Research & Analysis
The edge, written down
Expert breakdowns, strategy notes, and the sharpest signals from the prediction market ecosystem.
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 4
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
cole wyman· · 9 min read
Week 3 Market Movers: Gibbs Pulls Away, and a Rookie Takes Over
It’s a wrap for Week 3. A week I am dubbing “the week of true colors” as we can no longer use arguments of rust to make excuses for player or team per...
Trevor Glisson· · 6 min
El Niño Is Strengthening: What Could It Mean for Weather Markets?
El Niño could reshape U.S. weather this winter, shifting storm tracks and increasing the importance of clouds, rain, and forecast uncertainty in weath...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
How a Top Prediction Market Trader Finds an Edge: Inside Domer's Process
Domer, one of the top prediction market traders, on pricing events that have never happened, Kelly sizing, his six-figure James Bond position, the fiv...
PredictQ Team· · 29 min
Analyzing Kalshi and Polymarket Weekly Fantasy Football Markets
If you have ever built a DFS lineup, you have already done the hard part of this trade. Whether you built Monte Carlo sims or cooked up a lineup on yo...
John Breslin· · 13 min
From Fantasy Football to Prediction Markets: How Justin Herzig Finds an Edge
PredictQ co-founder Justin Herzig on groupthink, pricing, market making in thin fantasy markets, the in-game mistake that cost him edge, and how he'd ...
PredictQ Team· · 27 min
What Circa's Week 1 Ownership Tells Us About the Splash Field
Circa posts its survivor ownership every Saturday night. Week 1 shows how closely it maps to the Splash field, where the two diverge most, and what we...
PredictQ Team· · 2 min
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets By Peter Nickerson, Climate & Weather Analyst — September 11, 2026 Winning t...
Peter Nickerson· · 7 min
NFL Survivor Strategy: A Survival Guide to Large Field Contests.
How to actually win large-field survivor contests....
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
How a Prediction Market Trader Finds an Edge: Brett Hartfiel Interview
How a Prediction Market Trader Finds an Edge: Brett Hartfiel Interview A Q&A with Brett Hartfiel The Prediction Market Show, Episode 1 · PredictQ Sour...
PredictQ Team· · 22 min
When Should You Trade Tomorrow's High Temperature?
When should you trade tomorrow’s high-temperature market? This article compares market open, overnight model updates, morning observations, and late-m...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
High vs. Low Temperature Markets: Why They Behave Differently
High and low temperature markets may look similar, but the weather processes behind them are very different. Using roughly 160 days of forecast data f...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
Forecast Biases in Models and Cities
Understanding biases in temperature forecasts can allow traders to make more informed decisions about which cities are more consistent or more volatil...
Peter Nickerson· · 4 min
EXCLUSIVE: Buy 10, Get 1 Free On Splash Sports Survivor Contests
Code PREDICTQ adds a free 11th entry for every 10 you buy into either Splash Sports NFL Survivor contest, the $21M World Championship or the $3M Big S...
PredictQ Team· · 5 min
You’ve Been Paying a Tax on Every Bet You’ve Ever Made. Here’s How Much.
There’s a number sitting somewhere in your betting history that nobody has ever shown you....
PredictQ Team· · 4 min
The QB Tax and Three Other Things You Need to Know Before Buying an NFL Futures Position
We are just four weeks out from the regular season, so let's talk strategy when it comes to buying Futures contracts for the upcoming NFL season....
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
Prediction Markets 101: The Questions You're Too Embarrassed to Ask
What a prediction market is A prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell contracts tied to whether a specific event happens. Every contra...
PredictQ Team· · 11 min
The Creator Economy Meets Prediction Markets: Why 2026 Will Be the Year of Market Influencers
The Creator Economy Meets Prediction Markets: Why 2026 Will Be the Year of Market Influencers I've spent the last decade as a semi-professional daily ...
PredictQ Team· · 5 min