By PredictQ Team // Updated: August 2026
Underdog Predict puts a CFTC-regulated prediction market inside the same app millions of people use for daily fantasy. It launched September 2, 2025, the first sports gaming operator to build event contract trading into a fantasy platform, and it offers binary Yes/No contracts on sports, culture, politics, and economics. Less than a year later, it’s running its own CFTC-licensed exchange and IG Group has agreed to acquire the company for up to $1.3 billion.
That integration is the defining design choice. Kalshi, Polymarket, and OG.com are standalone platforms you have to seek out. Underdog Predict is a tab in an app you may already open daily. Underneath the familiar interface, the mechanics follow the exact same federally regulated event contract model as everyone else. Here’s how the whole thing works, end to end.
The Core Concept
You’re trading binary contracts on real-world events. Each contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and that price is the market’s implied probability of the outcome. A Yes contract at $0.58 means the market puts the odds at 58%. Winning contracts pay $1.00 at settlement, losing contracts pay $0.00.
The prices move with trading activity, which is what separates this from a sportsbook. You’re not betting against a house that sets the line. You’re buying and selling against other traders, and you can exit whenever the market is open.
Regulatory and Operating Structure
This is where 2026 changed the picture. In July, Underdog launched its own exchange, and it now holds all three major CFTC licenses in-house:
A Designated Contract Market (DCM), the exchange where the contracts trade.
A Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), the clearinghouse that guarantees every settlement.
A Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), the brokerage registration that lets it serve retail customers directly.
Only about three companies in the country run that fully vertically integrated stack, and the other two are Kalshi and Robinhood. Predict used to route trades through CDNA (Crypto.com Derivatives North America) while the Aristotle Exchange acquisition cleared the pipeline. That era is over. Your trades now execute, clear, and settle under Underdog’s own roof.
How a Trade Works
Open the Underdog app and go to the Predict section, which sits alongside Drafts for users in eligible states.
Browse markets by category: Sports, Culture, Politics, Economics.
Read the market. Every listing is a binary question with a live price. “Will the Lakers make the conference finals?” might show Yes at $0.55 and No at $0.45.
Pick a side. Buy Yes if you think it happens, No if you don’t.
Enter your contract quantity and place the trade. Orders execute at the current market price through Underdog’s own order book. Limit orders aren’t supported yet.
Hold or sell early. The Track tab shows your positions and lets you exit at the market price any time before settlement.
At settlement, winners pay $1, losers pay $0, and funds hit your Predict wallet within 24 hours.
Markets Available
Sports carries the deepest liquidity: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football and basketball, soccer, and tennis, in formats covering moneylines, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures.
Culture means awards markets (Oscars, Grammys, Emmys), busiest around awards season. Politics spans presidential races, governor and senate contests, and primaries, with state-level markets alongside federal. Economics covers recession odds, Fed decisions, CPI thresholds, and GDP markers.
Two absences worth flagging: no climate markets and no crypto markets, both of which exist elsewhere in the space. Now that Underdog runs its own exchange and controls its own listings, watch for those categories to show up.
Position Sizing
Every contract settles at $1 or $0, so your position size is simply price times quantity. Twenty contracts at $0.58 costs $11.60 plus fees. Two hundred contracts at the same price costs $116 plus fees. There’s no minimum sophistication gate; the $10 minimum deposit is the only floor, which makes it easy to start small and scale as you learn how the markets move.
The Combo Entry Feature
Underdog’s one true exclusive: combo entries that mix DFS picks with Predict event contracts in a single multi-leg entry. A combo might pair a DFS player prop (Player X scores 25+ points) with a Predict contract (Yes on Team X winning). Both legs must hit, and the combined payout beats either leg alone.
The mechanics are built to preserve the legal wall between DFS (state-regulated fantasy) and Predict (federally regulated event contracts), with combos running on the DFS entry structure. Nobody else in prediction markets offers this, because nobody else owns both products.
Fees
The fee model is flat and short: $0.02 per contract to open, $0.02 per contract to close early, $0 on positions held to settlement. Opening 100 contracts costs $2. Holding to resolution means you never pay an exit fee, win or lose. Full worked examples live in our Underdog Predict Fees article.
