Research & Analysis
The edge, written down
Expert breakdowns, strategy notes, and the sharpest signals from the prediction market ecosystem.
El Niño Is Strengthening: What Could It Mean for Weather Markets?
El Niño could reshape U.S. weather this winter, shifting storm tracks and increasing the importance of clouds, rain, and forecast uncertainty in weath...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min read
Splash Survivor Week 1: The Chargers Massacre, Why Splitting the Book Worked, and a Sharper Field Than You Think
If you were among the roughly three-quarters of the field that survived the biggest Week 1 upset since 2018, congratulations. The Chargers went into S...
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
What Circa's Week 1 Ownership Tells Us About the Splash Field
Circa posts its survivor ownership every Saturday night. Week 1 shows how closely it maps to the Splash field, where the two diverge most, and what we...
PredictQ Team· · 2 min
NFL Survivor Strategy: A Survival Guide to Large Field Contests.
How to actually win large-field survivor contests....
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
The QB Tax and Three Other Things You Need to Know Before Buying an NFL Futures Position
We are just four weeks out from the regular season, so let's talk strategy when it comes to buying Futures contracts for the upcoming NFL season....
Trevor Glisson· · 7 min
High vs. Low Temperature Markets: Why They Behave Differently
High and low temperature markets may look similar, but the weather processes behind them are very different. Using roughly 160 days of forecast data f...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
Market Movers: The MVP Race, the Super Bowl Board, and Everything Week 1 Repriced
How the markets reacted to Week 1 results...
Trevor Glisson· · 8 min
Who Plays NFL Week 1? Using Underdog Predict's Markets
As we approach the kickoff to the NFL season, and the fantasy football world is in the midst of drafting, on top of minds is who will or won't be read...
Justin Herzig· · 3 min
What’s Hot – The PredictQ Culture Radar
Week of August 17, 2026. Big Brother and GTA VI are the headliners. Every Monday, we run hundreds of topics across thousands of active Kalshi Entertai...
Trevor Glisson· · 5 min