One week in and the board already took its first real punch. Anthony Edwards is headed for knee surgery and up to two months on the shelf, Luka dropped 41 in a loss and the market rewarded him for it, and Tatum hung 40 with a buzzer beater to beat the Nets in overtime. Meanwhile, the Rookie of the Year race is a five-way traffic jam, and its preseason headliner still hasn’t played a minute.
Since this is our first snapshot of the season, there’s no Week 0 to compare against. So this week is about where every race sits and what could change going forward.
A quick note on the numbers: all prices below are Kalshi unless stated otherwise. All prices recorded are at the time of writing and are subject to change. Stats and standings are through games of October 27. Many of these award markets are thin at this point of the season, so can move quickly.
MVP — Luka Steps on the Gas, Ant Steps Off the Board
Time to pour one out for the Ant-Man. Anthony Edwards will undergo an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee and will miss up to two months of the season, per Shams on X. The Athletic’s subsequent reporting puts the expected absence at at least two months, with a firmer recovery timeline still pending the procedure. This announcement came just one day after he dropped 47 in Cleveland. He sat at 14¢ prior to the news and has, naturally, fallen off the board. Minnesota will be without their superstar for the first part of the regular season. With the 65-game rule, this may be the last time he appears on our radar for awards if he does miss the whole 2 months.
Luka Doncic demanded respect after I spotted him at 18¢ and proceeded to go for 41/9/5 in the home loss against the Blazers late last night. The performance wasn’t enough to keep the Lakers undefeated, but it was enough for him to inch closer to Wemby territory in the MVP race, he has moved up to 23¢ at time of writing.
Speaking of Wemby (29¢) he continues to hold the favorite lead, one he's carried since the market opened. He got off to a bit of a slow start in the first week of the season but answered with 29 points, 10 boards and 5 blocks in the 130-103 dog walking of the Kings. Wemby leads the league in my personal, under-the-breath-comments of “He’s so good” every time I watch him play.
Jayson Tatum (11¢) and the Celtics escaped overtime with a win against the Nets carried by a Tatum game-winner, and a cool 40, 5, and 8 from the six-time All Star. I wonder if Mikel Brown Jr will be receiving thank-you notes from Tatum and the C’s after he missed a head-scratching layup with the lead and no shot clock. Regardless, Tatum has seemed to replace Ant as #4 in the race.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sitting at third in the race (20¢) while the Thunder sit at 4-0. He’s averaging 27 points per night and the Thunder are undefeated. Jalen Williams suffered a gruesome leg injury, so it will be interesting to see how SGA’s number moves if the Thunder need to lean on him more.
I don't have many qualms with anyone at the top here, who do you think will separate?
DPO(Wemb)Y
Victor Wembanyama sits at 73¢, and five more blocks against Sacramento won’t move that needle. The Frenchman currently leads both the MVP and DPOY markets. Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the only guys to ever win both awards in a single season. Quite the company to keep if Wemby can hold his ground throughout the season.
Behind him, the race for second:
Walker Kessler (9¢) is posting 3.0 blocks a night in his first month as a Laker
Ausar Thompson (8¢) is one of my favorite players to watch on the defensive end. Absolute dog.
Chet Holmgren (6¢) is posting 3.0 blocks for an unbeaten Thunder team.
Dyson Daniels (3¢) is averaging 3.5 steals. That’s stuffing the box score in exactly the category voters notice.
Evan Mobley (2¢) won this award two seasons ago and is priced like an afterthought.
Who becomes the clear #2 behind Wemby?
Rookie of the Year — 5 Rookies, Little Separation
This is one of the most congested boards in the sport right now. Yaxel Lendeborg (27¢) is the current leader and for good reason. He is posting the most complete line right now with nearly 22 a game to go along with 9 boards and almost 5 assists.
Cameron Boozer (23¢), one of the three guys who held the lead at some point this summer, is quietly averaging a double-double: 15.3 points, 10.5 boards and 4.8 assists. The Grizzlies are off to a surprising 4-0 start.
Caleb Wilson (23¢) the second head of the preseason-favorite-monster, is showing out for the struggling Bulls, averaging 21 and 7 through the first four games.
