Week 6 was a coup. Two of the award boards got seized by a brand-new name at the top and some of the favorites they replaced got dog-walked clean off the lead. OPOY, and Rookie of the Year all changed hands in the span of a single Sunday. As we know, there must be fallers to fund the risers, and this week the market found plenty of both.
Below is what moved, why it moved and where there may be a gap between Kalshi and Polymarket.
A quick note on the numbers: all line moves below are Kalshi prices unless stated otherwise. Where Polymarket tells a different story, I've called it out. All prices recorded are at the time of writing and are subject to change. Changes between percentage prices are measured in percentage points, not relative percentage changes.
Who This Is For
A quick word before the numbers, because these boards read differently depending on why you showed up.
If you trade these markets: this is your watchlist, not your ticket. The moves below are where the money already went. Signal, not free money.
If you play fantasy: treat the board as a live perception gauge. A price climbing on a back like Walker is the market pricing in volume, role, and health before the box scores fully catch up, handy for buy-low/sell-high reads and rest-of-season value, even if you never put a dime on Kalshi.
If you’re just here for the storylines: this is the awards race as a live scoreboard. Who’s pulling away, who just got dog-walked, which favorite is one bad Sunday from being a falling knife.
Whatever bucket you’re in, one rule holds: every number below is a live price at time of writing, not a prediction.
Don’t Over-Read One Week. It’s October. These prices are built on five or six games, which means one loud Sunday, or an injury can swing a line double digits. That’s not always the market getting smarter; sometimes it’s just the market being recent. A coach jumping 20-plus points, or a rookie going from the back of the board to the front, is exactly the kind of move that can round-trip a week later when the next data point lands. Weekly movement is a direction, not a destination.
Without further ado, here is what moved from Week6.
All prices listed in chart above and mentioned below are recorded at time of writing are subject to change, and in some cases, quickly.
OPOY: KWIII Mugs the Field During Gibbs Week Off
Kenneth Walker III (15% → 27%, +12) is the big mover this week, a result of him shredding the lowly Chargers for 139 total yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday. After a seven-point drop during his bye, the former Super Bowl MVP has continued his dominant season. He's now the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. Through five games, he has 760 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns, giving him an absolutely jarring 17-game pace of 2,584 scrimmage yards and 27 total touchdowns.
Naturally, somebody had to pay for Walker’s huge rise and this time, it was the former leaders of this market. Jahmyr Gibbs (30% → 26%, -4) got hit during his week off, and Bijan Robinson (20% → 13%, -7) got nearly cut in half for his rough outing at home against the Bears. It was the first time this season he was held under 75 scrimmage yards. Ja’Marr Chase went from a live longshot to nearly buried during his Bye week (5% → 1%, -4) while JSN just refuses to stay down (6% → 12%, +6).
As it stands now, whoever takes this award may need to have a historic season to separate from everyone else behind him.
Meaningful Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps:
Kenneth Walker is 27% on Kalshi, 34% on Polymarket
Bijan is 13% on Kalshi, 6% on Polymarket
Coach of the Year: Shanahan and the Niners Keep Rolling
It’s hard to argue against a 6-0 team that also has a +67-point differential, and the market is choosing to reward the coaching for their success to start the season. Kyle Shanahan is keeping the status quo on the board, sitting as the favorite for the second week in a row after the Niners won on MNF. They have dates with the Falcons, Raiders and Cowboys upcoming.
Todd Monken (7% → 16%, +9) is the big riser and closest chaser to Shanahan. The Browns have been one of the biggest surprises this season, sitting at 4-2 after their Divisional win against the Ravens. They get the 1-5 Titans, then the Steelers and Saints up next.
Kevin O’Connell and Ben Johnson are both treading water at 9% on Kalshi, tied for third in this race.
Meaningful Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps:
Kyle Shanahan is the favorite on both sites, 29% on Kalshi and a gigantic 34% on Polymarket
Will the market readjust if the Niners falter in a game, or is this just Shanahan's year?
Rookie of the Year Stays Messy
Once again, this market has been flipped on its head with two rookies that stamped their way to the top with great Sundays.
Carnell Tate (12% → 29%, +17) continues his personal trend of weekly 180s in the market after the Titans got their first win behind his 70 yards and a touchdown performance. He is the leading favorite by a good margin, will he come back down to earth again next week is the rookie breakout among us?
Germie Bernard (~1% → 11%, +10) materialized out of seemingly nothing after having the best game of career (11 catches for 87 yards and a TD) on Sunday that included the game winner in Overtime against the Bucs. Is this a thin book getting excited or is Bernard the solidified #2 for Aaron Rodgers?
On the flip side, the deposed favorites got diced up pretty good. Jeremiyah Love (25% → 13%, -12) didn’t suit up and the market doesn’t like injured players. Denzel Boston (24% → 15%, -9) shriveled a bit after only grabbing one ball in the win. This is a weekly reminder how quickly this board churns, there’s been a new favorite nearly every week.
Do we finally get a week where a favorite holds their spot or is this one destined to change?
Meaningful Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps:
The exchanges don’t agree on Bernard, as Kalshi is showing him at 11%, and Polymarket at 20%
Jeremiyah Love is holding 13% on Kalshi but is way down to 6% on Polymarket
MVP Stays a Two Man Party
Josh Allen continues to do what Josh Allen does and the market is recognizing him for it. He is up to 32% from last weeks 27% after getting the win and throwing for 250 and 2. He has a bye week upcoming, will the market maintain this price or will he fall off a little bit for not playing?
Brock Purdy (28% → 33%, +5) is the current favorite I’m seeing but he and Josh have been trading places all morning. Purdy and Shanahan both lead their respective awards, if the market is correct, they’d join the company of the 2019 Ravens and 2015 Panthers to have a coach win COY and the QB win MVP.
The rest of the field is battling for scraps trying to keep up with the Stallion in Josh Allen and the wagon that is the Niners and Purdy. Who do you think runs away with this?
DPOY Remains Anderson’s Fortress
Will Anderson (46% → 40%, -6) remains the landlord in this market, he gave back a few points but no one else is close enough for him to be worried as of yet. This market may just stay lopsided until the sack numbers say otherwise.
Fred Warner (7% → 15%, +8) has his big move slide him up to second behind the goliath of Will Anderson.
Anderson’s price is the most dominant out of all the awards, does anyone chase him down or is this race all but over?
Super Bowl: The Niners Took the Point
San Francisco is now the outright favorite on the board (13% → 17%, +3), and they did it partly on the backs of their own conference. The Los Angeles Rams took the ugliest print of the week up top (11% → 7%, −4) and Seattle faded with them (9% → 6%, −3), so the entire NFC West repriced around the Niners. Buffalo (12%) and Kansas City (11%) held firm as the AFC's co-anchors.
Elsewhere the risers were quieter but real: Minnesota (3% → 5%), New England (2% → 4%), and Detroit (2% → 4%) all got a bump. San Francisco sitting clear at the top of a Super Bowl board in Week 6. Can anyone beat the Niners?
Week 7: The Swing Factors
Will Gibbs answer Walker's call? Let’s see if the Lion can retake the throne after his bye week or if KWIII continues his ascension.
Shanahan's number vs. the field. 29% is a lot of COY juice for mid-October. If the Niners stumble, there's a pile of points sitting there to be given back to the field.
The rookie carousel. This market has been an absolute roller coaster on a weekly basis; it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw more major changes next week.
Allen or Purdy blinks first. The MVP race is a two-man standoff. The first defining performance or faceplant can move this number in a hurry.
Let us know in the Discord which one of these flips first for you!
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