Julia Stiles is the DWTS favorite to go home on Disney Night, Callum Turner just jumped Jack Lowden for yet another lead change in the 007 race, and Godzilla and the Cat in the Hat are stealing the Rotten Tomatoes volume from Hunger Games.
Every Monday, we run hundreds of topics across thousands of active Kalshi Entertainment markets to ask one thing: where is the volume right now? This tells us what people are excited about, talking about and, most importantly, where they are putting their money. That helps us identify where attention is being concentrated so you can spot the story before it's everywhere. Once again, it’s all about the ballroom this week.
Two numbers do the heavy lifting here: timeliness (how close a market is to resolving) and volume (how much trading activity it's pulling). Cross them and we can put these markets into three buckets:
Hot and Loud (top-right): loads of volume and close to a resolution date
Big and Banking (top-left): the crowd is already here, the resolution date is not
On the Radar (bottom-right): the clock is loud but the money hasn't shown up yet
Prices are as of 1 p.m. ET Monday and as of this writing. They move quickly. Here's what topped the board this week.
Who this is for
Not everyone reading this is playing the same game. If you trade these markets, treat the loud names as a watchlist, not a buy list. If you're an entertainment fan who just wants to know which way the wind's blowing, read the volume as a crowd-sourced attention meter. And if you're just here for the storylines, enjoy the race, just remember every number is a live price, not a prediction set in stone.
Hot and Loud
Dancing with the Stars
Two couples leading the elimination market finally go home, and Julia Stiles is on the hot seat.
Elimination Market
After leading the way as favorites to be eliminated a few weeks in a row, Jackson Olson and Tyler Cameron both went home last week during Horror Movie Night. They were sitting on top of the elimination board all week and the market finally priced the favorites correctly.
Guest judge Shirley Ballas didn’t come with sugar I’m afraid, just spice. She handed out two 4s, one to the current favorite to be sent home Julia Stiles, another one to Tatyana Ali, plus a 5 to Cameron. Stiles and Ezra Sosa’s Omen-inspired Argentine tango scored 26/40, tied with Cameron for the lowest score of the night. Ali and Jan Ravnik’s paso doble scored low as well, 28/40. On the combined two-week leaderboard (due to no elim the week prior), Stiles (62/80) and Ali (60/80) are the bottom two couples left standing.
The market took the scores literally, as Stiles (43¢) and Ali (33¢) lead the way to go home in this weeks elimination market, with everyone else at single-digits.
The timing is different this week. Since ABC is covering the midterm elections on Tuesday, Episode 9 is being moved to Monday, November 2nd at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and Disney+. The theme is Disney on Broadway, with Cynthia Erivo as guest judge. I’m sure the contestants are hoping she will be a little easier to please than last week's judge. Stiles and Sosa are dancing a paso doble to “Satisfied” from Hamilton, a big ask from a couple coming off a 4.
The contract closes at 11:59 p.m. ET tonight, so this one settles fast. Does Stiles leave Satisfied, or does the market go two for two?
Winners Market
At the top of the leaderboard, Harry Shum Jr. and Jenna Johnson earned the season's first perfect score, a straight 40/40 for a Saw-inspired contemporary to "Toxic." That puts them first on the combined leaderboard at 76/80. Shum's contract to finish 3rd sits at 39¢, one of the most contested on the board.
Ezra Frech still owns the winner's market, but his grip loosened a touch. His Invisible Man jazz scored 35/40, only fourth on the combined leaderboard, and his price slid from 64.5¢ last Monday to 59¢ at our current snapshot. Amber Glenn picked up the slack. Her Black Swan tango scored 36/40, she's up from 14¢ to 19¢ to win, and her contract to make the finale sits at 85¢, same as Frech's top-3 price.
The sleeper from a judge-score perspective might be Connor Wood. His Annabelle-inspired contemporary scored 37/40, tied for the second-best score of Horror Movie Night, and his top-3 contract jumped from 33¢ to 43¢ in the last day.
