As we approach the kickoff to the NFL season, and the fantasy football world is in the midst of drafting, on top of minds is who will or won't be ready for the first week of the season.
We have dug into Underdog Predict's markets on "NFL Player: To play Week 1 2026" to see if the markets can shed some light on who will and won't play the first week of the season.
The volume is low but there appears to be decent liquidity on the majority of these markets, albeit with wide splits between Yes/No.
How the conversion works
Underdog quotes these as payout multipliers, not percentages. We convert that multiplier to an implied probability for both the Yes and No, measure each, and take the middle as the probability.
For example, Josh Jacobs is 1.19x on Yes, which implies 84.0%. He's 4.76x on No, which implies 21.0%, and a 21.0% No leaves 79.0% for Yes. So the bracket on the chart runs 79 to 84, and the bar sits at the midpoint, 81.5%.
The gap between floor and ceiling is the two-sided margin which should give us a fair estimate of the market, as well as a general feel on the confidence given the range of the split.
How to use this
This can simply be a way to better inform yourself on the likelihood of a player being ready for the NFL season. It can be an input if you're drafting or looking to get a head start on NFL Week 1 sports betting or DFS. Or you might disagree with the market and see an opportunity to capitalize on that feeling by using Underdog Predict.
Check the full Week 1 availability board on Underdog Predict
What we're still working out
Two open questions. First, whether these availability markets lead the beat reporting or follow it, which we can only answer by tracking them through cutdown weekend. Second, how to price a market where the two sides are 30 points apart, since neither the midpoint nor either end is obviously the right read. If you've got a method for that second one, bring it to the PredictQ Discord.
Other Week 1 markets worth a look
Kalshi. Season win totals and division winners, with contracts on all 32 teams. Browse the football markets on Kalshi.
Polymarket. Fantasy Football markets for who will lead or finish top 12 at each position, as well as for Week 1. Polymarket's NFL section is where those sit.
ProphetX. Player-level season markets, priced peer to peer, so you are trading against other users. Sign up for ProphetX.
Novig. Peer-to-peer NFL markets, another venue where users take both sides. Join NoVig now.