Week 4 is a wrap and the theme this week was simple: the market stopped protecting its favorites. Carnell Tate went supernova, the DPOY board bailed on a star, the Niners finally got the respect on Polymarket that Kalshi had been handing them for weeks and the two exchanges are flat out split on who should win Coach of the Year.
Below is what moved, why it moved, and where there’s an edge between the two deepest books in Kalshi, and Polymarket.
A quick note on the numbers: all line moves below are Kalshi prices unless stated otherwise, since it's the deeper book across most of these markets. Where Polymarket tells a different story, I've called it out. All prices recorded are at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Rookie of the Year: Carnell Tate Arrives in Style
Carnell Tate (5% → 22%, +17) was the biggest mover on the entire board following the rookie's eruption of 145 yards on 9 catches in the loss against the Ravens. It was the most yards by a Titans rookie since A.J. Brown went for 153 his rookie season. Tate finally looked like the number 1 option the team spent a top 5 pick on and is one of the few bright spots on the winless squad. Last week the market priced him as a dart throw and one big game has him repriced as a real contender. The market moves fast indeed.
When someone rises, someone else must fall and Jeremiyah Love (41% → 31%, -10) took the bulk of Tate’s rampage, giving back nearly a double-digit chunk. Denzel Boston (10% → 18%, +8) climbed a bit too, following another solid performance on Thursday Night. He currently leads the 3-1 Browns (yes, you read that right) in receiving through the first month of the season. The board is getting less comfortable for the early favorite.
Did we just see Tate’s ceiling or do the Titans keep running the offense through their rookie star?
Defensive Player of the Year: Hutchinson Loses ground
Aidan Hutchinson (17% → 4%, -13) had the ugliest print on both books this week (Poly cut him 18% → 8% as well). To me, this massive falloff is more a reaction to the Lions trotting out one of the worst defenses in the league than Hutch individually struggling. Through 4 games they have allowed: 31.8 points per game (31st in the league), over 420 yards per game, and the most passing yards in NFL history through the first four (1,227). The only person to win DPOY on a bottom-10 defense was Khalil Mack on the 2016 Raiders, and their 12 wins covered a lot of that up. It looks like Hutchinson’s price will only rise if the entire defense does.
The cents he gave up got redistributed to Will Anderson (25% → 27%, +2) who now sits at the top of the board, Dallas Turner (8% → 14%, +6) and T.J. Watt (3% → 10%, +7).
Do you think this is a buy-low spot for Hutch or is Will Anderson going to continue to dominate the market?
Offensive Player of the Year: Bijan and Walker ball out, Lamb wakes up
Bijan Robinson (9% → 19%, +10) keeps shooting his way up the board with continuous strong performances. It is fun to think about how much more he would’ve risen here had he gotten 1 or 2 of the Brian Robinson touchdowns on Monday Night. Alas, he still trails the Hedgehog but has chewed into Gibbs’ lead slightly.
Kenneth Walker (12% → 20%, +8) is the other big jumper that is chasing down Gibbs with another dominant performance for KC. Both he and Bijan’s rise came at the expense of the Lions RB, who gave back 6%, bringing his price down to 22%.
The quiet riser here was Ceedee Lamb (2% → 8%, +6) who quadrupled his number after dominating the Texans for 17(!!!) receptions for 183 and 1. JSN cooled off (19% → 11%, -8) and Ja’Marr Chase (5% → 2%, -3) got cut once again. Looks like a three headed monster for first at the moment, will anyone actually catch Gibbs?
Super Bowl Champ: The Niners finally get respect on Polymarket
San Francisco 49ers (Polymarket 4% → 10%, +6) was the big mover here, and it was just Poly catching up with Kalshi, who already had the Niners near the top. The Niners forced the book to close the 2x gap that had been sitting on the screen for weeks. After the unbeaten start, they’re topping power rankings and the books finally agree on it. Congrats if you got in on the Kalshi number early.
MVP: Allen falls to rejoin the field
We spotted this a couple weeks ago after Josh Allen’s dominant week 2 and he almost tripled up the field in the MVP race. It’s not like he’s been struggling, he was just priced (28% after week 2) to be flawless, and normal weeks won’t juice a number that’s already that fat. He’s now tied for the favorite (26% → 19%, -7) with Brock Purdy (18% → 19%, +1) who is holding ground while staying unbeaten.
Behind these two, Lamar slid back a bunch (11% → 3%, -8), Burrow cooled off (8% → 4%, -4). and Dak quietly climbed up after another strong performance (3% → 7%, +4).
Will Allen regain control or is this the year of Purdy?
Coach of the Year: Ben Johnson thriving without QB1
Ben Johnson (14% → 18%, +4) tops the board as the favorite on Kalshi, who has now won back-to-back games with a different starting Quarterback. Polymarket, once again, took a week to catch up as he moved from 9% to 15% over there.
Klint Kubiak is the interesting one here as Poly and Kalshi wildly disagree on his chances to win the award. On Kalshi, he gave back 4% since last week, bringing his price to 15%, On Polymarket, he’s priced way up at 21% as the favorite.
Which book do you think will prove to be wrong here?
Week 5 Swing Factors
Tate’s encore: The price movement here will be an interesting watch as I imagine the market will be extremely reactive to whatever he does on Sunday against the Texans, who just got scorched by Ceedee Lamb.
OPOY: Will the market punish Kenneth Walker while he’s on bye week if Gibbs and Bijan continue to dominate?
DPOY: If the Lions defense can take advantage of a mediocre Cardinals team, will Hutch’s price look like a discount?
Which of these award races do you think changes most in Week 5? Bring your reasoning to the PredictQ Discord.
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