Editor's note: Jason Gold is an independent contractor who is solely responsible for the Football Gold model. The picks and model are operated independently from PredictQ and provided here for entertainment purposes.
The Football Gold model creates an independent price for every NFL game. It combines our own power ratings (25%), a situational model covering weather, rest, location and scheduling (25%), and a composite of publicly available power ratings (50%). We turn the projected spread into a win probability, then compare it with the quoted market.
The approach produced a 66-52-3 record in 2025, a 56% win rate excluding pushes and a gain of 8.5 units. In 2026, it’s currently 33-22 (60% win rate), with a gain of 10.5 units. The broader modeling process has also helped produce five Circa Millions cashes in the past five years, including two Top-100 finishes in 2025. Those are our reported results, not a promise about what comes next.
PredictQ record: 16-10, +11.86 units
We're looking for games where our model sees a team's chances differently than the market. Picking the winner is only part of it. The price matters. The quoted ProphetX markets are linked in the game sections below.
The comparisons below use quoted prediction-market prices from our Week 10 snapshot.
This week, five teams stand out: the Jets, Panthers, Patriots, Cowboys, and Colts.
There's a consistent theme across these selections. Our model sees several matchups as considerably more competitive than the market suggests, particularly games involving some of the NFL's more recognizable favorites. But that doesn't mean the underdogs are necessarily playing well.
New York and Carolina show why the details matter. The Jets' underlying efficiency numbers suggest they're better than their record, while New Orleans continues to struggle in situations that should favor the Panthers. New England and Dallas are facing difficult opponents, but both have reasons to believe their games could be closer than the market expects. Indianapolis presents a different case, with significant personnel changes on both sides potentially creating an opportunity for the Colts.
As always, the goal isn't to blindly follow the largest discrepancy. It's to understand why the market and our model disagree.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Football Gold Composite: Jets 31%
Quoted market probability: 20.5% at ProphetX
Model gap: 31% − 20.5% = +10.5 percentage points
The Jets have our largest pricing discrepancy this week. That doesn't make this a comfortable position. New York is 2-7 and coming off another difficult performance, while Buffalo continues to roll. The Bills just passed a significant test against Minnesota, showing they can win without necessarily relying on their offense to dominate every possession. Buffalo's defense has also improved considerably, allowing just 4.5 yards per play over its last three games compared to 5.2 for the season.
Still, there's a case that Buffalo's price is too high. The Bills have 7 actual wins compared to 5.22 expected wins in our model, suggesting they've benefited from some favorable results. Their offense has also cooled, falling from 6.0 yards per play on the season to 5.1 over the last three games. Meanwhile, the Jets have underperformed their expected wins by 1.60 games and have maintained a +0.2 net yards-per-play differential both for the season and over their last three contests. That's not particularly impressive, but it's considerably better than what their record suggests.
The scheduling situation offers a mixed picture. Buffalo is coming off Monday Night Football and traveling on a short week, a spot where Josh Allen has historically struggled against the number. The Bills are just 4-10-1 ATS on the road with Allen playing on short rest. However, our scheduling model still gives Buffalo a five-day rolling net rest advantage, and the acquisition of safety Amani Hooker should provide another boost to an improving defense.
There are legitimate reasons the Jets are priced this cheaply. Since 2023, New York is 1-20 outright as an underdog of six or more points and 0-17 as an underdog of seven or more. Aaron Glenn's team has also struggled badly in divisional games. And yes, the matchup against Buffalo's offense could be a nightmare.
Our composite gives New York a 31% chance to win compared to just 20.5% on the board. That's a substantial disagreement, but the Jets' recent performance and Buffalo's improving defense make this one of the more difficult edges to evaluate.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Football Gold Composite: Panthers 53%
Quoted market probability: 45.3% at ProphetX
Model gap: 53% − 45.3% = +7.7 percentage points
Our model makes Carolina a slight favorite. The market favors New Orleans. The Saints are coming off an overtime victory against Cleveland, but their defense remains vulnerable, particularly against downfield passing attacks. New Orleans has also lost defensive tackle Devon Godchaux to Jacksonville, although Chase Young and Carl Granderson remain a dangerous pass-rushing combination with 8.5 and 7.5 sacks, respectively.
