Week of October 12, 2026
Dancing with the Stars, a new James Bond and Haaland continues to lead Bad Bunny.
Every Monday, we run hundreds of topics across thousands of active Kalshi Entertainment markets to ask one thing: where is the volume right now? This tells us what people are excited about, talking about and, most importantly, where they are putting their money. That helps us identify where attention is being concentrated so you can spot the story before it’s everywhere.
Two numbers do the heavy lifting here: timeliness (how close a market is to resolving) and volume (how much trading activity it’s pulling). Cross them and we can put these markets into three buckets:
· Hot and Loud (top-right) - loads of volume and close to a resolution date
· Big and Banking (top-left) - the crowd is already here, the resolution date is not
· On the Radar (bottom-right) – the clock is loud but the money hasn’t shown up yet
Prices are point in time as of this writing and move quickly. Here’s what topped the board this week.
Hot and Loud
Dancing with the Stars is the story once again, with elimination looming and a favorite holding ground.
Tuesday night’s elimination market puts Tyler Cameron at the top of the exit board. That’s the “favorite” title nobody is happy to claim.
Cameron’s had a rough start, including a 16/30 judges’ score for his Week 2 salsa. All hope isn’t lost for the former Bachelorette runner-up, however. In theory, that runner-up run does come with a strong fanbase: Bachelor Nation is known to show up for its DWTS hopefuls, and three prior DWTS winners actually came from the franchise.
This is a votes-versus-judges story, and the money is following it. Cameron’s last score (21/30) matched Jackson Olson’s and Ciara Miller’s, and Miller was the one sent home, while Guillermo Rodriguez survived a 13/30. The volume is rising after every episode in this market: $3 million for Episode 4 to $4.2 million for Episode 5 and nearly $5 million for Episode 6.
There is a trend developing here. In last week's Culture Radar, we spotted Jackson Olson trading at above 60% to be eliminated the day before, Jackson survived. The week before, Covers had Tatyana Ali as the favorite to go home (41%), and she survived. Of course, two outcomes don’t prove the favorite is always overpriced but it will be interesting to see if the market becomes more efficient going forward.
Will the trend of favorites surviving continue or will Tyler Cameron break it Tuesday night?
Ezra Frech enjoys yet another week sitting atop Kalshi’s DWTS winner market (56%) after scoring the tied-second-highest with the judges for he and Danielle Karagach’s performance of Rumba on Mariah Carey night.
Maura Higgins sits quite a bit further down on the board (14%), despite earning the highest score from the judges on the same night. The Mariah Carey Night recap is a useful reminder that the judges and the market aren’t ranking the same thing.
This will be a fun one to monitor as the field shrinks down in size. Let us know in the Discord if you think Frech holds on over the next few weeks.
Haaland over Bad Bunny
What a year for Erling Haaland. He led Norway to its first World Cup quarterfinal, became an internet sensation, has probably the greatest fan-made fight song I’ve ever heard, currently leads the Premier League in goals and is the current Kalshi favorite to be the most googled person this year.
He’s extended his lead a bit in the past few days with Haaland in the news.
A rules note does matter here though. The contract names Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global “People” ranking, rather than everyday search volume or a news headline. Check the full exchange settlement terms before trading; the contract’s December date isn’t a promise that the list will be published on that day. The market runs through Dec. 31, 2026, so there are about two and a half months of news cycle left.
Is there any chance Bad Bunny or Trump catches the Norwegian superstar?
Big and Banking
The name is Bond, Callum Turner Jack Lowden Callum Turner again now back to Jack Lowden, James Bond.
The next James Bond market keeps giving us a new leading man before the film even has one.
I’ve never seen so much geometry on one market before. The historical snapshots show how unsettled this casting story has been. These are dated observations, not current quotes.
Nov. 2025 to mid-May 2026: Turner held the top spot in the historical timeline, with a roughly 39% snapshot in mid-May. A separate newsletter snapshot put him at 44%, with Jacob Elordi at 22%. Those observations aren’t from the same instant.
Mid-July: Aaron Taylor-Johnson briefly became the favorite for about a week in July, peaking at 44% on reports he’d been offered the part, then fell to roughly 15% within a week when the story didn’t hold up. Turner took the top spot back.
Mid-August: The race got tight as Lowden emerged. Kalshi had Turner at 29%, Lowden at 28% and Elordi at 13%.
Early September:the dated Kalshi snapshot put Lowden at 32% against Turner at 27%, amid Richard Osman’s comments that Lowden was “definitely being strongly considered.” Casting speculation still isn’t an announcement.
Oct. 2:Lowden still led at 44%, with Turner at 39% and Jack O’Connell at 11%. Turner had rebounded, but those numbers don’t put him back in first place.
Oct. 5 (James Bond Day): Action Network’s bookmaker average had Lowden at 55.56% and Turner at 26.67%, noting Turner had held No. 1 since March before Lowden overtook him.
Oct. 12 (day of writing): Lowden (40%) and Turner (39%) are neck and neck.
How to read a long board. When a market lists dozens of names like the one here, the “yes” prices usually add up to more than 100¢, so every price overstates that name’s real odds. That excess is called overround. An early-September analysis found Kalshi’s Bond board summing to about 161¢, which rescaled Callum Turner’s 28¢ to roughly 17%. In a hypothetical board totaling 161¢, a 28¢ contract takes up 28 ÷ 161 = 0.174, or about 17.4%, of the summed prices. Spreads, fees, quote timing, and whether the outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive all matter. Don’t treat prices summing above $1 as proof that every individual name is overpriced.
One caveat before trading the board. Casting rumors can arrive long before an official announcement, and the contract’s deadline can extend well beyond the next news cycle. Read the exchange’s resolution rules and closing date before opening a position. A rumor about when an actor might be chosen isn’t the same thing as a settlement trigger.
Oscars Prices remain stagnant
No huge update or big movers from last week’s check-in on the Oscars. Both The Odyssey and John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) remain the strong favorites. We will be updating as the ceremony draws closer.
Rockstar Eats the Game Awards
Two months out from the December 10th show, The Game Awards is showing $2.5 million in volume and a Game of the Year race the market has mostly already called. Grand Theft Auto VI sits at a fat 69% (nice) to win the award, lapping the field. The crowd is pricing a game it hasn’t played yet: Rockstar lists November 19, 2026 as the release date.
What I love about this market is that the Game of the Year isn’t a critics’ poll, it’s a cultural coronation, and nothing in gaming is bigger than GTA right now. GTA VI shows up three separate times on our chart (GOTY, a new trailer, GTA Online). Just serving as proof that the Rockstar game is eating the culture whole. That attention doesn’t guarantee an award, though. The official awards site says nominees are coming in mid-November, and its available FAQ doesn’t establish GTA VI’s 2026 eligibility. Release timing, nomination access, and the applicable rules still matter.
Can anything stop the GTA VI domination, or is this one all wrapped up the second the game actually comes out?
Next Week’s Watch
Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” run — the weeks-at-#1 and YouTube markets are live and moving; a sneaky-active corner of the board.
A new GTA VI trailer before December —If a trailer drops, watch how the related Rockstar markets react.
DWTS, next elimination — the favorites have survived two weeks running. Does the market finally get one right?
This piece covers market activity on Kalshi Entertainment, not betting or investment advice. Prices are point-in-time and move fast. PredictQ is a marketing partner of Kalshi and may earn a commission from referrals.