The First Prediction-Market Election, Week Three: Georgia Changes Favorites

Last week the board gave back a few cents to the Republican side. This week it took them back. Kalshi's Senate control contract closed at 62 cents last Tuesday and was 65 cents Tuesday night. The Democratic sweep contract gained five cents, and Maine's Troy Jackson had the biggest gain among the Senate races at six. The largest moves on our board came in two governor races, with Gina Hinojosa's Texas contract up nine cents and Amy Acton's in Ohio up eight. Aaron Ford in Nevada and Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia each picked up five cents. Bottoms closed at 46 cents last Tuesday and is at 51 now, which makes Georgia the first contract on our board to change favorites since the series started.

The week's loudest story broke in Ohio. A video in which Acton's estranged mother calls her a liar began circulating on social media late Monday, and on Tuesday morning Acton's campaign answered with a statement from her brother condemning it. Ramaswamy told reporters Tuesday evening that the ad is his, and NBC News reported that his campaign plans a $4 million ad push around it. Marist released an Ohio poll Tuesday, fielded Oct. 15 to 18, with Acton up 50-43 among likely voters. Kalshi's Acton contract was 72 cents at 9 a.m. Tuesday and 77 by 5 p.m., before Ramaswamy's acknowledgment.

This is part three of a five-part series that runs through Election Day. The board is the same one we set up in part one, with the Oct. 13 close alongside today's price so the change covers a full week. The settlement guide comes Oct. 27, the election-morning edition Nov. 3, and the Scoreboard a week after that. If there's a race you want on the board, tell us at @PredictQmkt. Between editions, every market here is live on PredictQ.

Every price is from Kalshi, with each contract's Oct. 13 daily close for the week's change. Prices may change.

The Big Board

Democrats are 65 cents to win the Senate and 91 cents to win the House. Polymarket has the same two questions at 64.5 and 91.5 cents.

The national number barely moved. Nate Silver's generic ballot average is Democrats +8.9 as of Oct. 20, against +8.8 a week earlier and a cycle high of +9.1, and his page says the Democratic surge that began in early September has leveled off.

The movers, and what was happening around them

For each move of three cents or more, here's what was happening around it. Where we can't tie a move to anything, we say so.

Texas governor, Hinojosa 20 to 29 (+9). Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative since 2017, is challenging Gov. Greg Abbott's bid for a fourth term. Last week's biggest faller is this week's biggest riser, even though all three Texas polls in the window have the race within three points. ReconMR had Abbott up 48-47 on Oct. 13, the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project had Hinojosa up 49-48 on Oct. 14, and the University of Houston's Hobby School had Abbott up 49-46 on Oct. 19. Axios reported Oct. 18 that the Democratic Governors Association (DGA)'s $1 million had arrived and that JB Pritzker's own total contribution is now $1.2 million. The biggest jump came Tuesday afternoon, from 27 at 3 p.m. to 33 at 5 p.m., before the price settled at 29. We couldn't tie it to a specific event.

Ohio governor, Acton 69 to 77 (+8), and Ohio Senate, Brown 60 to 65 (+5). Acton ran the Ohio Department of Health from 2019 into the first months of the pandemic and faces Vivek Ramaswamy. Sherrod Brown, who lost his Senate seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024, is running against Jon Husted, appointed to JD Vance's seat in January 2025. Brown was last week's example of the market and the polls disagreeing, and this week his price moved toward the polls. On Oct. 16 Bowling Green State University released a poll with Brown up 48-42 and Acton up 50-44 among likely voters, and Brown's contract went from 60 to 65 that day. Tuesday's Marist poll had Brown up 48-44, and his price held while Acton's jumped. Marist also found 49% of Ohio voters expect Ramaswamy to win and 45% expect Acton, who is 77 cents on Kalshi.

Maine Senate, Jackson 57 to 63 (+6). Troy Jackson became the Democratic nominee at a special convention in July and faces Sen. Susan Collins. Their Oct. 13 and Oct. 15 debates didn't move the contract, which closed at 57 both nights. Suffolk had Jackson up 49-47 (Oct. 8 to 11), and his campaign reported raising $20.4 million in the third quarter to Collins's $5.2 million. The jump came Oct. 19, from 59 to 62, and we didn't find a poll or spending story that day to pin it to.

Democrats sweep both chambers, 60 to 65 (+5). A sweep needs both chambers, so this contract moves with the Senate states above. Democratic House, Republican Senate fell three cents, to 27.

