Week 5 was the week the frontrunners stopped sharing. For the first month of the season, the boards stayed tight while the market tried to figure out who the contenders were. This week, however, the money picked sides and, in a few markets, it picked decisively.
We have a defensive market that is being dominated, an MVP race that's consolidated to a two-horse race, and a new favorite for Coach of the Year. Here's what moved, why it moved and where there may be a disagreement between Kalshi and Polymarket.
A quick note on the numbers: all line moves below are Kalshi prices unless stated otherwise. Where Polymarket tells a different story, I've called it out. All prices and snapshots recorded are at the time of writing and are subject to change. Changes are measured in percentage points, not American-style odds or percentage returns.
Who This Is Actually For
Not everyone reading this is playing the same game, so here’s how to use the board depending on where you sit.
If you’re actively trading these markets, the movers above are a watchlist, not a buy list.
If you’re a fantasy player or a fan who just wants to know which way the wind is blowing, read these as a crowd-sourced perception meter. .
And if you’re just here for the storylines, that’s half the fun, enjoy the race. Just keep in mind every number is a live price, not a prediction carved in stone.
DPOY: Will Anderson, Will Anderson, Will Anderson
Calling Will Anderson a contender at this point almost feels like I'm sugarcoating his current price-dominance. After getting to Cam Ward for 3 sacks on Sunday, Anderson ripped on both books, (27% -> 46%, +19) on Kalshi, and (27% to 50%, +23) on Polymarket. A price that high this early in the season might usually feel rich but it's hard to argue against how elite he's been to start the season. More multi-sack Sundays would make the chase awfully uncomfortable for everyone else.
Is 46% his ceiling or will he continue to rise as the season moves on? He gets Trevor Lawrence, Jameis Winston, and Justin Herbert to hunt down next.
MVP: Josh Allen's month-long parade is now a two-man sprint
The stallion can run, but does Brock Purdy run faster? Purdy has moved violently (17% -> 28%, +11) on Kalshi, and (20% -> 26%, +6) on Polymarket following yet another win for the 49ers. Allen followed suit, though jumping up 8 trying to chase down Purdy after a fun, Overtime win against the Rams in LA Monday night.
This has been a pretty reactive market from week to week, so none of these prices are set in stone. What does the board look like a month from now?
OPOY: Gibbs takes the wheel back, Walker slips on his bye week
Last week was the first time since July Jahmyr Gibbs took a backseat in this award race and it didn't last long. After totaling over 200 yards and 2 scores on Sunday Gibbs has, yet again, reminded us why he was the 1.01 in most Fantasy leagues. He earned a 30% tag on Kalshi, jumping up 7 from last week. Will he be punished by either book for being on Bye week this week?
Bijan Robinson is trying his best to keep pace, and the field didn't really punish him for his lukewarm outing in the loss against the Ravens. He is up 1 from last week, sitting at 20%.
Kenneth Walker III rounds out the list at 15%, taking a -6 at the chin after having Sunday off and JSN has cratered a bit, with his price nearly being cut in half, down to 8% after another strong performance (5 for 118 and a touchdown. Getting punished for going for over 100 and a score shows just how competitive the race is this year.
Three running backs in double digits, is this the layout we should get comfortable with or is JSN a big Sunday away from reentering the fray?
ROY: Another Two Man Race
Another market that might see a favorite lose his polling for the first time since the summer, Jeremiyah Love had a negative game script in the blowout loss and his price paid for it. He's dipped in price for the second week in a row, currently sitting at 25% (-6).
Denzel Boston is nearly the market's new leader after scoring his 3rd touchdown of the season and potentially losing his fellow rookie teammate KC Concepcion to injury for a bit in the process. Boston, who was sub 5% to start the season has jumped up to an astounding 24% to win ROY for the 3-2 Browns.
Carnell Tate and his price came back down to earth in a round-trip (24% -> 12%, -12) after following up his eruption with nothing but cold air (1 catch for 6 yards). As it stands now, it looks like last week's price might have been an overreaction to a single loud Sunday, but this market moves in a quickly and can change in a hurry again.
COY: A New Favorite Emerges
Kyle Shanahan is finally moving in lockstep with his quarterback, as the COY market is rewarding the Niners for their unbeaten start. He's one of the biggest movers of the week (6% -> 22%, +16) on Kalshi and (6% -> 25%, +19) on Polymarket. If the Niners keep winning, the price may keep moving. They get the Commanders, the Falcons and the Raiders upcoming.
Ben Johnson traders got steamrolled this past week, going from the favorite at 16% to fifth at 8% after getting beaten badly by division rival Green Bay. With Caleb's return looming, does Ben have a chance to get back in the race?
New this week: Comeback Player of the Year
We've added the Comeback Player of the Year board to the tracker, and there's not much suspense at the top: Patrick Mahomes is the runaway at 63% on Kalshi and 65% on Polymarket. After that it's a scramble: Fred Warner, Kyler Murray, and a long tail of names trading on pennies. Week-over-week moves on this one start next week.
Price Discrepancies: where the books flatly disagree
A reminder before the bullets: I only flag markets where both books are actually liquid. A lot of Polymarket's award longshots trade are just too thin and might not be actual disagreements, could be just noise. With that said, the real gaps this week:
COY - John Harbaugh: 11% on Kalshi and 6% on Polymarket. The market loves a coach that can win with a backup QB. Monitor the Giants team performances weekly and check for Harbaugh corresponding moves. They get the Saints, Texans and Eagles upcoming.
MVP — Patrick Mahomes: 9% on Kalshi and 16% Polymarket. He sits third in both books, but a notable price difference exists. We've noted before that MVP is winning-QB award and the Chiefs are unbeaten coming out of the Bye week. They have dates with the Chargers, Seahawks, and Broncos on the horizon.
OPOY — Kenneth Walker: 15% Kalshi and 21% Polymarket. This one is interesting because it looks like Walker got punished on Kalshi while being on Bye week and he treaded water on Polymarket.
Why You Shouldn’t Just Blindly Act on Any of This
Quick gut-check before anyone gets carried away: a price move or discrepancy is not a verdict. These are October prices on awards that don’t get handed out until February, and a alot happens in between: injuries, cold streaks, a backup catching fire. The market that’s “sure” about Will Anderson today was just as sure about somebody else in Week 1.
Treat the board as a map of where the crowd’s head is at, then do your own homework before you put a dollar down.
Week 6: The Swing Factors
Can anything slow Will Anderson's contract? At 46–50% he's priced as the clear frontrunner. The only thing that re-opens this race is a quiet week and big performance from a competitor. Watch whether a sack-less Sunday actually moves the number, or if the market just holds the line.
Purdy vs Allen, round two. They're neck and neck. The first one to post a signature Sunday may take control of the MVP board and someone might have to pay for it.
Let us know in the Discord which one of these flips first for you!
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