The bigger concern for New Orleans is its inability to consistently perform at home. The Saints are 1-3 outright and 0-4 ATS at home this season, and they haven't finished above .500 ATS at home since 2017. Under Kellen Moore, New Orleans is just 1-4 outright and ATS when playing its second or later consecutive home game. The Saints have also been particularly poor early in games, going 1-7 ATS in first halves this season and 6-19 under Moore.
Carolina isn't without problems. The Panthers' offensive efficiency has declined from 5.5 yards per play on the season to 4.7 over their last three games, while their net yards-per-play differential has fallen from +0.2 to -0.4. Bryce Young has also struggled considerably on the road, where Carolina averages just 16.9 points per game compared to 20.2 at home during his starts. New Orleans also holds a four-day rolling net rest advantage.
But Dave Canales has consistently gotten strong responses from his team following losses. He's 17-8 ATS in those situations as Carolina's head coach, including 16-5 with Bryce Young starting. More notably, Canales and Young are 8-0 ATS against NFC South opponents following a loss, winning six of those games outright. That contrasts with New Orleans' continued struggles at home.
Neither team has played consistently enough to inspire much confidence, but the market's decision to favor New Orleans is difficult to reconcile with the Saints' home performances and Carolina's divisional track record under Canales. Our composite gives the Panthers a 53% chance to win compared to 45.3% on the board.
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
Football Gold Composite: Patriots 49%
Quoted market probability: 42.5% at ProphetX
Model gap: 49% − 42.5% = +6.5 percentage points
New England might be the most difficult team on this list to trust after its performance against Green Bay. The Patriots were thoroughly outplayed, and Drake Maye struggled badly against another quality opponent. Now they face Detroit in Munich, Germany, with significant injury concerns. Will Campbell, Carlton Davis, and Rhamondre Stevenson all sustained injuries against the Packers, while the availability of A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson is also uncertain. It's a difficult situation for Mike Vrabel's team.
Detroit hasn't exactly been operating at its usual level, either. The Lions have now put together two consecutive offensive performances that haven't resembled the explosive unit we've grown accustomed to seeing. Their underlying numbers remain solid, with a +0.4 net yards-per-play differential for the season and +0.6 over their last three games, but those figures aren't particularly dominant. Detroit has also outperformed its expected wins by 1.36 games, suggesting its record might slightly overstate its performance.
The Lions' secondary remains a potential weakness. Opponents are throwing against Detroit on approximately 68% of plays, an indication that teams are actively targeting its pass defense. The acquisition of safety Andre Cisco from the Jets should help, but New England may still have opportunities through the air if Maye can rebound. That's far from guaranteed, particularly with the Patriots' offensive injuries and a defense that has slipped from allowing 5.5 yards per play on the season to 6.1 over its last three games.
The international setting adds another layer of uncertainty. Dan Campbell is coaching his first international game, while Vrabel has been through the experience twice. First-time international coaches facing opponents with prior experience are 3-8 outright and 4-7 ATS. New England also has a strong history of responding to losses, winning seven consecutive games following an outright defeat and covering six of them.
There are plenty of reasons to favor Detroit, particularly given New England's injury situation and recent performance. But our composite makes this game essentially a coin flip, giving the Patriots a 49% probability compared to 42.5% on the board. The gap matters, but New England's injuries make a rebound difficult to project.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Football Gold Composite: Cowboys 41%
Quoted market probability: 34.9% at ProphetX
Model gap: 41% − 34.9% = +6.1 percentage points
San Francisco might be the best team in football right now, and this matchup presents some serious problems for Dallas. The 49ers lead the NFL with a +1.5 net yards-per-play differential and have the highest Super Bowl probability in our model at 17.1%. Their offense is operating at an extremely high level, and Dallas has struggled to consistently stop opponents. The biggest question might simply be whether the Cowboys can prevent San Francisco from scoring 40 points.
But Dallas has shown some underlying improvement despite its inconsistent results. The Cowboys' net yards-per-play differential has improved from -0.2 on the season to +0.4 over their last three games, while their defense has improved from allowing 5.8 yards per play to 5.3. Dallas has also posted three of its four best pass-block win rate performances over its last three games. The problem has been offensive decision-making. Dallas continues to run the ball more frequently than expected, including a -9.1% pass rate over expected in its most recent game, despite having one of the most potent passing attacks in the NFL.
