Research & Analysis
The edge, written down
Expert breakdowns, strategy notes, and the sharpest signals from the prediction market ecosystem.
Thursday Night Forecast: Week 5 NFL Markets, Weather and Matchups
Kevin Roth and Brian Hartman break down Week 5 NFL prediction markets, the weather that moves them, and the matchups worth a position. Watch live....
PredictQ Team· · 1 min read
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 5
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
Cole Wyman· · 9 min
The First Prediction-Market Election: Tracking the Board to Nov. 3
CNN's headline two weeks ago called this "the first prediction-market election," and the volume keeps piling up. Kalshi's House control market shows $...
John Breslin· · 14 min
Three Week 5 NFL Prediction Markets Where Our Model Sees a Different Price
The Football Gold model is designed to create an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model ac...
Football Gold· · 5 min
The Four Agreements of Profitable Traders
The four agreements: be impeccable with your word, don’t take things personally, don’t make assumptions, and always do your best....
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
Week 4 Market Movers: A Rookie Erupts, Two Exchanges Disagree on COY, and the Award Races Tighten.
A rookie almost nobody was pricing went supernova, the DPOY board bailed on a star, the Niners finally got the respect on Polymarket that Kalshi had b...
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
Asymmetric Weather Markets: When the Shape of the Distribution Matters
Temperature markets are more than individual contracts. This article shows how uneven pricing across neighboring ranges can reveal potential mispricin...
Peter Nickerson· · 6 min
What's Hot - PredictQ Culture Radar
Week of October 5, 2026 "Dancing with the Stars, Rotten Tomatoes scores, and our weekly check-in on the Oscars. <img class="rounded-lg max-w-full my-4...
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
Why Betting Is Broken and What Comes Next: Inside BetOpenly With Gino
BetOpenly founder Gino on de-vigged peer-to-peer pricing, why better prices alone haven't won over retail bettors, housing parlays, and why a universa...
PredictQ Team· · 21 min
Thursday Night Forecast: Week 4 NFL Markets, Weather and Matchups
Kevin Roth and Brian Hartman break down Week 4 NFL prediction markets, the weather that moves them, and the matchups worth a position. Watch live....
PredictQ Team· · 1 min
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 4
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
Cole Wyman· · 9 min
Week 3 Market Movers: Gibbs Pulls Away, and a Rookie Takes Over
It’s a wrap for Week 3. A week I am dubbing “the week of true colors” as we can no longer use arguments of rust to make excuses for player or team per...
Trevor Glisson· · 6 min
Three Week 4 NFL Prediction Markets Where Our Model Sees a Different Price
The Football Gold model is designed to create an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model ac...
Football Gold· · 5 min
El Niño Is Strengthening: What Could It Mean for Weather Markets?
El Niño could reshape U.S. weather this winter, shifting storm tracks and increasing the importance of clouds, rain, and forecast uncertainty in weath...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
How a Top Prediction Market Trader Finds an Edge: Inside Domer's Process
Domer, one of the top prediction market traders, on pricing events that have never happened, Kelly sizing, his six-figure James Bond position, the fiv...
PredictQ Team· · 29 min
Thursday Night Forecast: Week 3 NFL Markets, Weather and Matchups
Kevin Roth and Brian Hartman break down Week 3 NFL prediction markets, the weather that moves them, and the matchups worth a position. Watch live....
PredictQ Team· · 1 min
Analyzing Kalshi and Polymarket Weekly Fantasy Football Markets
If you have ever built a DFS lineup, you have already done the hard part of this trade. Whether you built Monte Carlo sims or cooked up a lineup on yo...
John Breslin· · 13 min
Week 2 Market Movers: 2 Carts and a Josh Allen
Week 2 did not ease anyone in. It took out two young Quarterbacks, gave us multiple shocking upsets that clogged up a coaching market, and Josh Allen ...
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
When Should You Trade Tomorrow's High Temperature?
When should you trade tomorrow’s high-temperature market? This article compares market open, overnight model updates, morning observations, and late-m...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
What's Hot - The PredictQ Culture Radar
Week of September 21,2026 It’s VMA week: Madonna’s performing at the show for the first time in over two decades and Taylor Swift is in range of a rec...
Trevor Glisson· · 6 min
From Fantasy Football to Prediction Markets: How Justin Herzig Finds an Edge
PredictQ co-founder Justin Herzig on groupthink, pricing, market making in thin fantasy markets, the in-game mistake that cost him edge, and how he'd ...
