Week 9 gave us a little bit of a brake check. After vicious and violent swings from week to week it seems like the market has finally cooled off as we cross the halfway point of the season. Yes, you read that correctly. Halfway through the season. Getting to double-digit weeks in the NFL is like hearing your best friend is moving across the country at the end of the school year. “We’ll still talk everyday, right?” Probably not. But we can’t take the rest of our time together for granted.  

While I was experiencing a mid-NFLife crisis, the crowd quietly re-sorted nearly every award race. The awards boards were calm, the trade deadline was chaos, and the books split on the down-ballot races. And for once, Kalshi and Polymarket mostly agree on all the damage. Here’s how the board shook out after Week 9. 

A quick note on the numbers: all line moves below are Kalshi prices unless stated otherwise. Where Polymarket tells a different story, I’ve called it out. All prices recorded are at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

MVP - New favorite, same two horses

Joe Burrow (19¢ → 32¢, +13),  has finally claimed the belt after committing to defensive arsonry full time over the last four weeks. In that time frame, he has 18 total touchdowns and the Bengals haven’t lost. Madrid was no different on Sunday, Ja’Marr Chase entered the flow state in the first half and Cincinnati rolled to their fourth win in a row.They get the Steelers, Commanders, and Saints to round out November and keep the hot streak going.

Josh Allen (33¢ → 26¢, −7) got passed but didn’t exactly fall apart. He took the Flores medicine like everyone does, and even got the win in Minnesota on MNF. His slide makes sense for this week, we’ll see if it holds up as we get to the heart of the season. The Bills have dates with the Jets, Dolphins, and Chiefs upcoming.

Behind them, Brock Purdy looms at 17¢ and Jordan Love materialized out of the longshot bin to 15¢ on both books. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams threw 4 picks in a win and kind of got repo’d, falling to 4¢ on Kalshi. 

Snapshot captured 10am Tuesday, 11/10

OPOY - The Two Leaders Tread Water, Walker Roundtrips 

The two-man sprint turned, once again, into a three-way vie for first. Jahmyr Gibbs (39¢ → 33¢, −6) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (36¢ → 28¢, −8) both turned in quiet Sundays and the guy who benefitted the most was the one who the market kicked out a week ago. Kenneth Walker III (6¢ → 18¢, +12), torched the Jets for the three touchdowns and has reminded the field he’s also a league-winner for your fantasy leagues.

Three live contenders and potential historic seasons on the line for OPOY, is this one on the verge of breaking open or will it be tight all the way through? 

Snapshot captured 10am Tuesday, 11/10

Coach of the Year - Harbaugh tightens his grip

John Harbaugh continues to pull away (33¢ → 35¢ on Kalshi, and a strong 26¢ → 38¢ on Polymarket). The Giants keep winning despite the carousel at Quarterback and the market is rewarding the head coach. When the preseason favorite gets off to the division lead through the first 9 weeks, the market won’t back down. 

The chasers are still figuring out their identities: Ben Johnson cooled a bit (19¢ → 14¢), Kyle Shanahan ticked back up (13¢ → 16¢; Poly 18¢), and Liam Coen keeps inching up (5¢ → 8¢). 

Are we seeing the ceiling for Harbaugh and the Giants or are we seeing him ride off into the sunset? They get the Commanders, Jags and Colts up next. 

Snapshot captured 10am Tuesday, 11/10

ROY - The Food Fight 

Not to be dramatic, but I’m starting to question whether any of these guys actually want to win the award.

• Carnell Tate (20¢ → 21¢, +1) rose slightly despite not playing. 

• Denzel Boston (13¢ → 12¢, -1) barely budged after a quiet Sunday 

• Jonah Coleman (13¢ → 18¢, +5) has the keys to the castle but didn't do much with the full workload

• KC Concepcion (9¢ → 14¢, +5) is fighting with his teammate, Boston, to decide who the alpha in Cleveland is. On Sunday it was KC.