The historical trends offer conflicting signals. Brock Purdy is 3-0 outright and ATS against Dallas, while Dak Prescott is just 1-11 ATS against NFC West opponents since 2020. But Prescott and the Cowboys are also 7-2 ATS as underdogs since last season, including 3-0 as home underdogs.
San Francisco deserves to be favored, and its offensive advantages are difficult to ignore. But Dallas' improving efficiency and potential buy-low profile suggest this game could be more competitive than the current price indicates. Our composite gives Dallas a 41% chance to win compared to 34.9% on the board.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
Football Gold Composite: Colts 67%
Quoted market probability: 64.5% at BetRivers
Model gap: 67% − 64.5% = +2.5 percentage points
Indianapolis is the outlier on this list. The Colts have lost five consecutive games and have been one of the NFL's worst teams by underlying efficiency, but this matchup against Miami presents an opportunity to finally turn things around. Our composite makes Indianapolis a six-point favorite, compared to a market spread closer to 3.5 points. The win-probability discrepancy is smaller than the spread difference might suggest, but it's still notable.
The Colts' recent numbers are ugly. Indianapolis has a -1.6 net yards-per-play differential for the season, which has deteriorated to -2.3 over its last three games, the worst mark in the NFL. The team also moved Josh Downs to Kansas City before the trade deadline, leaving a severely depleted receiving group while Alec Pierce works toward returning. Jonathan Taylor remaining in Indianapolis provides some stability, but the offensive ceiling is questionable.
Miami has problems of its own, and the quarterback situation is the primary reason our model favors Indianapolis so strongly. Malik Willis has been placed on injured reserve, leaving Kyle McCord in line to start. That's a significant downgrade at the most important position. The Dolphins have also placed defensive lineman Zach Sieler on injured reserve, weakening a defense that had shown signs of improvement. Miami has faced the NFL's toughest schedule, which helps explain some of its struggles, but its net yards-per-play differential remains poor at -0.6 for the season and -0.8 over its last three games.
The scheduling picture isn't entirely favorable for Indianapolis. Miami holds a four-day rolling net rest advantage, and teams riding losing streaks of five or more games that are favored have historically struggled against the spread. Since 2000, those teams are just 38-53 ATS.
We entered the week believing Indianapolis was undervalued and the subsequent quarterback news in Miami strengthens the underlying case, although the Colts' own offensive problems remain significant. Our composite gives Indianapolis a 67% chance to win compared to 64.5% on the board. This isn't the largest probability edge of the week, but the matchup and quarterback circumstances make it one of the more interesting situations.
Final Thoughts
Our model sees several games as more competitive than the market does. The reasons differ from matchup to matchup.
The Jets represent the largest pricing disagreement, with their underlying performance suggesting they're better than their record. But Buffalo's improving defense and New York's historically poor results as a substantial underdog make this an uncomfortable position. Carolina might offer the more straightforward case, with the Saints continuing to struggle at home and Dave Canales demonstrating a strong history of getting his team to respond following losses.
New England and Dallas are both facing opponents with legitimate championship aspirations. Detroit and San Francisco deserve to be favored, but neither matchup is without potential vulnerabilities. The Patriots have a chance to exploit Detroit's secondary if their offense can recover, while Dallas has shown meaningful improvement in its efficiency metrics despite inconsistent results. Both games also carry significant personnel and scheduling questions.
Indianapolis is the outlier. The Colts' underlying performance has been terrible, but Miami's quarterback change and defensive injuries create a very different matchup than the one initially priced earlier in the week. Our model continues to see Indianapolis as a stronger favorite than the market does, although the smaller probability edge makes the entry price particularly important.
That's why we don't treat every model edge equally. The numbers identify where the market disagrees with us. The matchup analysis, injuries, scheduling, and underlying efficiency metrics help determine whether that disagreement is justified.
As always, these are estimated probabilities, not guarantees. Prices can change quickly, and fees can affect the actual cost of a position. The goal isn't to predict every winner. It's to consistently identify opportunities where the available price is better than our estimate of a team's true chances.
This article includes links to PredictQ partner ProphetX. We may earn a commission if you use our partner links. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice. Prices and entry counts can change.