The third head, AJ Dybantsa (12¢) has gotten punished a little bit by the market for missing the Wizards first four games due to an ankle injury. He has been upgraded to questionable in tonight's game against Cleveland. The price is interesting to me, I think a No. 1 pick debuting a week late can make up some ground fast if he gets off to a good start on a good Wizards team.
Darius Acuff (11¢) is the last rook in double digits and another one already putting up 20+ a game. His usage should be high all season, if he can tighten up his 34% FG and the Kings can string together some wins, he could be a fun one to watch.
Four rookies are either already scoring 20 a night or posting a double double. Does Dybantsa’s debut tonight shake up the order or will this race stay crowded all season?
MIP — Ty Jerome Is Earning Every Cent
Ty Jerome (28¢) leads, and he’s earning it: 29.8 points a night for a Grizzlies team that’s still unbeaten.
Walker Kessler (27¢) is right behind at 16.7/8.0/3.0 in LA.
Ajay Mitchell slid (26¢ → 21¢, −5) despite going for 30 against Phoenix. We’ll see how his usage changes with the Jalen Williams injury.
Brandon Miller (19¢) has been on a tear and just went for 39 against Washington. The Hornets are 3-1 and he’s their leading scorer.
Naz Reid (19¢) is the other name in Charlotte, averaging 19.5 and 9.5.
Terrence Shannon Jr (17¢) and Jaden McDaniels (5¢) are the names to watch in Minnesota with Ant out. Somebody has to eat those shots, and that’s exactly how MIP cases get built.
Does Ant’s injury hand an MIP case to a Wolf?
Sixth Man — Pritchard is Pulling Away
Payton Pritchard (35¢) dropped 28 against Chicago and has won this before in the exact same role. He’s the clear favorite.
The one to watch is Ajay Mitchell: 9¢ here, 21¢ for MIP, for a guy who’s come off the bench in three of his four games. He got the start in the first game without Jalen Williams. If he continues to get the starting nod, he may not be eligible for 6MOTY. The award requires more appearances off the bench than starts, so one promotion doesn’t settle the case, but it doesn’t look like J Will is coming back anytime soon.
Julian Champagnie (7¢) just came off the Spurs bench and drilled eight threes for 26.
The problem for Minnesota’s bench: Ayo Dosunmu slid (14¢ → 10¢, −4), and with Ant out, someone on that bench may get promoted into the starting lineup, which kills a Sixth Man case. Same story in OKC, where Jared McCain (6¢) may take Ajay’s new role of first off the bench.
Is Pritchard already running away with it, or does Champagnie’s eight-three night start something?
Week 2: The Swing Factors
The Ant fallout. His MVP price might be cooked. The real question is how the market reprices McDaniels and Shannon (MIP), and Dosunmu (Sixth Man) as Minnesota’s rotation reshuffles.
Dybantsa’s debut. If he plays tonight and looks healthy, the most crowded board in the sport gets another serious contender.
OKC new rotation. Will Ajay Mitchell stay in the starting lineup? If so, MIP becomes the only thing he can win.
Who This Is For
These boards read differently depending on why you showed up.
For market traders, this is a watchlist, not a ticket. The moves above show where prices already went. Signal, not free money.
For fantasy players, the board can be a live perception gauge. A price moving may reflect changing views of volume, role, and health. That's useful context for rest-of-season value, even without trading an award contract.
For readers here for the storylines, this is the awards race as a live scoreboard. Who's pulling away, who just got dog-walked, which favorite is one bad game from being a falling knife.
Whatever bucket you're in, these are point-in-time market prices, not my predictions or executable quotes.
Don't Over-Read One Week. It's October.
These prices are built on 3 or 4, which means one big game, or an injury can swing a line double digit. That’s not always the market getting smarter; sometimes it’s just the market being recent. Daily movement is a direction, not a destination.
Let us know in the Discord which one of these flips first for you!
This article reflects market activity and pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket, not directional predictions, trade recommendations, or investment advice. Prices shown are point-in-time and may change and vary by state or jurisdiction. Users must meet each platform’s eligibility and age requirements to trade. PredictQ is a marketing partner of Kalshi and Polymarket and may receive compensation for referrals.