If you have ever built a DFS lineup, you have already done the hard part of this trade. Whether you built Monte Carlo sims or cooked up a lineup on your throne, you analyzed a slate, decided who had the likeliest ceiling outcome, and paid a price for it. Now, instead of using DraftKings salary, you can bet on the outcome with your own money. Kalshi and Polymarket US offer markets on which quarterback, running back, wide receiver, or tight end finishes the NFL week with the most (or top 5) PPR points.
The difficult part to analyze is not the yes-or-no question, but the complicated, and often empty, order book. Until meaningful volume enters the market, prices will be incredibly inefficient. Wide bid-ask spreads leave makers guessing what a buyer will be willing to pay, and willing buyers are often left without a reasonable price to trade at.…