Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the results of the TNF game. If reading Friday or later, be sure to view the updated charts in the bottom half of this article.

Each week, we run our NFL model through 50,000 simulated weeks to estimate the weekly fantasy finish markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US. The model counts how often each player leads his position or finishes in the top five.

This week, we'll walk through how last week's board held up, then preview the Week 5 numbers.

Week 4 recap

Week 4 was the opposite of Week 3. None of the four position leaders came from the model's top five, and three were outside its top 10. Drake Maye ranked 10th at quarterback, Kyren Williams 18th at running back, Tetairoa McMillan 13th at…