PredictQ Team· · 27 min
High vs. Low Temperature Markets: Why They Behave Differently
High and low temperature markets may look similar, but the weather processes behind them are very different. Using roughly 160 days of forecast data f...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
Thursday Night Forecast: Week 2 NFL Markets, Weather and Matchups
Kevin Roth and Brian Hartman break down Week 2 NFL prediction markets, the weather that moves them, and the matchups worth a position. Watch live....
PredictQ Team· · 1 min
Splash Survivor Week 1: The Chargers Massacre, Why Splitting the Book Worked, and a Sharper Field Than You Think
If you were among the roughly three-quarters of the field that survived the biggest Week 1 upset since 2018, congratulations. The Chargers went into S...
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
Market Movers: The MVP Race, the Super Bowl Board, and Everything Week 1 Repriced
How the markets reacted to Week 1 results...
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
Novig Just Crossed $1 Billion in Trading Volume
Novig's CEO says the platform passed $1 billion in trading volume weeks after launching its prediction market. What's actually driving it, what the Sy...
PredictQ Team· · 7 min
What Circa's Week 1 Ownership Tells Us About the Splash Field
Circa posts its survivor ownership every Saturday night. Week 1 shows how closely it maps to the Splash field, where the two diverge most, and what we...
PredictQ Team· · 2 min
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets By Peter Nickerson, Climate & Weather Analyst — September 11, 2026 Winning t...
Peter Nickerson· · 7 min
Thursday Night Forecast: Week 1 NFL Markets, Weather and Matchups
Kevin Roth and Brian Hartman break down Week 1 NFL prediction markets, the weather that moves them, and the matchups worth a position. Watch the full ...
PredictQ Team· · 1 min
NFL Survivor Strategy: A Survival Guide to Large Field Contests.
How to actually win large-field survivor contests....
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
How a Prediction Market Trader Finds an Edge: Brett Hartfiel Interview
How a Prediction Market Trader Finds an Edge: Brett Hartfiel Interview A Q&A with Brett Hartfiel The Prediction Market Show, Episode 1 · PredictQ Sour...
PredictQ Team· · 22 min
Forecast Biases in Models and Cities
Understanding biases in temperature forecasts can allow traders to make more informed decisions about which cities are more consistent or more volatil...
Peter Nickerson· · 4 min
EXCLUSIVE: Buy 10, Get 1 Free On Splash Sports Survivor Contests
Code PREDICTQ adds a free 11th entry for every 10 you buy into either Splash Sports NFL Survivor contest, the $21M World Championship or the $3M Big S...
PredictQ Team· · 5 min
Why I’m Trading Prediction Markets in 2026
Last August I wrote a column for 4for4 called “Why I’m Playing Daily Fantasy Sports in 2025. And Why You Should Too.” Somewhere in the second paragrap...
John Breslin· · 8 min
Survivor Freeroll Official Rules
Every rule for the SplashSports x Polymarket x PredictQ Survivor Freeroll: who can enter, what you owe us each day, how scoring works, how the winner ...
PredictQ Team· · 8 min
FREEROLL ALERT: We're Giving Away a $1,000 Seat in the $21M Survivor Pool
PredictQ is running a free 7-day Survivor contest on Polymarket. Win it and you get a $1,000 entry into the $21M guaranteed Splash Sports x Polymarket...
PredictQ Team· · 5 min
You’ve Been Paying a Tax on Every Bet You’ve Ever Made. Here’s How Much.
There’s a number sitting somewhere in your betting history that nobody has ever shown you....
PredictQ Team· · 4 min
The QB Tax and Three Other Things You Need to Know Before Buying an NFL Futures Position
We are just four weeks out from the regular season, so let's talk strategy when it comes to buying Futures contracts for the upcoming NFL season....
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
What’s Hot – The PredictQ Culture Radar: Big Brother, GTA VI and Taylor Swift
Big Brother and GTA VI are the headliners for the second week in a row....
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
Who Plays NFL Week 1? Using Underdog Predict's Markets
As we approach the kickoff to the NFL season, and the fantasy football world is in the midst of drafting, on top of minds is who will or won't be read...
Justin Herzig· · 3 min
What’s Hot – The PredictQ Culture Radar
Week of August 17, 2026. Big Brother and GTA VI are the headliners. Every Monday, we run hundreds of topics across thousands of active Kalshi Entertai...
