The Football Gold model creates an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model covering weather, rest, location and scheduling (25%), and a composite of publicly available power ratings (50%). We turn the projected spread into a win probability, then compare it with the quoted market.
The approach produced a 66-52-3 record in 2025, a 56% win rate excluding pushes and a gain of 8.5 units. In 2026, it's started 20-11, a 64.5% win rate and a gain of 10.5 units. The broader modeling process has also helped produce five Circa Millions cashes in the past five years, including two Top-100 finishes in 2025. Those are our reported results, not a promise about what comes next.
PredictQ record: 4-2, up 2.06 units.
We're looking for games where our model sees a team's chances differently than the market. Picking the winner is only part of it. The price matters.
This week, five teams are worth a closer look. The 49ers, Raiders, Broncos, Titans and Texans.
Overtime games, short weeks and hidden rest advantages drive several of the gaps. Those are exactly the situations our model is designed to weigh.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
Football Gold Composite: 49ers 88%
Quoted market probability: 78.4% at ProphetX
Model gap: 88% − 78.4% = 9.6 percentage points
This is the largest gap among the five games, with a significant situational component driving it.
Washington is coming off an overtime game against the Giants and now travels across the country for Monday Night Football in San Francisco. My model weighs the body-clock disadvantage for East Coast teams playing primetime games on the West Coast. Add Washington's extra workload, and it's a favorable scheduling spot for the 49ers.
The matchup isn't all one-way traffic, though.
Washington's defense has been productive against the run, while San Francisco's rushing attack hasn't consistently carried the offense. That could put more of the workload on Brock Purdy.
The bigger concern is San Francisco's health. Deebo Samuel is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury, leaving the receiving corps thinner. Nick Bosa, Kyle Juszczyk and Jalen Thompson are also names to monitor on the injury report. Dre Greenlaw's one-game suspension is another consideration.
I still think Jayden Daniels is an excellent quarterback when healthy. His rushing ability gives Washington a way to outperform the raw numbers.
Even with that risk, the schedule, location and cumulative workload are why our model lands so far above the quoted price on San Francisco.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Football Gold Composite: Raiders 41%
Quoted market probability: 32.7% at ProphetX
Model gap: 41% − 32.7% = 8.3 percentage points
I don't particularly want to oppose Josh Allen right now. The schedule is making a compelling argument for taking a closer look at Las Vegas anyway.
Buffalo is coming off a 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night, followed by a short week before another road game in Las Vegas. That's a difficult turnaround even before accounting for the extra snaps.
The Bills are staying in California rather than flying home, which avoids another cross-country round trip, as the team explains in its October 13 update. It doesn't erase the recovery disadvantage. Our situational model gives those scheduling spots considerable weight.
The problem is that the Raiders haven't given us a ton of reasons to trust them. Their defense struggled against New England, particularly in the secondary. That's an uncomfortable weakness with Allen coming to town.
The rushing attack hasn't offered much support, either. I was surprised by how little Mike Washington was involved last week, and I'd like to see Klint Kubiak find more touches for him.
Ashton Jeanty's ankle and foot issues are worth monitoring. His availability could change what this offense can do.
Buffalo's defense has issues of its own. Greg Rousseau has been a bright spot, but the unit has left opponents opportunities to stay in games.
Allen and Joe Brady are operating at a high level offensively. Their aggressive play-calling is part of why Buffalo is such a substantial favorite.
The question is whether Las Vegas has more than a 32.7% chance of winning. Our model says 41%. The Raiders don't need to be the stronger team for that gap to matter.
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Football Gold Composite: Broncos 50%
Quoted market probability: 44.0% at ProphetX
Model gap: 50% − 44.0% = 6.0 percentage points
I'm not entirely sure what to make of Seattle right now.
The offense has been inconsistent through five weeks. It hasn't put together the complete performance against a quality opponent that I'd like to see, and Sam Darnold hasn't looked like the quarterback we saw last season.
The offensive line has struggled, and the rushing attack hasn't reliably taken pressure off the passing game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's ankle is another concern. I expect him to play, but his effectiveness matters as much as his availability.
Denver has problems, too. The Broncos' offense didn't take a meaningful step forward against the Chargers, and Sean Payton hasn't consistently generated production from this group.
Seattle's pass rush presents a difficult matchup for Bo Nix, especially when Denver falls behind the chains. I'd like to see the Broncos establish the running game against Seattle's lighter fronts. Manageable down-and-distance situations would make Nix's job considerably easier.
