Research & Analysis
The edge, written down
Expert breakdowns, strategy notes, and the sharpest signals from the prediction market ecosystem.
Week 9 Market Movers: Burrow Passes Allen, Harbaugh Pulls Away, and a Rookie Race Nobody Wants to Win
MVP has a new leader, ROY is a mess and Harbaugh dominating COY....
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min read
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 9
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
Cole Wyman· · 6 min
Five Week 9 NFL Prediction Markets Where Our Model Sees a Different Price
Editor’s note: Jason Gold is an independent contractor who is solely responsible for the Football Gold model. The picks and model are operated indepen...
Football Gold· · 11 min
Six Week 8 NFL Prediction Markets Where Our Model Sees a Different Price
The Football Gold model creates an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model covering weather...
Football Gold· · 9 min
The NFL Made Saquon Barkley Sell His Polymarket Stake
Saquon Barkley told Front Office Sports the NFL made him sell his Polymarket stake. Here's what the rule covers and how the other leagues compare....
PredictQ Team· · 5 min
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 8
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
Cole Wyman· · 8 min
Week 7 Market Movers: Harbaugh's Takeover, Burrow Takes Purdy’s Lunch Money, and the Niners' Red Week
Harbaugh leads for COY, JSN passes Gibbs and Tate retains OROY....
Trevor Glisson· · 9 min
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 7
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
Cole Wyman· · 11 min
Four Week 7 NFL Prediction Markets Where Our Model Sees a Different Price
The Football Gold model creates an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model covering weather...
Football Gold· · 6 min
Week 6 Market Movers: Two Favorites Got Overthrown
A new ROY and OPOY favorite while MVP stays a two man race...
Trevor Glisson· · 9 min
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 6
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
Cole Wyman· · 8 min
Five Week 6 NFL Prediction Markets Where Our Model Sees a Different Price
We're looking for games where our model sees a team's chances differently than the market. Picking the winner is only part of it. The price matters. T...
Football Gold· · 9 min
Week 5 Market Movers: The Money Picked Sides
A defensive market is being dominated, an MVP race that's consolidated to a two-horse race, and a new favorite for Coach of the Year....
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
Kalshi and Polymarket Fantasy Finish Markets: Week 5
Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the re...
Cole Wyman· · 9 min
Week 4 Market Movers: A Rookie Erupts, Two Exchanges Disagree on COY, and the Award Races Tighten.
A rookie almost nobody was pricing went supernova, the DPOY board bailed on a star, the Niners finally got the respect on Polymarket that Kalshi had b...
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
Week 3 Market Movers: Gibbs Pulls Away, and a Rookie Takes Over
It’s a wrap for Week 3. A week I am dubbing “the week of true colors” as we can no longer use arguments of rust to make excuses for player or team per...
Trevor Glisson· · 6 min
Analyzing Kalshi and Polymarket Weekly Fantasy Football Markets
If you have ever built a DFS lineup, you have already done the hard part of this trade. Whether you built Monte Carlo sims or cooked up a lineup on yo...
John Breslin· · 13 min
Week 2 Market Movers: 2 Carts and a Josh Allen
Week 2 did not ease anyone in. It took out two young Quarterbacks, gave us multiple shocking upsets that clogged up a coaching market, and Josh Allen ...
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min