By PredictQ Team // Updated: July 2026
Novig got its CFTC exchange license. On June 16, 2026, the agency designated Novig’s Ludlow Exchange LLC as a contract market, one of the fastest approvals on record at roughly five months from application. The regulated exchange launches in Q3 2026, by end of summer per the company. Until then, Novig’s sweepstakes product is what you can actually use today, so this comparison covers both the platform as it exists and the platform arriving in a few months.
Kalshi needs less introduction: the CFTC-designated exchange trading since 2021, clearing its own trades since 2024, now valued at $22 billion after a $1 billion raise.
Quick Verdict
Today, Kalshi. It’s real money, federally regulated end to end, with hundreds of markets across every category and nationwide availability outside a few contested sports states. Novig’s current sweepstakes product is a fun sports exchange with the best percentage-return bonus in the space ($50 in Novig Coins for a $5 spend), but sweepstakes mechanics, a roughly 40-state footprint, and prize-style tax treatment keep it in second place. Come Q3, when Novig relaunches as a regulated exchange with near-nationwide reach, this comparison gets a rewrite. For now the bonus is worth grabbing; the serious bankroll belongs on Kalshi.
Snapshot
Regulatory status: Kalshi, CFTC-designated exchange and clearinghouse, operating since 2021. Novig, CFTC-designated contract market as of June 16, 2026, regulated launch expected Q3; sweepstakes product live in the meantime.
Welcome bonus: Kalshi, trade $10 and get $10. Novig, spend $5 and get $50 in Novig Coins on the current sweepstakes app.
States: Kalshi nationwide federally (sports blocked in Michigan, contested in New York). Novig in 40-plus states today, with California out entirely under its sweepstakes ban; nationwide access expected after the regulated launch.
Markets: Kalshi runs politics, sports, economics, crypto, weather, climate, culture. Novig is sports-first with smaller financial, crypto, and culture offerings.
Trade structure: Kalshi is an order book where you buy Yes or No at market price or rest limit orders. Novig is a peer-to-peer exchange where users set their own odds and match against each other, no house margin in the line.
Money: Kalshi is real dollars throughout. Novig currently runs dual currency: Novig Coins for free play, Novig Cash redeemable with a 1x playthrough and $20 minimum.
What the June Approval Changes
Everything about how you should frame Novig, and nothing about what you can trade this afternoon.
The old knock on Novig was regulatory limbo: a sweepstakes product with a CFTC application of uncertain fate. That’s dead. The CFTC signed off, and it did so quickly. Novig also has capital behind the transition: a $75 million Series B led by Pantera in February 2026 at a roughly $500 million valuation.
What hasn’t changed yet: your money on Novig today still lives under sweepstakes rules, not CFTC customer-fund segregation. Winnings still get prize-income tax treatment rather than the capital-gains treatment Kalshi’s event contracts receive. State availability still depends on state sweepstakes law, which is why California is off the map (its AB 831 ban took effect January 1, 2026).
The Exchange Model
Novig’s core mechanic survives the transition and it’s worth understanding. Instead of taking a posted price, you can post your own odds and wait for another user to match. It’s the Betfair idea applied to US sports: no bookmaker margin baked into the line, prices set by the crowd.
Kalshi’s order book does the same job with different vocabulary. Limit orders on Kalshi are functionally offers at your price. The difference is culture and focus: Novig is built by and for sports bettors who hate the vig; Kalshi is built as a general-purpose event exchange where sports is one deep category among many.
Fee note: Kalshi’s taker fee peaks at $1.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents, with makers paying a quarter of that. Novig markets itself on no house margin with low fees; exact terms for the regulated Q3 product haven’t been published, so watch for the official schedule at relaunch.
When to Pick Kalshi
You want real-money trading under full CFTC customer protections today, not in Q3.
You want categories beyond sports: politics, econ, weather, culture.
You’re in California or another state Novig’s sweepstakes model can’t reach.
You want capital-gains tax treatment on your trading profits.
You’re deploying a bankroll you’d hate to have sitting in a transitioning product.
Kalshi sign-up bonus: trade $10, get $10 →
When to Pick Novig
You want the richest welcome offer in prediction markets: $50 in Novig Coins for $5.
You’re a sports-only trader who wants to name your own price and get matched peer-to-peer.
You like getting positioned on a platform before its regulated relaunch broadens access to all 50 states.
You’ve already got Kalshi and want a second venue for line-shopping sports prices.
You’re in an eligible state and fine with sweepstakes mechanics for a few more months.
Both?
Easy yes. The combined onboarding value is about $60, the market overlap is sports-only, and comparing prices across a regulated order book and a peer-to-peer exchange occasionally surfaces genuine discrepancies. Keep the size on Kalshi until Novig’s regulated exchange is live and its fee schedule is public.
Bottom Line
Novig graduated. The CFTC license moves it from “interesting sweepstakes app” to “future regulated exchange,” and the June approval was fast enough to signal the agency takes it seriously. But futures don’t pay bills. Today, Kalshi offers more markets, more states, real dollars, and five years of regulated operating history.
Grab Novig’s $50 bonus, then trade where the depth is. Revisit in the fall when Novig’s real product ships. Get started with Kalshi.
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of July 2026. Kalshi operates a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and clearinghouse; its sports contracts are blocked or contested in several states. Novig received CFTC designation as a contract market (Ludlow Exchange LLC) in June 2026 and currently operates a peer-to-peer sports prediction product under a sweepstakes framework pending its regulated launch, expected Q3 2026. Trading event contracts and sweepstakes-based sports prediction involves significant risk. This content is for informational purposes only. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.