A receiver has 41 yards at halftime and you hold the Over on 69.5 in a standard, unprotected market. He takes a shot to the ribs in the second quarter and never comes back out. The contract settles on 41 yards, so the Over loses.
Novig has added Protected Markets for select NFL player props, giving traders a different settlement rule when a player misses the second half.* If a player doesn't record a snap after halftime and hasn't hit the number, the contract settles at its pregame fair value instead of his final stat line. This piece covers what qualifies, how the math works, and where the protection stops.
What Novig's protected markets cover
Novig's Protected Markets are versions of select NFL player prop markets with a built-in safety net. The trigger is simple. If the player doesn't record a snap in the second half (third quarter, fourth quarter or overtime) and hasn't already reached the stat target, the market settles at its pregame fair value instead of on his final stats.*
The reason doesn't matter. According to Novig's help center, an injury, an ejection, a benching or a coach's decision all count the same way, and no injury designation is needed. The label in the app is Participation Protection, and that fits: it tracks snaps. An injury report never enters into it.
A market can be protected when it is:
on a single player, for the full game including overtime
a Yes or Over market, like Over 199.5 passing yards or 1+ rushing touchdowns
on a passing, rushing or receiving stat, or a combined offensive stat such as yards from scrimmage, total touchdowns or passing plus rushing yards
Under markets, first or ordered markets like First Touchdown Scorer, team or combined-player markets, and defensive, special teams or kicking markets can't be protected. Availability varies by game, player and market, so the option only shows up where Novig is offering it.
How a protected market settles
Everything turns on whether the player records a snap after halftime.
Player records at least one snap in the second half or overtime | On his actual stats |
Player plays only in the first half and has already reached the target | On his actual stats (Yes wins) |
Player plays only in the first half and hasn't reached the target | At the pregame fair value |
Player plays only in the second half | On his actual stats |
Player is active but never records a snap | At the pregame fair value |
Player is ruled inactive before kickoff | At the fair value as of the announcement |
A snap means any offensive, defensive or special teams play, and a snap on a play called back by a penalty still counts. Novig bases participation on official play-level data from Sports Info Solutions, with the NFL as the backup source.
Fair value is the market's price as of kickoff, based mainly on trading in the protected market itself. It follows Novig's standard Fair Value Settlement rules, where Yes holders receive the fair value price per contract and No holders receive $1.00 minus it.
Here's the math with illustrative prices. Say the protected Over 49.5 receiving yards contract is trading at 40 cents at kickoff, and the receiver leaves after the first half under 49.5.
Yes holders receive $0.40 per contract.
No holders receive $0.60 per contract, even if No was winning when he left.
Pay 45 cents for Yes and you take back 40, a 5 cent loss per contract. Pay 38 cents and you take back 2 cents more than you paid. What you receive is the position's pregame value, which can sit above or below what you paid.
Turning protection on
Protection is a toggle you set before kickoff.
Straights: open an eligible player market and switch on the protection toggle on the market screen. It only appears when Novig is offering the protected version, and it shows that market's own price.
Parlays: add your legs in the parlay builder. If any can be protected, a toggle with the Protected icon shows how many legs it covers. It's all or nothing, so you can't protect some eligible legs and leave the others.
Protected markets are separate markets with their own prices, and turning protection on usually lowers your potential payout. They trade pregame only. Once the game starts you can't add protection, and you can't sell a protected straight. Protected positions carry the Protected icon on your order confirmation and in your portfolio.
On a parlay, a protected leg that settles at fair value doesn't sink the ticket as long as your other legs don't lose. The leg settles at its fair value and the parlay settles under Novig's normal rules, which multiply the settled prices together. For an illustrative leg settled at fair value, one leg lands at $0.50 and the other two win, so $1.00 x $1.00 x $0.50 pays $0.50. Any other leg that loses still loses the whole parlay.
Protected markets can settle later than standard ones because participation data has to be confirmed first. Novig sets the fair value no later than the day after the market expires.
Find protected markets on Novig →*
Contract rules come first
Each venue's contract terms govern settlement. For Kalshi, consult its protected NFL player market rules before opening a position. This explainer focuses on Novig's rules rather than ranking venues.
What protection leaves out
The feature has limits, and most of them sit in the rules above.
It settles at a price. You receive the pregame fair value, which can land above or below what you paid. Novig's rules call fair value determinations final.
One second-half snap ends it. A player who logs a snap in the third quarter and then leaves with an injury settles on his final stats, and a special teams snap counts.
It costs payout. Protected markets carry their own prices, and turning protection on usually lowers your potential payout.
It works in both directions. A No holder who was winning when the player left receives the fair value payout instead of a win.
The coverage is narrow. Only select Yes and Over markets qualify, only before kickoff, and only where the toggle appears.
It settles later. Participation data has to be confirmed first, so a protected market can pay out after the standard version.
Who this is for
Fantasy sports players moving into player props. You already know what a second-quarter exit does to a lineup. Here that scenario is written into the contract, so it's worth learning the snap rule before your first position.
Parlay builders. A protected leg that settles at fair value doesn't zero the ticket on its own. The all-or-nothing toggle means you decide up front whether every eligible leg carries protection.
Anyone holding the No side. Your win converts to fair value if the player misses the second half. That changes what a winning No position is worth at halftime.
Readers checking contract terms. Each market has its own settlement rules. The participation trigger, fair value definition and game-status provisions are the details to focus on.
Open questions
Protected Markets are new, and a few things only show up on real games. How much payout does protection cost across different stats, and does that gap move as kickoff gets closer? How close does the fair value land to where the protected market was trading at kickoff?
We're watching how these settle across the next few Sundays. If you've held a protected contract, bring what you saw to the PredictQ Discord.
Sign up for Novig to see which player markets show the protection toggle for this week's games.*
* This article includes links to PredictQ partners Novig and Kalshi. We may earn a commission if you use them. It helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice. The example prices are illustrative, and market prices and availability can change. Novig requires traders to be 21 or older and excludes Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. Check current eligibility in the Novig app before signing up. Each venue's contract terms set the rules, so read them before trading.