Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the results of the TNF game. If reading Friday or later, be sure to view the updated charts in the bottom half of this article.

Week 3 recap + what the model sees for Week 4

Last week, we introduced our model for the weekly fantasy finish markets on Kalshi (top five and top one) and Polymarket US (top one). If you missed that article, you can find it linked here. Our NFL model runs 50,000 simulated weeks and counts how often each player leads his position or finishes in the top five.

The charts below use PPR fantasy points. Before applying a projection to a contract, check that contract's scoring and settlement rules. If you're exploring these platforms, PredictQ's partner…