The Football Gold model creates an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model covering weather, rest, location and scheduling (25%), and a composite of publicly available power ratings (50%). We turn the projected spread into a win probability, then compare it with the quoted market.
The approach produced a 66-52-3 record in 2025, a 56% win rate excluding pushes and a gain of 8.5 units. In 2026, it’s currently 26-15, a 63.4% win rate and a gain of 12 units. The broader modeling process has also helped produce five Circa Millions cashes in the past five years, including two Top-100 finishes in 2025. Those are our reported results, not a promise about what comes next.
PredictQ record: 10-5, +8.17 units
We're looking for games where our model sees a team's chances differently than the market. Picking the winner is only part of it. The price matters.
The comparisons below include ProphetX's market prices alongside the model's estimated probabilities and quotes from DraftKings Predictions.
This week, six teams stand out: the Vikings, Seahawks, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Steelers, and Commanders.
Scheduling advantages are a major theme again this week. From teams with extended rest to difficult road stretches, our model is identifying several situations where the market might not be properly accounting for rest and location. We're also seeing some interesting discrepancies involving teams whose records might not accurately reflect their underlying performance.
Not all six teams are particularly appealing on the surface. Minnesota's undefeated record comes with some underlying concerns, Arizona is difficult to trust, and Pittsburgh faces a challenging turnaround after playing in Paris. But that's exactly why we're looking at the price rather than simply trying to predict the winner.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Football Gold Composite: Vikings 47%
Quoted market probability: 38.6% at ProphetX
Model gap: 47% − 38.6% = 8.4 percentage points
Minnesota is 6-0, but I'm not convinced the Vikings are nearly as good as their record suggests. They're the sixth-lowest-rated 6-0 team in DVOA history, and the offense still hasn't found much consistency. Detroit, meanwhile, continues to play excellent offensive football. Jared Goff has thrown 14 touchdowns without an interception over his last six games, and the Lions have had success against Brian Flores' aggressive defensive schemes in previous matchups.
But there's more to Minnesota than its offense. The Vikings have one of the NFL's best special teams units, particularly in the return game, and they've been excellent in fourth quarters, going 6-0 ATS in the final quarter this season. Minnesota blitzed on more than 85% of opposing dropbacks last week, and while I'd expect that number to come down against Detroit, it creates an interesting matchup against the Lions' offensive line. Our composite gives the Lions a 53% chance to win, giving Minnesota a 47% chance to win compared to 38.6% on the board. That's our largest pricing discrepancy of the week, even if the Vikings' undefeated record deserves some skepticism.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
Football Gold Composite: Seahawks 68%
Quoted market probability: 62.4% at DraftKings
Model gap: 68% − 62.4% = 5.6 percentage points
Seattle might have the best defense in football right now. The Seahawks just held Sean Payton's offense to 2.9 yards per play, the worst performance of his coaching career, before holding Andy Reid's Chiefs without an explosive play for the first time in his 488-game head-coaching career. Seattle is allowing an NFL-best 4.0 yards per play defensively, while Chicago has the league's worst net yards per play differential over its last three games (-1.8). The Bears are allowing 6.7 yards per play defensively during that stretch, although the Green Bay game without Caleb Williams does skew those numbers somewhat.
The situation also favors Seattle. Chicago is playing its third road game in four weeks and traveling across multiple time zones for Monday Night Football. The Seahawks should also get Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price back, and acquiring Quenton Nelson from Indianapolis could provide an immediate upgrade to a struggling offensive line. There are legitimate concerns, including Charles Cross' ankle injury and Ben Johnson's remarkable primetime record as a head coach and offensive coordinator. But Sam Darnold is 8-0 outright in home night games since leaving the Jets. Our composite gives the Seahawks a 68% probability of prevailing, compared to 62.4% on the board.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Football Gold Composite: Cardinals 31%
Quoted market probability: 27.1% at ProphetX
Model gap: 31% − 27.1% = 3.9 percentage points
Dallas looked impressive offensively against Philadelphia on Monday night, with Dak Prescott moving the ball effectively throughout the game. But I'm still not convinced the Cowboys can consistently stop anybody. Their defense remains a significant liability, and this could be another high-scoring game. Arizona should have opportunities to move the ball even if Dallas is the better team.