Is 59¢ a dip worth watching on Frech, or the start of a real race?
The Rotten Tomatoes board
The #1 topic on this week’s radar is the Rotten Tomatoes board.There’s a big name sitting on top but the volume is floating elsewhere this week.
Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
The film opens on November 20th and I’m already camped outside my local IMAX in anticipation. The market is reflecting the RT score to land somewhere between 77-80% fresh. Above 77 is 63¢ and above 80 is 48¢, so the market’s middle is right around 80.
Hunger Games isn’t where the money moved, though. It doesn’t have any reviews yet even if the first reactions have been glowing. It seems like the market is waiting for some more information before making a move.
The real action is in two movies that open this Friday, November 6, and whose contracts close three days after release.
Godzilla Minus Zero
Its 24-hour volume 10x’d, going from 1,889 last week to 19,725 contracts in our snapshot. It debuted at 95%(!) from 22 reviews in late September and has since slipped to around 94%, per fan trackers. Kalshi has above 90 at 72¢ and above 92 at 48¢, so the market expects a little more slippage once the US reviews land.
The Cat in the Hat
Count me in for anything Bill Hader-related. He’s the new Cat in this animated take of the classic children’s story. It’s the most traded movie on the board, hitting about 35,800 contracts in a single day. First reactions have called it funny, heartfelt and a little unhinged and I’m not sure the market knows what to do with that. Above 65 sits at 54¢ and above 70 at 42¢. That's a coin flip in the mid-60s.
Does the wider US release drag Godzilla under 92, or does the kaiju hold the line?
GTA VI: 17 days out and the board is already loaded
Grand Theft Auto VI launches November 19, and Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album drops the same day through Atlantic and Take-Two. The markets around both are heating up, just like everything else GTA touches these days.
Game of the Year
GTA VI is 83¢ to win at The Game Awards on December 10, with Resident Evil Requiem a distant second at 7¢. The fine print matters here. The Game Awards' eligibility cutoff is November 20 at 9 p.m. PT, so GTA VI qualifies by one day, and reviews reportedly don't drop until November 18. That's a lot of money on a game no critic has scored yet, but that’s what the most anticipated game ever does to a market.
The Album: Kodak Black
It’s sitting at a hefty 79¢ to be featured on the game. An unfinished, early version of the track with Kodak and Don Toliver leaked back in September, and Don Toliver’s feature contract sits right next to his at 82¢. This is a fun one to watch if you’re a fan of the game or the long lists of artists mentioned in the market, but it’s also very volatile. The topic’s lead leg has been switching from week to week, with Lana Del Rey the head honcho last week.
First Week Sales
Above 80,000 units for The Album in the Nov 20-26 tracking week is at 89¢.
Is the review embargo the moment the 83¢ Game of the Year price finally gets tested?
Super Bowl Halftime
Jay-Z is settled as the headliner. Now it's about the guestlist.
We’ve been on the Jay-Z wave for a couple weeks, and it's now a settled story. The NFL, Apple Music, and Roc Nation announced on October 26 that Jigga will headline the Super Bowl LXI halftime show at SoFi.
The money on who will join him is what’s moving now. Cam'ron to perform is 79¢, Beyoncé 76¢ (I called her the fun name last week), Justin Timberlake 66¢, Alicia Keys 63¢ and Nas 57¢. Rihanna is the mover, up from 36¢ to 48¢ in the last day.
Most of these legs are thin, so one order can move a price. Who's the first guest the NFL actually names?
Big and Banking
The Next James Bond
This morning our snapshot had Jack Lowden as the favorite to be the next Bond and by the time I sat down to write, Callum Turner flipped him. This market has been whipping back and forth so much I think I hurt my neck tracking it. Turner is now pushing past 60¢, nearly doubling from a week ago. From what I can tell, the big jump is coming from rumors and clues, nothing official as of yet.
