By PredictQ Team // Updated: July 2026
FanDuel Predicts killed its best feature. Through early June 2026, its $25 welcome bonus required no deposit at all; you verified your identity and got trading credit. The current offer (running June 9 through July 20, 2026) requires a deposit and a real-money trade, and any unused bonus vanishes after seven days. The single biggest reason to recommend FanDuel Predicts to a curious beginner just got weaker.
The rest of the matchup: Polymarket is the prediction markets specialist, relaunched in the U.S. on December 2, 2025 through its acquired CFTC-licensed exchange (QCEX), with the deepest political order books in the business and a 0% fee tier on Geopolitics. FanDuel Predicts is a joint venture between FanDuel and CME Group, launched December 22, 2025, running as a registered futures commission merchant with contracts executing on CME’s exchange.
Same catch as DraftKings: FanDuel won’t offer sports contracts where FanDuel Sportsbook is licensed. Sports markets exist in exactly 18 states (Alabama, Alaska, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah). Non-sports markets do reach all 50 states plus DC. Polymarket has no product carve-outs but a smaller footprint overall, roughly 40 states, with New York excluded.
Quick Verdict
Polymarket. FanDuel Predicts carries no political markets, no geopolitics category, blocks sports in 32 states, and trades on mobile only. Polymarket beats it on markets, fees, and platform access wherever it’s live. FanDuel Predicts makes sense in two cases: your state blocks Polymarket, or you specifically want CME-listed commodities and index benchmarks with a familiar brand on the door.
Side-by-Side Snapshot
Regulation: Polymarket runs its acquired CFTC-regulated exchange on an intermediated basis. FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC is a registered FCM in a joint venture with CME Group; trades execute on CME’s exchange.
Bonus: Polymarket, deposit $10 and get a $20 trading bonus. FanDuel, $25 bonus requiring deposit plus a real-money trade; unused credit expires in 7 days.
States: Polymarket, roughly 40 states, full catalog. FanDuel, non-sports in all 50 plus DC, sports in 18 states only.
Markets: Polymarket covers politics, sports, geopolitics, crypto, culture. FanDuel covers sports, commodities, financials, economics, crypto. No politics.
Fees: Polymarket taker fees by category, 0% Geopolitics through $1.00 per 100 shares on Politics; makers pay nothing. FanDuel charges a flat 2% on payouts, winning settlements and early sell-offs alike, nothing on losses.
Platform: Polymarket runs on web and mobile. FanDuel Predicts is mobile-only.
How They Split
The fee models reward different behavior. FanDuel’s 2% on payouts sounds small until you do the math on a near-certain winner: buy at 90 cents, collect $1.00, and the $2 fee per $100 payout eats a fifth of your gross profit. Polymarket charges takers on the trade, capped at $1.00 per 100 shares even in Politics, and charges makers nothing ever. High-probability grinders and limit-order traders do far better on Polymarket. A FanDuel loss costs no fee, which is cold comfort.
On markets, there’s no contest in politics because FanDuel doesn’t show up. Its genuine edge is the CME shelf: gold, natural gas, S&P 500 levels, EUR/USD, economic prints. Polymarket covers economics but with less depth in those benchmark contracts. If your thing is trading Fed meetings and commodity levels inside a sportsbook-grade app, FanDuel is legitimately good at that one thing.
Mobile-only is a real limitation, not a footnote. There is no desktop or web version of FanDuel Predicts. Managing multiple positions, comparing prices across platforms, or working an exit on a phone screen is strictly worse. Polymarket’s web app is a full trading interface.
Regulatory footing is solid on both sides, differently shaped. CME is one of the largest derivatives exchanges on the planet, and FanDuel’s FCM structure puts customer funds under CFTC rules. Polymarket owns its exchange and clearinghouse via the QCEX deal and cleared a CFTC amended order in November 2025. The states, not the CFTC, are where Polymarket’s map has holes.
Pick Polymarket If
You want political markets at real depth. FanDuel has none.
You want geopolitics at 0% fees.
You trade often enough that 2% of every payout is real money.
You want desktop trading and limit orders.
You’re in one of Polymarket’s roughly 40 live states and want the $20 trading bonus for a $10 deposit.
Polymarket welcome offer: deposit $10, get a $20 trading bonus →
Pick FanDuel Predicts If
Your state blocks Polymarket (New York, notably) and allows FanDuel’s markets.
You want CME-listed commodities and financial benchmarks in one clean app.
You’re in one of the 18 sports-eligible states and want a sportsbook-familiar interface.
You’re a FanDuel loyalist and the $25 starter bonus covers your first trades.
Using Both
Reasonable, and cheap to do. The two bonuses together are $45 of credit against modest deposits. Polymarket takes politics, geopolitics, and your serious sports positions; FanDuel takes commodities and benchmark trades. In FanDuel Sportsbook states the case thins out, since Predicts is non-sports only there. Create a Polymarket account.
Bottom Line
FanDuel brought the biggest brand in sports betting to prediction markets and then fenced off most of what makes prediction markets interesting. Polymarket just gives you the markets. Trade where the markets are.
Disclosures: PredictQ may receive compensation when readers sign up for platforms through links on this page. Information accurate as of July 2026. Polymarket operates in the U.S. through its acquired CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse (QCEX) on an intermediated basis; availability varies by state. FanDuel Predicts is operated by FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant in joint venture with CME Group, with trades executing on CME Group’s CFTC-regulated exchange. Bonus terms current for the June 9 to July 20, 2026 promo period; verify the live offer before depositing. Trading event contracts involves significant risk. This content is for informational purposes only. Must be 18 or older. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.