The scheduling and historical angles are interesting. Dallas is coming off Monday Night Football, and the Cowboys have also failed to cover five consecutive games as favorites of six or more points. Arizona isn't without concerns, particularly defensively, and Jacoby Brissett's record as an underdog is difficult to ignore. However, we give Arizona a 31% chance to win outright, compared to just 27.1% on the board. This is more about Dallas being overvalued than Arizona suddenly becoming a team we trust.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Football Gold Composite: Buccaneers 59%
Quoted market probability: 55.9% at ProphetX
Model gap: 59% − 55.9% = 3.1 percentage points
Tampa Bay is coming off one of the strangest offensive performances of the season, beating Carolina 43-13 while running the football 49 times and attempting just 11 passes. The Buccaneers' defense and special teams were outstanding, and the defense has quietly played much better over the past couple of weeks. Atlanta also picked up an impressive victory over San Francisco, but the Falcons were outgained by more than 100 yards despite winning. Their offensive line deserves credit, though, allowing just three pressures on 34 dropbacks against the 49ers.
There are several reasons to be cautious about Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are just 1-11 ATS at home since the start of last season, and Baker Mayfield is 13-27-1 ATS as a home favorite. NFC South favorites have also struggled badly in recent seasons. Still, Tampa Bay's underlying performance is stronger than its results suggest, with the Buccaneers ranking as the unluckiest team in the NFL in my model. Our composite gives Tampa Bay a 59% chance to win compared to 55.9% on the board.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Football Gold Composite: Steelers 68%
Quoted market probability: 64.9% at DraftKings
Model gap: 68% − 64.9% = 3.1 percentage points
Pittsburgh's defense has been excellent recently, allowing just 4.2 yards per play over its last three games. Cleveland has improved to 5-2, but the Browns also rank as the luckiest team in the NFL according to my model, and their offensive production remains inconsistent. Deshaun Watson is averaging just -0.03 EPA per play overall, although he's been remarkably effective in the final two minutes of halves. Cleveland is also playing its third road game in four weeks, and Pittsburgh has won 22 consecutive regular-season home games against the Browns.
The concern is Pittsburgh's travel schedule. The Steelers are returning from Paris without a bye, a situation where teams are 0-8 ATS over the last two seasons. That's a difficult trend to overlook, especially considering Pittsburgh has played three of its last four games away from home. Still, Cleveland has historically struggled in consecutive road appearances, going 3-18 outright and 5-16 ATS in the second or later game of those stretches since 2018. Our composite makes Pittsburgh a five-point favorite, compared to a market spread of 3.5, and gives the Steelers a 68% probability of prevailing compared to 64.9% on the board. The defensive matchup and home-field advantage support Pittsburgh, but the international travel makes this one less straightforward than the price suggests.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Football Gold Composite: Commanders 71%
Quoted market probability: 68.6% at DraftKings
Model gap: 71% − 68.6% = 2.4 percentage points
This might be the best situational spot on the entire Week 8 board. Washington is coming off its bye, while Philadelphia is playing on a short week after Monday Night Football. Our scheduling model gives the Commanders a 21-day rolling net rest advantage, tied for the largest of the season. The Eagles have lost four consecutive games outright and their defense has been particularly disappointing, generating zero tackles for loss against Dallas while struggling to create pressure or consistently cover receivers.
Philadelphia's offensive situation isn't much better. Jalen Hurts is out for the season, Saquon Barkley is dealing with back and hamstring issues, and the depth at receiver and offensive line are a mess. Washington has its own injury problems, with Terry McLaurin done for the season and Jacory Croskey-Merritt on injured reserve, but the Commanders' defense has improved, allowing 5.0 yards per play over its last three games compared to 5.6 previously. My model gives the Commanders a 71% probability of prevailing compared to 68.6% on the board. The moneyline discrepancy isn't enormous, but the situational advantages are difficult to ignore.
The biggest theme this week is that our model is finding value in several very different situations.
Minnesota is undefeated but still getting priced like a substantial underdog against Detroit. Seattle has one of the best defenses in football and gets a Chicago team making another difficult road trip. Arizona is much harder to trust, but Dallas' defensive problems and unfavorable historical trends make the Cardinals interesting at the right price.
The other three teams require a little more nuance. Tampa Bay has a modest moneyline advantage despite several concerning home-favorite trends. Pittsburgh's defense and dominance over Cleveland are compelling, but the return from Paris is a legitimate scheduling concern. Washington might have the strongest situational setup of the six, even though its moneyline pricing discrepancy is relatively small.
That's why we don't treat every model edge equally. The numbers identify where the market disagrees with us. The matchup analysis, injuries and scheduling context help determine whether that disagreement is worth acting on.
As always, these are estimated probabilities, not guarantees. Prices can change quickly, and fees can affect the actual cost of a position. The goal isn't to predict every winner. It's to consistently identify opportunities where the available price is better than our estimate of a team's true chances.
This article includes links to PredictQ partners like ProphetX and discusses DraftKings Predictions. We may earn a commission if you use our partner links. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice. Prices and entry counts can change.