The schedule may be Denver's biggest advantage. Seattle played in a very tough divisional game against San Francisco on Sunday, then travels to Denver for Thursday Night Football. Add the altitude, and it's a demanding assignment.
Our Composite makes this game a coin flip. I understand why Seattle is favored. Its defense is a real concern for this Broncos offense.
I just don't think the gap between these teams is as large as the market price, especially under these circumstances. At that price, I'm interested in the home underdog.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Football Gold Composite: Titans 29%
Quoted market probability: 26.0% at BetRivers
Model gap: 29% − 26.0% = 3.0 percentage points
I'm not going to pretend the Tennessee Titans are a good football team. They're not.
The offense has been ugly, and there's little reason to expect a sudden transformation. The matchup and situation may matter more here than the overall quality of the teams.
Tennessee is coming off another poor offensive performance, so the market's reluctance to give the Titans much credit makes sense.
I think some of the criticism of the offensive line has been misplaced. The unit isn't particularly good, but the dysfunction also falls on Cam Ward and Brian Daboll. When the quarterback and playcaller aren't operating efficiently, the line is an easy scapegoat.
Indianapolis presents a more manageable defensive matchup. The Colts' defense has been a liability, and Daniel Jones hasn't looked as convincing as he did during his 2025 resurgence.
Even Jonathan Taylor hasn't consistently generated the explosive plays this offense needs. Tennessee has been solid against the run, which gives the Titans a way to keep the game competitive.
Our situational model also sees a favorable bounce-back spot for Tennessee. That doesn't mean I expect an efficient offense to appear out of nowhere. I think the Titans' chance of winning is being discounted a little too aggressively.
In a divisional game against a vulnerable defense, there's enough to warrant a closer look.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Football Gold Composite: Texans 47%
Quoted market probability: 44.0% at ProphetX
Model gap: 47% − 44.0% = 3.0 percentage points
This is one of the more interesting scheduling situations of the season. Jacksonville is already in London. Houston has to cross the Atlantic to face a divisional opponent that's had longer to adjust to the time difference.
That's a logistical advantage for the Jaguars, and a major reason our model doesn't make Houston the favorite despite some matchup advantages.
There's another way to look at the venue, though. Jacksonville is giving up a game in its usual home stadium. The nfelo home-field tracker measures team-level home advantage and it shows that Jacksonville has the largest home field advantage in the NFL over the past five seasons. Losing that familiar home setting is worth weighing alongside the acclimatization benefit, rather than treating either factor as decisive.
Houston is coming off a convincing win over Tennessee, although I wouldn't get carried away with the offensive performance. C.J. Stroud continues to play good football, but the line remains a concern. Braden Smith's availability could be a meaningful factor.
The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. reunites him with Stroud, his college teammate at Ohio State. I wouldn't expect him to transform the offense immediately. Even if he plays this week, a limited role would be reasonable while he learns the system.
The biggest reason I think Houston can win is its defensive front.
Jacksonville's offensive line struggled at times against Philadelphia. Anton Harrison's knee injury adds another concern for that group.
Now it has to handle Houston's pass rush. Good luck.
I expect Liam Coen to lean on quick throws to protect Trevor Lawrence and limit the impact of that front.
Jacksonville has defensive strengths of its own, particularly at linebacker and against the short game. That's a difficult matchup for a Houston offense that hasn't consistently run the football.
There's a clear trade-off. Jacksonville has the travel advantage and a defense capable of making Houston one-dimensional. The Texans have the defensive front to disrupt Jacksonville's game plan.
I still think Houston has a better chance of overcoming Jacksonville's logistical advantage than that price gives it credit for.
The common theme this week is scheduling.
San Francisco gets Washington after an overtime game and a cross-country trip. Las Vegas faces Buffalo on a short week after Monday night's overtime contest. Denver hosts Seattle on Thursday after its divisional game against the 49ers.
Those are precisely the situations our model is designed to capture.
Tennessee and Houston offer smaller gaps, with matchup considerations doing more of the work. Before acting on any of them, compare the available price and fees with the model's estimate. You can find PredictQ's partner links on our platform sign-up page; an old quote isn't a reason to accept a worse one.
So which of these five teams would you be most comfortable backing this week: the heavily favored 49ers, the Raiders against Josh Allen, the Broncos on Thursday night, or one of the two AFC South underdogs?
This article includes links to PredictQ partners like ProphetX. We may earn a commission if you use them. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice. Prices, odds and entry counts can change, and fees can affect the price you actually pay.