar American odds. ProphetX covers 49 states with a peer-to-peer exchange and an RFQ system for pricing your own multi-leg combos. For an exchange experience, ProphetX is the pick; for a sportsbook feel, FanDuel. ProphetX new-trader offer: trade $10, get $20 →
Already on Coinbase or Robinhood: use what you have, but know the cost. Coinbase Predict trades from your existing USD/USDC balance in all 50 states, and you pay a premium over Kalshi direct for the convenience. Robinhood is the better economics story now: penny-capped commissions, three routed venues, and 16 billion-plus contracts traded in 2026 by early June.
DFS player: Underdog Predict. Event contracts live inside the Underdog Fantasy app you already use, sports-focused with politics and economics on the side. Coverage is the constraint: 31 states plus DC. Sign up for Underdog Predict →
Sports-only purist: ProphetX. The only sports-native exchange that clears its own trades, live in 49 states, no house margin baked into prices. It launched into the World Cup and the timing was no accident.
Welcome Bonuses, Ranked
Ordered by maximum value as of July 2026:
OG.com: up to $100 via volume milestones ($10 for trading $10, more at $100/$250/$500 settled volume, 7-day window)
Polymarket: $50 bonus for a $20 deposit
Novig: $50 in Novig Coins for $5 spend (sweepstakes product, best percentage return)
DraftKings Predictions: spend $5, get $25 in Predictions Dollars
FanDuel Predicts: $25, now requiring a deposit and a real-money trade
ProphetX: trade $10, get $20, credited win or lose
Kalshi: trade $10, get $10 standard; some partner codes pay $15-$20
Underdog Predict: nothing Predict-specific; the DFS side pays $50 in bonus entries for $5 played
Robinhood: no cash bonus; referring five friends earned $0-commission World Cup trades
Coinbase Predict: no Predict bonus; the general Coinbase wheel-spin promo ($50+ crypto purchase) usually lands $30-$100 in BTC
Two changes from earlier this year deserve flagging. FanDuel’s $25 used to be a pure no-deposit offer for completing verification; that version ended in June, and unused bonus now expires after seven days. And OG’s old five-step verification ladder is gone, replaced by the trading-volume milestones. If a review still describes either old structure, it is stale.
Fees, Ranked
Approximate cost on 100 contracts (about $100 max payout), taker side, at mid-range prices:
Polymarket Geopolitics: $0
Polymarket Sports: up to $0.75, and makers get rebates
Robinhood: commission capped at $1.00 per 100 contracts, lower at price extremes, plus exchange fees; Gold cuts it up to 50%
Polymarket Politics/Finance/Tech: up to $1.00
DraftKings Predictions: $1.00 at prices of 19 cents and under or 97 cents and up; $2.00 in between
Kalshi: up to $1.75 at 50 cents, approaching zero at the extremes; makers pay a quarter of taker rates, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 markets run at half rate
OG.com: flat $2.00 to open, $0 if held to settlement, another $2.00 only if you close early
FanDuel Predicts: 2% of payouts, so $2.00 on a $100 win and nothing on losses
Coinbase Predict: Kalshi’s fee plus a markup Coinbase does not publish
Underdog Predict: broker pricing over CDNA’s exchange fees, consistently above the direct-exchange options
ProphetX and Novig: peer-to-peer with no embedded vig; both are launching fresh regulated fee schedules, so check the live docs before trading size
For reference, a standard -110 sportsbook line costs about $4.55 in implied vig on the same $100. Every platform on this list beats that.
The pattern worth internalizing: fee structure matters more than fee headline. A buy-and-hold trader does great on OG’s $0-at-settlement model. A trader working the extremes does best on Kalshi or DraftKings. A high-volume politics trader should be on Polymarket posting maker orders and collecting rebates.
State Availability in July 2026
The old claim that half these platforms cover “all 50 states” no longer survives contact with the litigation docket.
Full or near-full coverage: Coinbase Predict (50 states via Kalshi), FanDuel Predicts (50 states plus DC for non-sports markets), ProphetX (49, everywhere but Nevada), OG.com (48 plus DC, excluding Arizona and New York), and Kalshi for non-sports contracts. Robinhood is broadly available with a small number of sports carve-outs.
