The Football Gold model is designed to create an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model accounting for factors like weather, rest, location and scheduling (25%), and a composite of the best publicly available power ratings (50%) to produce a projected spread, which we then convert into a moneyline price and compare directly against prediction markets. The approach has produced a 66-52-3 record (56%, +8.5 units) in 2025 and an 11-6 start (64.7%, +5.5 units) in 2026, while the broader modeling process has helped produce five Circa Millions cashes in the past five years, including two Top-100 finishes in 2025. The goal is simple: establish what we believe the true price should be, then identify where prediction markets are offering something meaningfully different.
One of the ways I like to use prediction markets is to compare the market-implied probability of an outcome with the probability my model produces. The goal isn't just to find disagreement. It's to understand why the model landed on a different number and decide whether the underlying football case actually supports it.
For Week 4, three prices stand out to me: Kansas City, Jacksonville and San Francisco.
Prices may change.
Kansas City Chiefs (3.2% edge)
Football Gold probability: 69%
Best price in market: 65.8% at Polymarket
This is the smallest model discrepancy of the three, but Kansas City is the one I find most interesting from a situational standpoint.
The Chiefs and Raiders both enter this matchup 3-0, and Las Vegas' start deserves respect. The Raiders' win in New Orleans was impressive, and getting Brock Bowers back has made an obvious difference for their offense. Kansas City is also on the second leg of a road trip after winning in Miami in Week 3.
But there's an interesting scheduling angle working in Kansas City's favor. Teams heading into a bye against a divisional opponent that isn't also heading into one are covering at a 70% clip since 2013. That's exactly the setup here.
The Chiefs' biggest edge in this game should be their rushing attack. The Raiders defended the run well in Weeks 1 and 2, allowing just over four yards per carry. Week 3 told a different story: the Saints rushed for 148 yards on 5.3 yards per carry. We don't think that unit holds up for four quarters against Kansas City's ground game.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4.4% edge)
Football Gold probability: 49%
Best price in market: 44.6% at DK
The market has the Jaguars around 45%. Our model calls this close to a true coin flip.
And I'm becoming more convinced the Jaguars are simply better than we thought entering the season.
Jacksonville has earned a bump in our power ratings after its start, and there's an interesting pattern under Liam Coen: when the Jaguars win, they tend to win convincingly. Eight of Jacksonville's last 10 wins have come by at least 14 points, with six of those eight by 22 or more.
Cincinnati looked strong defensively to start the season but got exposed a bit against Pittsburgh, especially in the deep passing game. Coen and Trevor Lawrence have shown they can build a game plan that attacks exactly where the Bengals are vulnerable.
San Francisco 49ers (5.5% edge)
Football Gold probability: 64%
Best price in market: 58.5% at ProphetX
The case starts with how San Francisco has actually played. Through three weeks, the 49ers have looked like one of the best teams in football. The schedule deserves some context (games against Miami and Arizona have helped), but Brock Purdy's performance has been hard to dismiss. If we were handing out an MVP after three weeks, Purdy would be firmly in the conversation.
The injury news is better than it first appeared, too. Mike Evans, Trent Williams and Dre Greenlaw are all considered day-to-day rather than facing long absences: Evans is dealing with a rib injury, Williams a stinger and Greenlaw a quad contusion.
Denver, meanwhile, enters this matchup fresh off a big Sunday Night Football win over the Rams. Denver has faced a gauntlet through three weeks: at Kansas City, at Jacksonville and against the Rams. But two of those three games came at home, where it's notoriously tough to play in September. In their one true road game, they got blown out by the Chiefs in Week 1.
So which of these three gaps would you back first: the Chiefs' scheduling edge, the Jaguars' emerging identity under Coen, or Denver getting a reality check on the road? Drop your take in the channel.
This article includes links to PredictQ partners like Polymarket and ProphetX. We may earn a commission if you use them, which doesn't cost you anything extra and helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice, and prices, odds and lines can change fast, so double check before you move.