By PredictQ Team // Updated: August 2026
Yes, Underdog Predict is legit. It’s a CFTC-regulated prediction market, and since July 2026 its event contracts trade on Underdog’s own CFTC-registered exchange and clear through its own clearinghouse. Add the registered FCM brokerage and Underdog holds all three major CFTC licenses, a vertically integrated stack that only Kalshi and Robinhood can match.
The longer answer is about what Underdog is as a company, how Predict fits into a business that’s actively reinventing itself, and a few operational realities worth knowing before you put money in.
The Regulatory Framework
Underdog Predict operates under federal CFTC oversight through a layered structure:
Underdog Predict is a registered FCM (Futures Commission Merchant), the license that lets it offer event contracts to retail customers.
Trades execute on Underdog’s own CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market, live since July 2026 and built on the Aristotle Exchange acquisition from March 9, 2026. Before that, trades ran on CDNA, the Crypto.com exchange that still powers OG.com.
Clearing and settlement run through Underdog’s own Derivatives Clearing Organization, so the company guarantees its own trades under CFTC segregation rules.
This puts Underdog Predict on the same federal footing as Kalshi and Polymarket. CFTC regulation is the strongest designation available for U.S. prediction markets, and federal courts have increasingly held that it preempts state gambling law for registered event contracts.
Leadership and Track Record
Jeremy Levine founded Underdog in 2020 and still runs it as CEO. He’s taken the company from startup to one of the largest private sports companies in the U.S. Rishi Garg joined as CFO in September 2025, and Kimberly Pointer Corbett as CMO the same month. Underdog ranked #3 on LinkedIn’s Top Startups list in October 2025, up from #15 the year before. And the talent keeps arriving: on August 11, 2026, Noah Zingler-Sternig, Kalshi’s former Head of Operations and the person who led its Robinhood integration, joined Underdog to build what he called the best exchange for sports fans, citing the full license stack, the product obsession, and user trust.
Levine has been publicly direct about the pivot from DFS to prediction markets, including after the Aristotle deal. When a CEO tells you exactly what the strategy is and then executes it in sequence, that’s a trust signal.
Capital and Backing
Underdog used to be private about its numbers. The IG Group acquisition changed that: on July 30, 2026, the LSE-listed trading firm agreed to buy Underdog for up to $1.3 billion, and the deal shows roughly $466 million in net revenue for the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, up 21% year over year, with about $46 million of EBITDA in Q2 alone. The company is profitable. The resources also show in what it has done: built and run a multi-state DFS business at scale, acquired Aristotle Exchange in March 2026 (terms undisclosed, presumably substantial), funded operations through a major restructuring, and signed sports partnerships including a multi-year deal with the St. Louis Blues (October 2025) and one with the Kansas City Royals (September 2025). Major venture firms backed the company through its DFS growth and into the prediction markets pivot.
The Transition, in Sequence
Underdog has compressed a lot of change into eight months. Know the timeline before you sign up:
Late 2025: Exited state-licensed sports betting. North Carolina sportsbook closed December 16, 2025; Missouri license withdrawn before that state’s December 1 launch.
September 2, 2025: Underdog Predict went live on CDNA.
February 2026: Roughly 125 employees laid off, more than 20% of the workforce, including fraud operations, customer support, graphics, marketing, and the draft-based games line.
March 9, 2026: Acquired Aristotle Exchange, the DCM and DCO behind PredictIt.
July 2026: Launched its own exchange on the Aristotle infrastructure, completing the move off CDNA and bringing all three CFTC licenses in-house.
July 30, 2026: Agreed to be acquired by IG Group for up to $1.3 billion, expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027 pending US regulatory approvals.
The logic is coherent. Federal CFTC regulation beats managing fifty state licensing regimes, and prediction markets give Underdog a bigger footprint with fewer regulatory variables. The February layoffs were painful, and we won’t pretend otherwise. But the bet has since paid off: the exchange shipped, the business turned profitable, and a publicly listed company agreed to pay up to $1.3 billion for the result. Execution risk looks a lot smaller in August than it did in February.
Custody and Fund Security
Customer funds sit in regulated banking channels under the CFTC’s requirements for FCMs, segregated from Underdog’s operating capital. Since July 2026, trades clear through Underdog’s own DCO, which carries its own segregation and risk management rules under the same federal framework.
Operational Track Record
Predict has run since September 2025, long enough to judge. The app and exchange integration have been stable with no significant reported outages. Deposits and withdrawals process reliably across debit card, PayPal, Venmo, and Trustly. Markets resolve according to published rules, with the exchange’s published settlement rules handling cancelled events and ties. Support responds through in-app help and email, typically within 24 hours.
Four Things Worth Knowing
First, the CDNA-to-Aristotle migration is finished. Since July 2026 you’ve been trading on Underdog’s own exchange, cleared by its own clearinghouse, not a rented stack. Only Kalshi and Robinhood run a comparable setup.
Second, Underdog now owns PredictIt through the Aristotle deal. PredictIt is a politics-focused market that runs separately from Underdog Predict. Same corporate umbrella, distinct products.
Third, the roadmap questions from the layoff era are resolving. The exchange shipped, senior hires keep landing, and IG’s capital arrives when the deal closes. In conversations with PredictQ, the team has told us directly they want to build for true prediction market principles.
Fourth, state availability is narrower than Kalshi or Polymarket: 31 states plus DC as of August 2026. Check eligibility before you get attached.
Customer Experience
The day-to-day product backs up the legitimacy case. The Predict integration is polished, KYC follows standard financial-institution practice, terms are published clearly, and responsible trading resources are built in. The combo entry feature linking DFS picks with Predict contracts exists nowhere else. And the interface is easier to pick up than a pure financial platform like Kalshi if you’re coming from DFS or sportsbooks.
Bottom Line
By every measure that matters, Underdog Predict is legitimate: CFTC-regulated through a registered FCM, run by a well-funded company with a leadership team that’s been building in sports gaming since 2020, and backed since July 2026 by its own exchange and clearinghouse, with IG Group’s balance sheet on the way. The pivot years carried real execution risk, and the missing Predict welcome bonus is still a real annoyance. Neither is a legitimacy problem.
If you’re in an eligible state and want a prediction market inside an app you already trust, this one holds up. For what we hope the new owners do with it, read our open letter to Underdog’s new owners.
Join Underdog and judge it for yourself →
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of August 2026. Underdog Predict is a registered FCM offering event contracts. Trades are placed on Underdog’s own CFTC-registered DCM and cleared through its own DCO. Trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all participants. This content is for informational purposes only. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.