Survivor Optimizer: Second Chance

Posted market lines versus our projections is marked in the band above the week numbers. Where books have not opened a game yet, W% comes from team power ratings that update automatically every day, dated in that band. A * flags a single unposted game inside a week that otherwise has lines.

P% is the projected share of live entries on each team, from a model fitted on six seasons of Circa Survivor pick counts: 3,058 team-legs, 2020 through 2025. Graded only on seasons it never saw, it names the most-picked team 55% of the time, and when it calls a 30% pick the field really does land near 30%. It counts entries rather than picks, so a double pick week totals 200%. Circa's field is sharper than this one, so if anything it understates how much of the field piles onto the favourite.

EV is what a pick is worth, not how likely it is to win. Surviving a week only helps you to the extent other entries did not, so EV divides your chance of surviving by the share of the field that survives alongside you, then charges you for the team you spend. The column is scaled against what the field's average pick is worth this week, priced for an entry holding what the crowd holds, so 1.00 is the field's average pick: above 1.00 beats what the crowd is doing, below 1.00 loses to it. That benchmark never moves with your own board, so locking teams out or spending your best teams lowers the column rather than redefining what average means. A team 40% of the field is on can win and still be worth less than a quieter pick that wins a little less often.

W% converts the live point spread to a win probability. The blue dot marks a divisional game, where rivalry variance is higher.

RV is remaining value: the best win probability that team has in any week still ahead of you, which is what the team is worth if you keep it. It is the reason to wait. A high RV is the argument against spending a team now, and it is why the optimizer will pass over a good pick this week to hold that team for a week with nothing else in it. Read it beside EV: a pick that clears 1.00 on a team with nothing ahead of it costs you nothing to make. RV is blank for a signed out visitor, because it is computed from weeks a guest is not sent.