How the model's Week 6 board held up, plus the Week 7 outlook.
Each week we run our NFL model, a Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 weeks, to estimate fair probabilities for the weekly fantasy finish markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US. It counts how often each player leads his position or finishes top five. This week we recap Week 6, look back at model performance, and analyze the Week 7 board.
Week 6 recap
Week 6 was a weird week in the NFL and a middle-of-the-road week for the model. We saw low scoring across the board with Christian McCaffrey on Monday night being the only player to eclipse 30 PPR fantasy points. Yes, you read that right. Not a single player had 30 PPR fantasy points on Sunday. McCaffrey (third choice, 10.5%) won running back, and Isaiah Likely (fifth, 5.3%) took tight end for the second straight week. The other two leaders came from deeper on the board,…