Funding and Withdrawals
Predict runs separate payment rails from DFS. Deposits: debit card, PayPal, Venmo, or Trustly bank transfer, with a $10 minimum. Credit cards are not accepted on Predict, even though DFS takes them. Withdrawals use the same four methods, free, with most processing inside 24 to 72 hours.
Trading Hours
Markets run around the clock, with a weekly exchange maintenance window on Saturday mornings, typically 4:00-5:00 AM ET. If an event has a market, you can trade it at 2 AM on a Tuesday.
Settlement Rules
Three rules worth memorizing:
Standard settlement: winners pay $1, losers pay $0 at event resolution.
Cancelled events: postponed, cancelled, or incomplete within 48 hours of scheduled start means the exchange treats it as a Cancelled Event. Yes positions settle at the volume-weighted average trading price from the week before cancellation, No positions get $1 minus that amount, and opening fees are refunded.
Ties: a draw with no tie outcome listed pays both sides $0.50 per contract, fees not refunded.
These matter most for sports, where postponements and draws actually happen.
The Aristotle Migration, Completed
This section used to be forward-looking. It isn’t anymore. In July 2026, Underdog moved Predict off the CDNA partnership and onto its own exchange, built on the Aristotle DCM and DCO it bought in March 2026. That launch made it the third-largest US prediction markets venue by regulated volume, behind Kalshi and Robinhood.
The momentum goes past infrastructure. On July 30, 2026, IG Group, the LSE-listed global trading firm, agreed to acquire Underdog for up to $1.3 billion, roughly $1.1 billion upfront in cash and shares plus an earnout tied to 2026 performance. The deal is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027, pending US regulatory approvals, and IG’s stated focus is further investment into being the best prediction market for sports fans. We wrote up our hopes and worries in our open letter to Underdog’s new owners. Then on August 11, Noah Zingler-Sternig, the former Head of Operations at Kalshi who led its Robinhood integration, joined Underdog to build what he called the best exchange for sports fans.
In conversations with PredictQ, the team has told us directly that they want to build for true prediction market principles. Now that Underdog controls its own listings, watch for expanded markets, and expect fees and settlement terms to keep evolving as the exchange matures.
The Distinction from PredictIt
Through the Aristotle deal, Underdog also owns PredictIt, the long-running politics-focused prediction market. PredictIt serves a different audience and operates as a separate business. Accounts, funding, and trading don’t cross between PredictIt and Underdog Predict. Same owner, different products.
A First Trade, Start to Finish
You sign up for Underdog, claiming the Play $5, Get $50 DFS bonus on the fantasy side.
Once verified, you activate Predict by confirming state eligibility.
You deposit $50 to the Predict wallet via Trustly.
You find an NBA playoff game where you like the home team.
The market shows the home side at $0.58, a 58% implied probability.
You buy 20 contracts at $0.58. Position cost: $11.60. Open fee: 20 x $0.02 = $0.40. Total outlay: $12.00.
The home team wins.
Your 20 contracts pay $1 each, $20 total, and the exit fee is $0 because you held to settlement.
Net profit: $8.00 on a $12.00 outlay.
The $20 is withdrawable within 24 hours, or it’s your bankroll for the next trade.
What Makes Underdog Predict Different
Three things. The integration: no separate platform if you’re already on Underdog. The combos: DFS-plus-Predict entries that exist nowhere else. And the owned infrastructure: Underdog now runs its own CFTC-regulated exchange, with the DCM, DCO, and FCM licenses all in-house instead of renting someone else’s.
Open the Predict tab and poke around →
Bottom Line
Underdog Predict runs the standard CFTC-regulated event contract playbook, the same one behind Kalshi and Polymarket, except it now runs that playbook on its own exchange. It wraps the mechanics in the most accessible package in the industry, and the business behind it did about $466 million in net revenue over the twelve months through June 2026, up 21% year over year, and turned profitable. The mechanics are learnable in one session: prices are probabilities, winners pay $1, you can exit any time, and holding to settlement is free on the way out.
If you’re already on Underdog and your state qualifies, your first prediction market trade is three taps away. Take the tour of Underdog Predict.
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of August 2026. Trading event contracts involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all participants. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.