Partial coverage: Polymarket sits around 38-40 states, excluded from New York and roughly ten others, with Minnesota’s ban set for August 1. DraftKings Predictions is absent entirely from Maine and New Hampshire, offers sports in 18 states, and restricts non-sports markets in about ten more. Underdog covers 31 states plus DC. Novig’s sweepstakes app reaches around 40 states (California banned the dual-currency model effective January 2026), with near-nationwide access expected after its Q3 regulated launch.
Sports contracts are the battleground. FanDuel and DraftKings only offer them where their own sportsbooks do not operate. Kalshi’s sports contracts are blocked in Michigan under a June 30 TRO and exposed to New York enforcement after the July 8 ruling.
The legal fight is escalating on both sides. The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 for Kalshi on April 6, 2026, holding that federal law preempts New Jersey’s gambling regulators, the first appellate decision on the question. The CFTC has now sued nine states (Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, New Mexico, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Kentucky) to defend its exclusive jurisdiction. On the other side, a 41-state attorneys general coalition led by Ohio filed a formal comment urging the CFTC to preserve state authority over sports contracts, and the agency’s proposed prediction-markets rulemaking closes for comment July 27. North Carolina broke ranks entirely, passing a law on July 7 that recognizes federal authority. Expect the map to keep moving.
Best Platform by Category
Politics: Polymarket for depth, Kalshi for breadth. Sports: ProphetX for the exchange model, Kalshi where its sports contracts are live, FanDuel or DraftKings in their 18 states, Underdog for DFS crossover. Crypto: Polymarket’s crypto-native order books, Coinbase Predict for balance integration, OG.com for the Crypto.com ecosystem. Economics: Kalshi owns Fed and CPI markets; FanDuel carries CME-listed indicators (DraftKings moved off CME when DKeX launched, so its catalog is now its own). Weather and climate: Kalshi, no contest. Culture: Polymarket and Kalshi split it.
Running Multiple Platforms
Serious users rarely stop at one account, and the math supports that.
Stacking every current welcome offer (OG $100, Polymarket $50, Novig $50, DraftKings $25, FanDuel $25, ProphetX $20, Kalshi $10) is worth about $280 before you have risked meaningful capital. Beyond bonuses, the same event frequently prices differently across venues, and cross-platform arbitrage is real for anyone willing to manage balances in two or three places. The lazier version, just executing each trade on the cheapest venue for that category, saves 1-2% per trade and compounds fast at volume.
The friction is KYC on every platform and capital split across accounts. Two or three primary platforms is the practical ceiling for most people.
Common Questions
Are prediction markets legal in the U.S.? The CFTC-regulated venues (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX, DKeX, CDNA, CME, Rothera, and the brokers routing to them) operate under federal authority, and the Third Circuit backed federal preemption in April 2026. Several states are still fighting it, which is why availability differs by platform and by contract type. Novig operates under sweepstakes law until its regulated launch.
Do I pay taxes on winnings? Yes. Regulated event contracts are generally taxed as capital gains; sweepstakes redemptions are typically prize or gambling income. Platforms issue 1099s above reporting thresholds. Talk to a tax professional if you trade size.
Can I trade from outside the U.S.? These are U.S.-focused products. Polymarket’s international, wallet-based platform is the exception, serving non-U.S. users on the same order books.
How fast are withdrawals? ACH on the regulated platforms generally clears in 1-3 business days. Polymarket and Coinbase support crypto rails, which settle after network confirmation. Timelines on the newly launched exchanges are still settling in; check each platform’s current terms.
Can I trade on my phone? All ten support mobile. FanDuel Predicts is mobile-only. DraftKings added desktop web trading, and most of the rest run both.
The Bottom Line
If you’re new, open Kalshi first. It has the longest regulated track record, the widest catalog, and the most liquidity to learn against. Add Polymarket if politics is your game and your state allows it. If you’re a sports bettor, ProphetX is the most important launch of 2026: a real exchange, 49 states, no house on the other side of your trade. And if you already live in the Robinhood app, its penny-capped pricing quietly made it one of the cheapest doors into the entire category.
The platforms spent 2025 fighting for licenses. They will spend the rest of 2026 fighting for you, with bonuses, fee cuts, and new markets. Collect accordingly.
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of July 2026 and subject to change. Multiple platforms covered in this guide have ongoing legal proceedings, state availability changes, and evolving regulatory environments that may affect product availability and terms. Trading event contracts and sweepstakes-based prediction markets involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all participants. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Age requirements vary by platform (18+ at most, 19+ at ProphetX with 21+ in some states). If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.