By PredictQ Team // Updated: August 2026
Underdog Predict is the only major prediction market that lives inside a fantasy sports app millions of people already have on their phones. That single fact drives everything good and everything limiting about the product. There’s no separate app, no new account if you’re already on Underdog, and no learning curve if you came up through DFS. The tradeoffs: it operates in 31 states plus Washington, D.C. (fewer than Kalshi or Polymarket), and it has no welcome bonus for prediction markets specifically. The pivot risk we flagged in earlier versions of this review has mostly resolved, and the receipts are below.
Start with the plumbing. Underdog Predict went live on September 2, 2025, with Underdog acting as a registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) and routing event contracts to Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), the CFTC-regulated exchange that also powers OG.com. Then on March 9, 2026, Underdog bought Aristotle Exchange, the CFTC-registered DCM and DCO behind PredictIt. That acquisition gave Underdog its own federally licensed exchange infrastructure, and in July 2026 the move finished. Predict now runs on Underdog’s own exchange, with clearing through its own DCO. Add the FCM registration and Underdog holds all three major CFTC licenses, a full stack only Kalshi and Robinhood can also claim. Your trades execute on Underdog’s own exchange today.
Here’s the full picture: what the platform is, how trading works inside the app, which markets you’ll find, and how to weigh Underdog Predict against the alternatives.
What Underdog Predict Is
Underdog Predict offers binary Yes/No event contracts on sports, culture, politics, and economics. Prices run from $0.01 to $0.99 and reflect real-time market probability. Winners pay $1 at settlement, losers pay $0. Same core model as Kalshi, Polymarket, and OG.com, delivered through the Underdog app you may already use for Drafts and Pick’em.
Underdog was founded in 2020 by Jeremy Levine, still CEO, and built its name as one of the largest DFS operators in North America before pivoting hard into prediction markets through 2025 and 2026.
The snapshot:
Launched September 2, 2025
Underdog Predict is a registered FCM, and trades execute on its own CFTC-registered exchange (DCM) with in-house clearing (DCO)
Own exchange live since July 2026, built on the Aristotle Exchange acquired in March 2026
Available in 31 states plus DC as of August 2026, including California, Texas, and Florida
18+ (state minimums may apply)
Built into the main Underdog app (iOS and Android) as a Predict section; no separate download
The Strategic Pivot
Underdog has been remaking itself. The company exited traditional state-licensed sports betting in late 2025, closing its North Carolina sportsbook on December 16, 2025 and pulling its Missouri license before that state’s December 1 launch. In late February 2026, it laid off roughly 125 employees, more than 20% of the workforce, with cuts across fraud operations, support, graphics, marketing, and the draft-based games line.
Levine framed the move as a shift from a state-by-state framework to a national prediction-markets platform. The logic holds up: prediction markets run under federal CFTC regulation instead of state gaming licenses, which means more jurisdictions with far less regulatory overhead than a multi-state sportsbook.
The Aristotle acquisition was the next step, and it paid off in July 2026 when Underdog launched its own exchange and stopped renting CDNA’s rails. The scoreboard since: third-largest US prediction markets venue by regulated volume behind Kalshi and Robinhood, roughly $466 million in net revenue for the twelve months ended June 30, 2026 (up 21% year over year), and about $46 million of EBITDA in Q2 2026. Profitable, in other words. Then on July 30, IG Group, the LSE-listed global trading firm, agreed to acquire the company for up to $1.3 billion, expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027 pending US regulatory approvals, with a stated focus on further investment into being the best prediction market for sports fans. On August 11, Noah Zingler-Sternig, Kalshi’s former Head of Operations, joined to help build it. We wrote up our hopes for the deal in our open letter to Underdog’s new owners.
How Trading Works
The flow inside the app is short. Open Underdog and tap the Predict section, which sits alongside Drafts for users in eligible states. Markets are organized by category: Sports, Culture, Politics, Economics.
Each market is a binary question with a live price. “Will the Lakers win their division?” might show Yes at $0.62 and No at $0.38. Pick your side and your size, and the trade executes through Underdog’s own order book at the current market price.