Trevor Glisson· · 5 min
An Open Letter to the Company Acquiring Underdog Fantasy
My fear, which I know from talking to other badge-wearers is widely shared: What happens to the app I love?...
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
How to Trade Politics on Kalshi and Polymarket
Take the ask on a coin-flip political market and you’re paying about what a sportsbook charges. The advantage is real, it just lives somewhere specifi...
PredictQ Team· · 7 min
The Kalshi Midterms Hub, Reviewed
Kalshi’s hub is a run at the job Cook Political Report has held for forty years, and it mostly works. What each piece is for, the 27 point parlay hidi...
PredictQ Team· · 7 min
Prediction Markets 101: The Questions You're Too Embarrassed to Ask
What a prediction market is A prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell contracts tied to whether a specific event happens. Every contra...
PredictQ Team· · 11 min
Why I’m Forever Done with Futures Bets on Sportsbooks
Last year I placed a $100 bet on Drake Maye to win MVP at +6600 odds during the preseason. By late December, after Maye torched the Jets with five tou...
Justin Herzig· · 5 min
Best Prediction Markets in 2026: Complete Comparison of All 10 Major Platforms
June 2026 was the single busiest month in the history of this industry. Robinhood’s exchange venture Rothera went live June 4....
PredictQ Team· · 16 min
5 Ways to Make Money in Prediction Markets
The #1 question I get from people new to prediction markets is what should I be doing to make money. That’s no surprise given the way these platforms ...
Justin Herzig· · 9 min
Polymarket vs ProphetX: Broad CFTC Exchange or Sports-Native Peer-to-Peer Exchange?
ProphetX pulled it off. On June 11, 2026 the CFTC approved it as both a designated contract market and a clearinghouse, the first sports-native exchan...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Polymarket vs Underdog Predict: Broad Markets or DFS Integration?
Underdog Predict exists for one type of person: someone who already has the Underdog Fantasy app open. It lives as a tab inside the same app as pick’e...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Polymarket vs OG.com: Two Crypto-Adjacent Prediction Markets Compared
Crypto.com wants a piece of prediction markets badly enough that it built a whole separate brand for it. OG.com launched February 3, 2026, powered and...
PredictQ Team· · 5 min
Polymarket vs Novig: Established CFTC Exchange or Peer-to-Peer Sports Upstart?
The upstart shipped. Novig’s regulated exchange is live, the sweepstakes app is retired, and the CFTC designation behind it (Ludlow Exchange LLC, appr...
PredictQ Team· · 5 min
Polymarket vs Coinbase Predict: Two Crypto-Native Approaches Compared
Two platforms courting the same crypto-native trader, built on opposite architectures. Polymarket owns its exchange: it bought QCEX, a CFTC-licensed e...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Polymarket vs FanDuel Predicts: Political Markets or Sportsbook Brand?
FanDuel Predicts killed its best feature. Through early June 2026, its $25 welcome bonus required no deposit at all; you verified your identity and go...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Polymarket vs DraftKings Predictions: Crypto-Native Exchange or Sportsbook-Style Prediction Markets?
DraftKings Predictions will not sell you a sports contract if you live in a state where DraftKings Sportsbook operates. Read that again, because it de...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Polymarket vs Robinhood: Crypto-Native Exchange or Brokerage Integration?
By June 2026, Polymarket’s regulated U.S. platform was clearing over $200 million in daily volume and passed a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate....
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Kalshi vs ProphetX: CFTC Exchange or Sports-Native Peer-to-Peer?
ProphetX pulled it off. On June 11, 2026, the CFTC approved it as both a designated contract market and a clearinghouse, the first sports-native excha...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Kalshi vs Underdog Predict: Broad Categories or DFS Integration?
Underdog Predict lives inside the Underdog Fantasy app, one tab over from the pick’em contests and best ball drafts that built one of the biggest DFS ...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Kalshi vs OG.com: Established Exchange or Crypto.com-Powered Brokerage?
OG.com is Crypto.com’s swing at prediction markets, launched February 3, 2026 and powered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-reg...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min
Kalshi vs Novig: Broad Event Exchange or Sports-Native No-Vig Exchange?
Novig’s regulated exchange is live. The CFTC designated its Ludlow Exchange LLC as a contract market on June 16, 2026, roughly five months after filin...
PredictQ Team· · 6 min