Week of October 5, 2026
"Dancing with the Stars, Rotten Tomatoes scores, and our weekly check-in on the Oscars.
Every Monday, we run hundreds of topics across thousands of active Kalshi Entertainment markets to ask one thing: where is the volume right now? This tells us what people are excited about, talking about and, most importantly, where they are putting their money. That helps us identify where attention is being concentrated so you can spot the story before it’s everywhere.
Two numbers do the heavy lifting here: timeliness (how close a market is to resolving) and volume (how much trading activity it’s pulling). Cross them and we can put these markets into three buckets:
· Hot and Loud (top-right) - loads of volume and close to a resolution date
· Big and Banking (top-left) - the crowd is already here, the resolution date is not
· On the Radar (bottom-right) – the clock is loud but the money hasn’t shown up yet
Prices are point in time as of this writing and move quickly. Here’s what topped the board this week.
Hot and Loud
Ezra Frech: Favorite in the market, not a weekly scoring sweep
Ezra Frech to win DWTS is the loudest market on the board with 3.1M contracts traded and 174K in the last 24 hours alone. The market has been chasing Ezra Frech since he and Daniella Karagach’s performance of Cha Cha on Viral Hits Night.
That alone vaulted him from fourth (15%) to first (26%) on Kalshi just a couple of weeks ago. Now, after the stunning elimination of Taylor Hanson, the two-time Paralympian is sitting as a robust 45% favorite.
The story writes itself and the market does love a good narrative: he’s the third ever amputee to compete on the show, and the last one since Amy Purdy took home second place. One thing to flag though is that although he’s priced as the current favorite on Kalshi, that doesn’t necessarily indicate he’s the current frontrunner in the judges scorecard as well. This past week, judges scored his performance 21/30, which tied with two other groups and trailed three more. Keep in mind that the market pricing is a mixture of judge scoring and the fan-vote strength driving his season-long momentum, not that he’s been outscoring the field every week.
Is 45% fair, or is the story outrunning the scorecard?
More DWTS: Jackson Olson is getting small scores but has a big fanbase
Will Jackson Olson get eliminated is a timely, fast moving market. Monday morning, he was trading above 60% as the current favorite to go home Tuesday night but his price isn’t exactly settled: sliding to around 50% the same day. He sits near the bottom with the judges (his best week was the last, scoring 18/30) and is currently ranked 11th out of 12. Fortunately for him however, DWTS isn’t just decided on judge scores. The fan vote matters. For Olson specifically, it may matter a ton. The 28-year-old second baseman has his Savannah Bananas fanbase and the Wheel of Fortune crowd rallying on his side, thanks to his relationship with Maggie Sajak. Smells like a classic “low score, high floor” profile, and the market repriced it from “likely gone” to a coin flip. We’ll know Tuesday night whether he goes home or not, and I expect the price to move quite a bit either way until then.
I Play Rocky: Trying to standalone aside from nostalgia on Rotten Tomatoes
I Play Rocky is next up on the list, as its Rotten Tomatoes score prediction is gaining a bunch of traction in the market as early reviews trickle out ahead of the film’s November release.
The Anthony Ippolito-starring movie has been a fun one to track, with his performance being universally praised as reviews flow in.
After a TIFF premiere that drew an enthusiastic crowd and a standing ovation, the early reviews were surprisingly soft (opening at just over 60%), given the initial buzz from the live crowd. Critical reception has crept up with praise for Ippolito's lead and some skepticism about whether the movie is providing anything outside of nostalgia. Since those early ones landed however, the film has been on a steady rise over the last few weeks. Many of the recent reviews are commending the film, bringing it up to its current, unsettled score of 84%.
Let us know in Discord if you’re trading this one and if you think it will continue its rise.
The spicy one: KATSEYE
Smallest book we're featuring (53K) but a fun one given how even the crowd is split: When Will Manon leave KATSEYE? A price near the middle like this one can reflect disagreement, uncertainty, thin liquidity, or a mix of all three. Tiny market + maximum disagreement = a flyer if you've got a read the market doesn't. The public record and the rumor mill need separate lanes here, though. HollywoodLife reports that Manon took a temporary hiatus and that no permanent departure had been officially announced in its coverage. It also relays an unnamed-source report that she wasn't planning to return: those aren't the same level of confirmation.
IBTimes describes solo-brand activity and podcast chatter fueling further exit speculation. However, nothing is reported on an official departure.
My read is that the signals deserve attention, not that they establish she's gone. This contract is about a defined departure event within its stated timeframe, not whether or not she is currently still with the group. A possible exit and an announcement before the cutoff are different questions. What evidence would move you from rumor-watching to a firmer view?
Big and Banking
Big, durable headlines that don’t have a close resolve date but the audience and the volume are already there.
Per routine, let's continue to keep tabs on how The Oscar’s Best Picture market is holding up as it is our quiet giant (7.9m contracts and 459 days until resolution). Last time, we had a surprise surge of The Black Ball blast onto the board, and the momentum hasn’t died. That persistence is worth watching. For now, the question is whether new reviews, new releases and awards-seasons signals will give traders a reason to keep the price strong.
Best Actor: Malkovich continues to rise
As we coined last week, the 73-year-old lead in Wild Horse Nine won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor and his price in the Oscars: Best Actor market has been on the rise ever since. He's up 7% in the past week, holding a 39%-win probability according to the market. Matt Damon (The Odyssey) and Tom Cruise (Digger) are trailing behind at 25% and 15% respectively.
Only twice in film-award history has an actor won both the Volpi and the Oscars for the same movie. Does John Malkovich make it three or is this a market overreacting?
On the Radar
The bottom-right of the graph stayed thin again this week with a handful of timely-but-thin markets that haven't pulled the volume to make a note of as of yet.
Next Week's Watch
Dancing with the Stars Elimination happens Tuesday night. The last elimination we had shook the market violently.
Ezra Frech, as mentioned above, took the bulk of the benefit when Taylor Hanson got eliminated last week. How will his price fare if he survives another day?
I Play Rocky locks in about a week: last call for the RT number to swing.
Which quadrant are you trading this week? Let us know in the Discord.
This article includes links to PredictQ's partner Kalshi. We may earn a commission if you use them. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Prices, trading volume, and entry counts can change.