The Football Gold model creates an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model covering weather, rest, location and scheduling (25%), and a composite of publicly available power ratings (50%). We turn the projected spread into a win probability, then compare it with the quoted market.
The approach produced a 66-52-3 record in 2025, a 56% win rate excluding pushes and a gain of 8.5 units. In 2026, it's started 25-12, a 67.6% win rate and a gain of 14 units. The broader modeling process has also helped produce five Circa Millions cashes in the past five years, including two Top-100 finishes in 2025. Those are our reported results, not a promise about what comes next.
PredictQ record: 8-3, +8.17 units
We're looking for games where our model sees a team's chances differently than the market. Picking the winner is only part of it. The price matters.
This week, four teams stand out: the Eagles, Saints, Seahawks, and Lions.
Scheduling advantages are a major theme again this week. From international travel and overtime games to short weeks and teams coming off a bye, our model is identifying several situations where the market might not be properly accounting for rest and location.
Not all four teams are particularly appealing on the surface. But that's exactly why we're looking at the price rather than simply trying to predict the winner.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Football Gold Composite: Eagles 47%
Quoted market probability: 35.1% at DraftKings
Model gap: 11.9 percentage points
This is our largest pricing discrepancy of Week 7, and it's not a spot we’re jumping with joy to take. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the rest of the season, Tanner McKee takes over, and Philadelphia's offense has become one of the easiest units in football to defend. There's also a legitimate argument that Howie Roseman should start looking toward the future rather than trying to salvage this season.
But how much further can we downgrade the Eagles? We've already downgraded our power ratings as much as we possibly could, and yet our composite still makes Dallas just a slight favorite. The Cowboys are playing their third road game in four weeks, and their second consecutive primetime road game. Our model puts the Eagles at 47%, while DraftKings' market price implies 35.1%. This is a classic hold-your-nose-and-take-the-price situation.
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Football Gold Composite: Saints 47%
Quoted market probability: 38.1% at ProphetX
Model gap: 8.9 percentage points
I'm not convinced Pittsburgh is nearly as good as its record suggests. The Steelers needed a fourth-quarter comeback against Tampa Bay last week, and their offense was pretty pedestrian for most of that game. New Orleans wasn't particularly impressive against the Giants either, benefiting from four turnovers while being outgained by 1.7 net yards per play. Tyler Shough continues to be excellent in the red zone, but his hand injury and the loss of Cesar Ruiz are legitimate concerns against Pittsburgh's pass rush.
The biggest advantage for New Orleans is situational. The Saints traveled to Paris early, while Pittsburgh is coming off a road overtime game and will be playing away from home for the third time in four weeks. Our composite makes this much closer to a coin flip, giving the Saints a 47% chance to win compared to just 38.1% at ProphetX. Pittsburgh might be the better team, but I'm not convinced the difference is nearly as large as the market suggests.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Football Gold Composite: Seahawks 64%
Quoted market probability: 57.8% at ProphetX
Model gap: 6.2 percentage points
I expect Kansas City to be a very popular side this week, but I'm not sure the Chiefs have earned that level of respect. Their schedule has included Denver, Indianapolis, Miami, Las Vegas and the Chargers, and they needed close wins against the Colts and Raiders, allowing 27+ points in both games. Seattle is a different challenge, especially at home, where the Seahawks have one of the NFL's biggest advantages and a defense we still consider a top-three unit.
The concern is Seattle's offense. Sam Darnold looked rattled against Denver, and the offensive line has not nearly been the same unit it was in 2025. Getting Zach Charbonnet back would help, but this team desperately needs to establish a running game. Still, Seattle has additional rest following its Thursday night game, and Kansas City hasn't faced an opponent of this caliber. Our composite gives Seattle a 64% chance to win compared to 57.8% at ProphetX. I think the market is overvaluing Kansas City's record and undervaluing just how difficult this matchup could be.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Football Gold Composite: Lions 67%
Quoted market probability: 61.8% at BetRivers
Model gap: 5.2 percentage points
Green Bay is playing some excellent football, particularly offensively, where Jordan Love continues to impress. The defense has also improved considerably, allowing the second-fewest yards per completion in the NFL. But there are some underlying concerns. The Packers are tied for the league lead with 11 takeaways, but they’re allowing a 43.6% offensive success rate. When the turnovers regress, the defense might look quite a bit worse.
The situational advantage here is enormous for Detroit. The Lions are coming off a bye and have a 17-day rolling net rest advantage over Green Bay, one of the largest discrepancies we've seen this season. That's particularly valuable against a divisional opponent that knows your personnel and tendencies so well. Our composite gives the Lions a 67% chance to win compared to 61.8% at BetRivers. Green Bay is a quality team, but this is a brutal spot to face Detroit on the road.
The common theme this week is scheduling, although a couple of these prices require us to overlook some pretty significant concerns.
New Orleans has a considerable rest advantage over Pittsburgh in Paris. Seattle gets Kansas City at home with additional preparation time, while Detroit comes off its bye with one of the largest net rest advantages of the season.
Philadelphia is a different story. The Eagles are a difficult team to trust right now, but our model still gives them a much better chance of beating Dallas than the market suggests. At some point, the price has to account for just how far expectations have fallen.
As always, these are pricing discrepancies, not guarantees. The numbers can change quickly, particularly with quarterback injuries still unresolved. Before acting, compare the available price and fees against our model's estimate. You can find PredictQ's partner links on the platform sign-up page.
So which of these four teams would you be most comfortable backing this week: the Eagles without Jalen Hurts, the Saints in Paris, the Seahawks against Patrick Mahomes or the Lions against the best deep passing game in the NFL?
This article includes links to PredictQ partner ProphetX. We may earn a commission if you use them. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice. Prices, odds and entry counts can change, and fees can affect the price you actually pay.