Here are the rumors that pushed him up, per my internet sleuthing:
Screen tests: last week, reports said the final Bond auditions were filmed at Bray Studios outside London. Turner reportedly tested on Friday, October 30, alongside Jack Lowden and others.
Leaving his company: on Sunday, The Sun and the Daily Mail reported that Turner quit as a director of Twentytwo Films, the production company he started with his wife, Dua Lipa. Fans took the resignation as a sign he’s clearing his schedule for the role.
Today’s articles: a wave of stories came out this morning repeating those clues. NME’s headline was that Bond experts think Turner has been named the new 007. One UK site went further and said he has “reportedly landed the role,” citing unnamed industry insiders.
The market is moving fast here. Do you think it's overreacting or is it ahead of an impending announcement? 62¢ is either the price of real information, or the price of a really good rumor.
The Oscars board keeps banking
The Odyssey is the biggest name in Big and Banking (per usual at this point). It's 60¢ to win Best Picture with 48,572 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, and Christopher Nolan sits at 59¢ for Best Director. The mover is John Malkovich, up from 41¢ to 48¢ for Best Actor on the back of Wild Horse Nine, which won him an acting award at Venice in September. Julianne Moore is the strongest favorite in the acting races at 73¢ for Best Actress.
It’s currently trading at its highest it's ever been to win. With the ceremony months away, is anyone actually selling The Odyssey at 60¢?
Time Person of the Year: Election Day is the catalyst
Zohran Mamdani still leads at 31¢, but this is the most contested market on the entire radar. Pope Leo XIV is at 20¢, Mark Carney at 15¢, and James Talarico at 13¢, up from 8¢ a day ago. Talarico is on the ballot tomorrow in the Texas Senate race against Ken Paxton, so expect this board to react to Tuesday's results, whichever way they go. Who's holding the lead when the dust settles Wednesday?
On the Radar
Netflix #1 Movie
This one technically lands in the top-right corner of our chart, but it trades like an On the Radar play. The market is asking if Netflix #1 movie will have at least 6 million views this week, and it’s answering “probably not”. At least 6M is sitting at 16¢, closing tonight. It resets every Tuesday.
The reason is decay without a new movie. Ben Affleck's Animals opened with 23.8 million views in the week of October 5 and was still #1 with 10.7 million in the October 19-25 week. The market expects the slide to keep going: "at least 9M" collapsed from 10¢ to 1¢ in the last day. The TV side is the opposite trade, with the #1 show at 9M or more priced at 85¢. Does anything new on Netflix rescue the 6M line?
Olivia Rodrigo's views market woke up
The biggest jump in volume on the entire board: Olivia Rodrigo above 5.5M daily YouTube views in November went from 40 contracts last week to 18,702 in a day, and sits at 87¢. The fuel is her "expectations" remix with Chappell Roan. The video pulled 6.4 million views within hours of its mid-October release, and October's version of this market sits at 99¢ on 12M or more. The November ladder is thin, so treat these prices as rough but the video is a banger.
Steam Weekly top seller
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 launched October 23 and is 87¢ to top Steam's weekly top sellers again. Phantom Blade Zero is the only real challenger at 16¢. This one resolves within a day.
The case against reading too much into any of this
Volume tells you where attention is, not who is right, and this week has three traps. The Rotten Tomatoes board's headline name isn't where the volume is. The Kodak Black jump is a series story, not a person story. And the Bond market flipped after our snapshot, a good reminder that our chart is a Monday-morning photo, not a live feed. A few thousand dollars can push a thin entertainment market around, and the settlement rules matter more than the narrative. Read the fine print before you buy.
Next Week's Watch
Disney Night fallout. Does Stiles survive Hamilton, and who takes over the top of the elimination board?
Opening weekend for Godzilla and the Cat. Both open November 6, and both Rotten Tomatoes contracts close November 9.
Any official word on Bond. One announcement from Amazon MGM and this market settles quickly.
Election night. Watch the Time Person of the Year board once Tuesday's results are in.
Let us know in the Discord which one of these you're actually watching!
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