By PredictQ Team // Updated: July 2026
A year ago this was the coin-flip comparison in prediction markets. It isn’t anymore. In May 2026, Kalshi did $17.9 billion in monthly turnover to Polymarket’s $7.1 billion, then confirmed a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation and printed a record June on World Cup volume. Polymarket is still the biggest crypto-native market globally and passed a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate in June, so this is a fight between two heavyweights. But one of them is clearly ahead in the US.
Both platforms sit at the top regulatory tier. Kalshi runs its own CFTC-designated exchange and clearinghouse. Polymarket relaunched in the US in December 2025 on a CFTC-licensed exchange it bought outright. Everything below them in the market is a broker routing orders to someone else’s exchange.
Quick Verdict
For most US traders, Kalshi is the pick. Deeper books across more categories, availability in more states, the longer regulated track record. Polymarket wins two specific fights: its Geopolitics category trades at genuinely zero fees, and its political order books remain among the deepest anywhere. If you trade world events or politics heavily and live in an eligible state, Polymarket earns a spot. If you’re picking one platform, pick Kalshi.
The bonuses stack, though. Kalshi pays $10 for trading $10. Polymarket pays a $20 trading bonus on a $10 deposit. That’s $30 in combined value for opening two accounts, and the markets don’t fully overlap.
Side-by-Side Snapshot
The facts that separate them:
Track record: KalshiEX got its CFTC exchange designation in November 2020 and opened public trading in 2021. Polymarket relaunched in the US December 2, 2025 after acquiring the CFTC-licensed QCEX exchange for $112 million.
Welcome bonus: Kalshi, trade $10 and get $10. Polymarket, deposit $10 and get a $20 trading bonus.
Fees: Kalshi uses one probability-weighted formula everywhere. Polymarket prices by category, from 0% on Geopolitics up to a crypto rate that matches Kalshi’s peak.
State availability: Kalshi operates nationwide at the federal level, with sports contracts blocked or contested in a few states. Polymarket is live in roughly 38-40 states and unavailable in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Nevada, and a half-dozen others.
Volume: Kalshi now leads overall US volume by a wide margin. Polymarket keeps the deepest political and geopolitical books.
User base: Kalshi pulls traditional finance and sports traders. Polymarket pulls crypto-native users and the political trading crowd it built during the 2024 election.
Regulation: Same Tier, Different Paths
Kalshi has run its own CFTC-designated contract market since late 2020 and, since August 2024, clears its own trades through Kalshi Klear, its registered clearinghouse. Vertically integrated, exchange plus clearing, under one roof.
Polymarket took the acquisition route. It bought QCEX, an existing CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, and relaunched US access under an amended CFTC order in November 2025. US customers trade through an intermediated structure rather than directly on the venue. For a retail trader the protection is comparable: both are federally regulated, both answer to the CFTC. Kalshi’s structure is simply older and more battle-tested, including in court.
Fees: Read the Category, Then the Price
Kalshi charges 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price) to take liquidity. That peaks at $1.75 per 100 contracts on a coin-flip market and fades toward zero at the extremes. Maker orders pay a quarter of that.
Polymarket charges by category. Geopolitics is free, maker and taker. Sports takers pay a 0.03 rate, maxing at $0.75 per 100 shares at 50 cents. Politics is its own category now at 0.04 (max $1.00), so don’t assume political markets are free; only Geopolitics is. Crypto runs 0.07, identical to Kalshi’s peak math. Makers never pay fees on Polymarket and earn rebates.
The practical read: Polymarket is cheaper on sports at mid-range prices and unbeatable on geopolitics. Kalshi is cheaper at price extremes, where its formula rounds toward zero, and its S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 markets run a half-rate schedule. If you trade longshots and heavy favorites, Kalshi’s structure works in your favor. If you trade 50/50 sports markets, Polymarket saves you a dollar per hundred contracts.
Where You Can Actually Trade
This has become the biggest gap. Polymarket is available in roughly 38-40 states. New York is out. So are New Jersey, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, and Ohio, with Minnesota’s ban set for August 1, 2026 (the CFTC is challenging it). Desktop signups also hit a waitlist; mobile signup with a promo code skips it.
Kalshi operates nationwide under federal law, but its sports contracts have their own fights: a Michigan court blocked them by temporary order on June 30, 2026, and a New York judge ruled on July 8 that state gambling enforcement can proceed. Non-sports categories are broadly available everywhere. Check in-app eligibility for your state before funding either platform; this map moves monthly.
Pick Kalshi If
You want the broadest catalog: politics, sports, economics, crypto, weather, climate, culture.
You trade economic markets. Fed decisions, CPI prints, and jobs reports are deeper on Kalshi than anywhere else.
You want weather and climate markets. Nobody else runs them seriously.
You trade at price extremes, where Kalshi’s fee formula approaches zero.
You live in one of the ten-plus states where Polymarket doesn’t operate.
Kalshi welcome bonus: trade $10, get $10 →
Pick Polymarket If
Politics and world events are your main game. The political books are deep and the Geopolitics category is fee-free.
You’re crypto-native and want USDC funding with maker rebates paid daily.
You trade sports at mid-range prices, where the 0.03 taker rate undercuts Kalshi’s peak.
You want the bigger welcome bonus: $20 on a $10 deposit beats $10 for $10.
You’re in an eligible state. Confirm before you deposit.
Polymarket promo: deposit $10, get $20 →
Run Both?
If your state allows it, yes. Thirty dollars in stacked bonuses, complementary categories, and two fee schedules you can pick between per trade. Polymarket for geopolitics and political markets, Kalshi for economics, weather, and anything at extreme prices. The cost is managing capital across two accounts. For anyone trading more than casually, that cost is trivial next to the fee savings.
Bottom Line
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two real exchanges in US prediction markets, and the honest ranking has changed. Kalshi is bigger, available in more states, and stronger across more categories. Polymarket still owns geopolitics and remains the political trading venue of record.
Start with Kalshi. Add Polymarket if you trade politics or world events and your state lets you. Sign up with Kalshi, or try Polymarket.
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of July 2026. Kalshi operates a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and clearinghouse; Polymarket US operates through its CFTC-licensed QCEX exchange under an intermediated structure. Polymarket is unavailable in a number of US states, and Kalshi sports contracts are blocked or contested in several states; confirm eligibility in-app. Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all participants. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.