You don’t have to wait for the result. Positions can be sold before settlement at the current market price through the Track tab, which is how you lock in gains or cut losses. At settlement, winning contracts pay $1, losing contracts pay $0, and funds hit your Predict wallet within 24 hours of resolution.
Markets Available
Sports is the deepest category by volume: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football and basketball, soccer, tennis, with moneylines, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures.
Culture covers awards markets (Oscars, Grammys, Emmys) and spikes around awards season. Politics runs from presidential outcomes down to governor and senate races, primaries, and policy votes. Economics covers recession probability, Fed decisions, CPI prints, unemployment thresholds, and GDP markers.
What’s missing: climate and crypto markets, both standard elsewhere in the space. Underdog now controls its own listings, so watch for both. In conversations with PredictQ, the team has told us directly they want to build for true prediction market principles.
The App Integration
If you’re an Underdog DFS user, Predict costs you nothing to try. Same account, same KYC (existing users in eligible states can typically activate Predict without re-verifying), same visual identity. Predict is just another tab.
The integration goes deeper than convenience. Combo entries let you link DFS picks with Predict event contracts in a single multi-leg entry, which no other prediction market offers. One caveat: DFS and Predict keep separate payment rails, so deposits and withdrawals don’t flow between the two wallets.
The honest tradeoff is that event contracts are a genuinely different product from DFS. Different mechanics, different fees, federal rather than state regulation. The smooth integration makes it easy to start trading contracts without noticing you’ve switched games. Know which product you’re in.
Fees
Underdog Predict kept the flat fee model from its CDNA era, the same structure OG.com uses: a flat $0.02 per contract to open a position, $0.02 per contract if you sell before settlement, and nothing on positions held to settlement. Opening 100 contracts costs about $2. That’s fixed pricing rather than Kalshi’s probability-weighted formula or Polymarket’s category rates, and it favors traders who take a position and hold it. Full worked examples are in our Underdog Predict Fees article.
Pros
Built into the existing Underdog app, no separate platform
CFTC-regulated on Underdog’s own exchange, all three major licenses in-house
Profitable business, with IG Group’s up to $1.3 billion acquisition pending
Deep sports coverage across major U.S. leagues
Familiar interface for Underdog DFS users
Combo entries linking DFS picks and Predict contracts
Nobody gets limited or banned for winning
24-hour settlement on resolved contracts
Cons
31 states plus DC, narrower than Kalshi or Polymarket
No credit card deposits on Predict (debit only)
No climate or crypto markets
No limit orders yet, so you fill at the market price
DFS promotions don’t apply to Predict
The IG acquisition hasn’t closed yet, and ownership transitions can shuffle roadmaps
Exiting state-licensed sports betting concentrates the whole company on prediction markets working out
Who Should Use It
Underdog Predict fits existing Underdog DFS users best. If you’re already in the app and in an eligible state, activating Predict is free and takes minutes, and the sports coverage is solid across every major U.S. league. The interface is friendlier for people coming from DFS or sportsbooks than Kalshi’s financial-app feel or Polymarket’s crypto-native architecture.
If you’re evaluating prediction markets from scratch and mostly want politics, economics, or the biggest welcome bonus, Kalshi or Polymarket still make a strong first stop. But if sports is why you’re here, Underdog’s case is much stronger than it was six months ago: its own exchange, a profitable business, and an owner-to-be that says it wants to build the best prediction market for sports fans.
Bottom Line
Underdog Predict is a well-built, properly regulated product with a distribution advantage nobody else in the space has: it ships inside an app people already open every day. Since July 2026 it runs its own CFTC-regulated exchange with full control over listings and fees, the business turned profitable, and IG Group agreed to pay up to $1.3 billion for it. What looked like a promising feature a year ago is now the third-largest regulated prediction markets venue in the country.
Existing Underdog users in eligible states have the easiest on-ramp into prediction markets anywhere. Everyone else should weigh the missing bonus and narrower footprint against the convenience. You can get started with Underdog here.
Activate Predict inside the Underdog app →
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of August 2026. Underdog Predict is a registered FCM offering event contracts. Trades are placed on Underdog’s own CFTC-registered DCM and cleared through its own DCO. Trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all participants. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.