Nevada governor, Ford 52 to 57 (+5). Aaron Ford, Nevada's attorney general since 2019, is challenging Gov. Joe Lombardo. The contract climbed a cent or two at a time from Oct. 15, and we found no new public poll in the window. Axios reported that the DGA has been putting its money into a handful of governor races, Nevada among them.

Georgia governor, Bottoms 46 to 51 (+5). Bottoms, Atlanta's mayor from 2018 to 2022, faces healthcare CEO Rick Jackson for the open seat. Both polls in the window had Jackson ahead by a point or two, InsiderAdvantage at 49-47 and the AJC/University of Georgia poll at 46-45. Georgia set a first-day early voting record on Oct. 13, with 188,667 in-person ballots against 134,962 on the first day in 2022. The contract crossed 50 on Tuesday.

Kansas Senate, Hamilton 37 to 40 (+3). Adam Hamilton, the pastor who founded the Church of the Resurrection, faces Sen. Roger Marshall. Last week's test was whether the contract would stay in the high 30s with tied polls or climb toward 50. It's at 40, and the three averages KSN rounded up Tuesday are all within two points either way. Marshall is 61. The two debate Wednesday night.

Texas Senate, Talarico 65 to 64 (-1). Last week we said the Wall Street Journal's report on Ken Paxton's New Year's Eve in Dubai would show up here if it moved the race. It didn't help James Talarico, a Democratic state representative. His contract slid to 61 by Oct. 16, three days after he went after Paxton over the trip. Both polls in the window had Talarico ahead, 50-47 in the UT/Texas Politics Project poll and 48-46 in the Hobby School's, and the contract was back to 64 Tuesday night.

What the debates did

Last week we asked whether the Iowa, Maine and Alaska Senate debates would move their markets the way Michigan’s first debate did. None did right away. Josh Turek’s contract to win Iowa was 41 cents the night of his Oct. 13 debate with Ashley Hinson and 42 cents the next night. Troy Jackson’s contract in Maine closed at 57 cents after both of his debates with Susan Collins. In Alaska, Mary Peltola’s contract was 74 cents the night of her Oct. 15 debate with Dan Sullivan and 75 cents the next day. At that debate, Sullivan raised a New York Times report about Peltola’s treatment of former staff, and Peltola called much of it fabricated or exaggerated.

Where Trump went

A reader asked us to track appearances alongside the prices, and so far it's a short list. Trump rallied for Sullivan in Wasilla on Oct. 13, for Rick Jackson and Collins in Dalton on Oct. 16 and for Marshall in Park City on Oct. 19. In all three states the Democratic contract is higher now than it was the night of the rally, with Peltola going from 74 to 76, Bottoms from 47 to 51 and Hamilton from 38 to 40.

Kalshi and Polymarket

Last week Polymarket sat two to two and a half cents above Kalshi on the contracts that fell. That gap is gone. The two venues are now within a cent and a half of each other on every Senate market on the board, and Kalshi is the higher of the two in Ohio (65 to 64), Iowa (43 to 42), Alaska (76 to 74.5) and Kansas (40 to 38.5). The widest gaps are in two governor races, where Kalshi has Florida's David Jolly at 22 to Polymarket's 19.5 and Hinojosa at 29 to 27.

The rest of the board

Michigan held at 68. Iowa gained two cents after a Marist poll released Oct. 15 (fielded Oct. 8 to 11) had Turek up 48-45 among likely voters. Off our board, the Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats and Minnesota toward Republicans.

Governors: Nevada's Ford 57 (+5), Georgia's Bottoms 51 (+5), Ohio's Acton 77 (+8), Texas's Hinojosa 29 (+9), Florida's Jolly 22 (+1), Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro 97 (-1).

What we're watching this week

• Kansas. Marshall and Hamilton debate Wednesday night, with the contract at 40 and the averages tied.

• Ohio after Tuesday. Acton's contract gained six cents on the day Marist's poll came out and the video of her mother drew national coverage. We'll see where it sits a week later.

• Texas early vote. Early voting runs through Oct. 30, and Trump holds rallies in Lubbock and Waco on Oct. 27. The governor contract's afternoon jump Tuesday is still unexplained.

• Maine. The Oct. 19 move came with no news we could find. If a poll lands this week, we'll check it against the price.

• The governor gaps. Kalshi is above Polymarket by two cents or more on Texas and Florida governor. We'll report whether that holds.

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