Nobody has separated in the field and the two platforms can’t even agree on the order. Polymarket is higher on Jonah Coleman (23¢ vs Kalshi’s 18¢) and down on Tate (17¢ vs 21¢). These rookie books are thinner than the headline markets, so some of that gap is noise, but the gap remains regardless.

I’ll be monitoring the Fernando Mendoza (6¢) situation. If none of the above want to take the leap this second half of the season, and Mendoza finds his way onto the field, his price could change in a hurry. 

Is anyone going to break out and run away with this race? 

Snapshot captured 10am Tuesday, 11/10

The quick hits — Super Bowl board and DPOY

On the Super Bowl board, the top is sticky. San Francisco 15¢, Buffalo 14¢, Chicago 13¢, but the mover here is Jacksonville (8¢ → 11¢, +3; Poly up at 12¢), softly building a contender’s price tag. Kansas City keeps leaking despite the win (9¢ → 8¢).

In DPOY, Will Anderson Jr. remains the man (30¢ → 34¢), but the real riser is Fred Warner (13¢ → 21¢, +8), who now owns a clear second. Behind them the market thinned the field in a hurry: T.J. Watt (14¢ → 6¢) and Aidan Hutchinson (11¢ → 3¢) both got diced up as the money consolidated at the top.

Bonus: Deadline Day — Where Does Jonathan Taylor Land?

Last week, the headlines swarmed with the Colts being open to moving their All-Pro back. Well, it’s Nov. 10. Deadline day. And the market’s verdict on the biggest name on the block is… he’s probably just going to stay put.

Indianapolis has become the leader in the clubhouse to retain JT: 56¢ (14¢ → 56¢, +42). That’s a coin flip with a thumb on the scale, but not exactly a vote of confidence from a team that spent the whole offseason talking about building around him. 

Behind Indy, the buyers:

• Giants — 16¢ (13¢ → 16¢, +3). Of course it’s the Giants. Harbaugh’s crew just walked into Philly and stole a road dub, and nothing says “we’re buying” like a team that suddenly believes. Adding an All-Pro back to a team playing with house money is exactly the kind of move a COY frontrunner’s front office makes.

• Vikings — 11¢ (24¢ → 11¢, -13). Fresh off getting dog-walked 23-6 by Buffalo on Monday night, Minnesota looks more like a team that needs a spark than one that can afford to wait.

And notice who isn’t at the top: Denver (2¢) and Seattle (1¢), two of the four teams reported to have called last week, have fallen off the front of the board. The market thinks those talks have gone cold.

Deadline markets don’t age well, by the time you read this, this one may have already settled. So, is 56% the Colts standing firm, or the last bit of juice before somebody blinks?

Week 10: The Swing Factors

• Does Burrow hold the belt? He leads 32¢–26¢, but favorites at 32¢ have a target on their back and the Bills are 7-1. One flat Bengals game and the longtime favorite is right there waiting.

• The OPOY logjam. Gibbs, JSN, and Walker are bunched 33/28/18 across three teams. First to string together two big weeks starts to separate.

• Harbaugh’s grip. Another Giants win and this race starts to look like a parade by Thanksgiving.

• Taylor’s landing spot. If Jonathan Taylor ends up a Giant, does it juice Harbaugh’s COY number even further? 

Let us know in the Discord which one of these flips first for you!

This article reflects market activity and pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket, not directional predictions, trade recommendations, or investment advice. Prices shown are point-in-time and may change and vary by state or jurisdiction. Users must meet each platform’s eligibility and age requirements to trade. PredictQ is a marketing partner of Kalshi and Polymarket and may receive compensation for referrals.

Who This Is For

These boards read differently depending on why you showed up.

For market traders, this is a watchlist, not a ticket. The moves above show where prices already went. Signal, not free money.

For fantasy players, the board can be a live perception gauge. A price moving up like Walker may reflect changing views of volume, role, and health. That's useful context for rest-of-season value, even without trading an award contract.

For readers here for the storylines, this is the awards race as a live scoreboard. Who's pulling away, who tanked, which favorite is one bad Sunday from being a falling knife.

Whatever bucket you're in, these are point-in-time market prices, not my predictions or executable quotes.