DWTS Elimination market resets Tuesday, Ezra Frech still owns the winner board, and the halftime board just got a lot more interesting.
Every Monday, we run hundreds of topics across thousands of active Kalshi Entertainment markets to ask one thing: where is the volume right now? This tells us what people are excited about, talking about and, most importantly, where they are putting their money. That helps us identify where attention is being concentrated so you can spot the story before it’s everywhere. This week, that story wears sequins.
Who this is for
Not everyone reading this is playing the same game. If you trade these markets, treat the loud names as a watchlist, not a buy list. If you’re an entertainment fan who just wants to know which way the wind’s blowing, read the volume as a crowd-sourced attention meter. And if you’re just here for the storylines, enjoy the race, just remember every number is a live price, not a prediction set in stone.
Two numbers do the heavy lifting here: timeliness (how close a market is to resolving) and volume (how much trading activity it’s pulling). Cross them and we can put these markets into three buckets:
· Hot and Loud (top-right) - loads of volume and close to a resolution date
· Big and Banking (top-left) - the crowd is already here, the resolution date is not
· On the Radar (bottom-right) – the clock is loud but the money hasn’t shown up yet
Prices are point in time snapshots as of this writing and move quickly. Here’s what topped the board this week.
Hot and Loud
Dancing with the Stars dominates the chart again
After a surprise non-elimination episode last week, the market to send someone home is ripping.
The twist here is that Tuesday night’s Horror Movie Night will be a double elimination episode, where two couples go home. The market seems confident that one of Jackson or Tyler (and perhaps both) will get the axe, but we’ve seen it whiff in the past few weeks. With 10 couples left, will the market get more efficient, or will the elimination favorites keep surviving? The current lineup has all 10 returning for Horror Movie Night.
The elimination episode airs Tuesday, October 27, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ezra Frech continues to dominate the winner’s market. He’s been the lead favorite for over a month now and has shown very little signs of slowing down. He and partner Daniella Karagach showed out on “Dedication Night”. dancing a contemporary routine to Bloodline by Mon Rovia. Frech dedicated the routine to his mom, Bahar, who joined the pair on the dance floor in a heartwarming performance.
The judges scored it a 37/40, one of the night’s highest scores.
The big mover in this market though is in the second place slot. Amber Glenn has jumped up 8% since last week. She and partner Pasha Pashkov danced to Breathe Me by Sia and dedicated the routine to Amber's sister Brooke, who joined them on the dance floor. The judges said they were “blown away” and awarded the group the highest score of the night (38/40).
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York - Rotten Tomatoes score is gaining traction.
The crime-drama expands nationwide on October 30th following its limited opening. The anticipation has brought trading volume along with it.
The movie has been trading above 90 since the market opened and doesn’t look like it has plans to dip below it. The current/counting Tomatometer has it at 97%, Kalshi is guessing 95.8% and the market is claiming 95.5%. Seems like the film will be a major success from a critic point of view, but where will it finally end up?
Big and Banking
Jay-Z is the story of the week. I hinted in last week’s Culture Radar that he may end up picking himself for the Super Bowl. A day later, reports said he’d done exactly that. Deadline reported on October 20 that an industry insider had confirmed the selection, following Puck's initial report. That's reporting on the planned booking, not a settlement announcement.
The Pro Football Championship Halftime headliner market moved him from 57% to 84% with multiple sources indicating that the decision has been made. The catch here, and the reason it’s at 84% and not 100%, is that neither the NFL or Roc Nation has officially confirmed the report. 84% is a hefty price for an unconfirmed report, but it’s hard to argue against the compiling evidence.
Beyoncé is the fun name here, of course, given her relationship with Jay-Z. But a guest appearance isn't automatically the same thing as being announced as a headliner.
The resolution rules define the underlying as the “first Super Bowl headliner for the half-time show announced” and say that multiple artists announced at once can all resolve to YES. Those rules also list several news organizations alongside the NFL as source agencies. An NFL or Roc Nation announcement isn't the only source contemplated by the contract.
On The Radar
“Tarantino” to be the #1 music video on YouTube’s daily chart has been an exciting race. The track by LISA is up 20% to 63% since 7am this morning. Gaining ground on “Casa Tupka Anthemo”. The clock is ticking here as this one resolves at 11:59 pm on Oct 26th. The video dropped 3-days ago and has already boomed to 59M views on YouTube.
The case against reading too much into any of this
Volume tells you where attention is, not who is right. A few thousand dollars can push a thin entertainment market around, and “contested” cuts both ways. A wide-open field is fun to read and rough to trade. The settlement rules matter more than the narrative. Most of these markets all resolve on specific sources, so read the fine print before you buy.
Next Week’s Watch
Tuesday’s Double Elimination on DWTS. What happens to the rest of the board when two couples go home?
The Jay-Z announcement. One official confirmation and the 84¢ print becomes a settled story.
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York reviews. As more reviews come in this number could be apt to change, let’s see where it settles.
Let us know in the Discord which one of these you’re actually watching!
This piece reflects market activity and pricing on Kalshi, not directional predictions, trade recommendations, or investment advice. Prices are point-in-time and move fast. PredictQ is a marketing partner of Kalshi and may earn a commission on referrals. Trading is 18+ and subject to Kalshi’s eligibility requirements.