The Football Gold model is designed to create an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model accounting for factors like weather, rest, location and scheduling (25%), and a composite of the best publicly available power ratings (50%) to produce a projected spread, which we then convert into a moneyline price and compare directly against prediction markets. The approach has produced a 66-52-3 record (56%, +8.5 units) in 2025 and an 16-8 start (66.7%, +9 units) in 2026, while the broader modeling process has helped produce five Circa Millions cashes in the past five years, including two Top-100 finishes in 2025. The goal is simple: establish what we believe the true price should be, then identify where prediction markets are offering something meaningfully different.
I want to find games where our estimated probability differs meaningfully from the market. An upset isn't the point. A price worth examining is.
This week, three teams stand out. The Chargers, Packers and Rams.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Football Gold Composite: Chargers 47%
Quoted market probability: 38.6% at ProphetX
Model gap: 47% − 38.6% = 8.4 percentage points
This is the largest discrepancy I'm seeing this week. And it's gross.
The Chargers are 0-4, and the market has adjusted them down significantly. Our model sees something much closer to a coin flip against Denver.
There's plenty of reason to be skeptical. Los Angeles has been flat-out awful, and each week brings another calamity. Rashawn Slater suffered a high-ankle sprain against Seattle, while Joe Alt left with a neck injury. Ladd McConkey is dealing with a foot injury. The Chargers have also leaned on a three-man backfield as they search for answers.
Denver has problems of its own. Pat Surtain II and receiver Pat Bryant are expected to miss time after the Week 4 loss to San Francisco. Riley Moss also left that game with a rib injury and he might miss this game, as well.
The Broncos' offense looks pedestrian, too. Bo Nix is averaging 2.4 completed air yards per pass attempt. Denver hasn't produced much offensively, particularly in its two road games.
There were at least signs of life from Justin Herbert and the Chargers late against Seattle. If Los Angeles can protect him well enough to exploit a depleted Denver secondary, this game looks closer than the quoted price suggests.
Despite the lack of a true home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, the Chargers might get off the schneid this week.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Football Gold Composite: Packers 50%
Quoted market probability: 42.5% at ProphetX
Model gap: 50% − 42.5% = 7.5 percentage points
The market has Chicago as the favorite in Green Bay. My model makes this a true coin flip.
The biggest variable is quarterback. Tyson Bagent is likely to start again for Chicago after playing well against the Jets. I see him as more turnover-prone than Caleb Williams, but with more explosive-play potential than Case Keenum.
Chicago has continued to move the football without Williams. The Bears lead the NFL with 4.8 red-zone trips per game but rank 30th in touchdown conversion at 42%. There's room for the offense to improve, and Chicago's defense has been lights-out over the past three weeks.
Still, those three games were at home against the Vikings, Eagles and Jets. Taking on the Packers at Lambeau is a different assignment. This is also the defense that gave up 37 points to Carolina on the road in Week 1.
Christian Watson and Matthew Golden should give Green Bay chances to challenge Chicago's secondary. Jordan Love is the best quarterback the Bears have seen this season, with apologies to Bryce Young.
I see a pricing gap on the home divisional underdog.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
Football Gold Composite: Rams 68%
Quoted market probability: 60.5% at ProphetX
Model gap: 68% − 60.5% = 7.5 percentage points
There's a major situational component here. Buffalo travels across the country for a Monday night game in Los Angeles. My model gives weight to that East Coast-to-West Coast primetime setup.
The matchup gives me reasons to like Los Angeles, too. Dion Dawkins has had a couple of rough games, and I think that's affecting Josh Allen's efficiency. Buffalo's offense remains very good, but protection could matter against this defensive front.
Aaron Donald could strengthen that front if he returns. In the Rams' October 5 injury update, Sean McVay said he's hopeful Donald will play against Buffalo. That's encouraging, though far from a concrete answer on his status.
There should be a fascinating battle on the ground. Buffalo and Los Angeles rank first and second in yards before contact per rush. I expect the Rams to lean heavily on their rushing attack.
The concern is special teams. That's been a weakness for Los Angeles, and it can swing a close game. Still, the matchup and scheduling situation leave our numbers more bullish on the Rams than the market price.
So which of these three sides would you like to back this week: the helpless Chargers, the lifeless Packers or the overrated Super Bowl favorites?
This article includes links to PredictQ partner ProphetX. We may earn a commission if you use them. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice. Prices, odds and entry counts can change, and fees can affect the price you actually pay.