I've been tracking and trading this market all year, with decent success so far of identifying longshots at good prices. But I think what we have (heavily as a result of the trade deadline) right now is a great time to be trading.
Let's start with where the markets stand right now and what movement we've been seing. And then I'll get into what I'm trading.
Where things stand
Here's the top of the full Offensive Rookie of the Year market.
Fernando Mendoza | 21% | 5% | 12% | 557,517 |
Denzel Boston | 19% | 15% | 2% | 340,597 |
Jonah Coleman | 17% | 16% | 2% | 306,311 |
Carnell Tate | 13% | 21% | 13% | 422,087 |
KC Concepcion | 10% | 10% | 5% | 257,842 |
Carson Beck | 6% | 2% | 5% | 516,308 |
Omar Cooper Jr. | 4% | 6% | 2% | 237,815 |
Jordyn Tyson | 4% | 4% | 1% | 391,125 |
Jadarian Price | 2% | 3% | 18% | 693,365 |
Jeremiyah Love | 1% | 1% | 16% | 420,889 |
What I'm Trading
Jonah Coleman, DEN RB
Coleman was a fourth-round pick who sprained his ankle in September, missed four games on injured reserve and came back in Week 7. His price was 1 cent around October 20, but his outlook has changed sharply. His snap share went 49%, 66%, 77% over his last three games, while J.K. Dobbins went 23%, 21%, 15%.
Against the Panthers, he started and touched the ball 21 times: 17 carries for 57 yards and a 9-yard touchdown, plus four catches for 31 yards. RJ Harvey is on injured reserve with a knee injury and has to miss at least four games, with Week 13 as his earliest return. Denver is 7-2, off this week, and the trade deadline passed Tuesday without the Broncos adding a back.
That leaves Weeks 11 and 12 as a clean stretch where Coleman is the lead back with no Harvey. My read is that Denver hasn't committed to Harvey as its long-term lead back, which gives Coleman an opportunity to run away with the job. There's also minimal competition among other rookie RBs, which I think helps his chances down the stretch.
Carnell Tate, TEN WR
Tate was 15 cents in early August and 13 in mid-August. Around October 20, he was 25, and he touched 31 at the high on November 1. He's 14 to buy today, near his lowest of the season, after what I see as a penalty for having a bye in Week 9.
The production hasn't been stellar, but among a weak class, he's doing fine. In Week 4, he caught 9 of 12 targets for 145 yards, the most by a Titans rookie in a game since A.J. Brown in 2019. The NFL named him Offensive Rookie of the Month for October, when he had 21 catches for 290 yards. As of October 21, he led all rookies in receptions, targets, receiving first downs and air yards.
He missed Week 8 with a shoulder injury, then sat through the Week 9 bye with the Titans at 1-7. He's expected back Sunday against the Jaguars. His price dropped from 21 to 13 on Tuesday, the same day Mendoza jumped. A No. 4 overall pick coming off a bye at that price is a position I like.
Omar Cooper Jr., NYJ WR
Cooper is the one I'd call a lottery ticket. The Jets took him 30th overall. He sprained his ankle on the first drive of his first game, went to injured reserve, and came back in Week 6 with 6 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. A week later, it was 5 for 115 and another touchdown, and his price touched 24 cents that Sunday. Only one other Jets rookie, Al Toon in 1985, has had back-to-back 100-yard games.
Then came two down weeks. Zero targets against the Raiders in Week 8. Then 58 yards against the Chiefs in Week 9, which looks like a miss until you see the 11 targets and 8 catches. With Garrett Wilson out with a concussion, Cooper was the clear No. 1 receiver. For the season, he has 20 catches, 306 yards and 2 touchdowns in five games. His early injuries have held back those totals, but he has the potential to be a playmaker down the stretch.
The market has taken him from 24 to 5 cents, which is an overreaction in my book. My read is that Week 9's target count matters more than Week 8's zero.
Fernando Mendoza, LV QB
Mendoza is the expensive guy bringing down the prices on everyone else. He was 15 cents in mid-August, 2 in early October and 5 on Monday. The Raiders then traded Cousins to Minnesota and named the No. 1 overall pick the starter. His first start is Sunday at home against the Seahawks, the defending Super Bowl champions.
After Seattle comes a trip to Denver on November 22 to face a 7-2 team, a trip to Cleveland on November 29, and a Week 13 bye on December 6. The Raiders also have the seventh-hardest schedule in the league by opponents' 2025 winning percentage, .529.
My read is that his price at the bye, and possibly each week from now until then, will be lower than the 21 cents he's at today. I get the bias toward the No. 1 overall pick and the QB position. But after half a season without playing, with what I expect to be two difficult starts ahead, I'm not bullish on his outlook.
Summary
Mendoza is the expensive piece driving down the price for everyone else. You could probably make a solid case for just about any of the others given the last week's movement, but the three I'm most bullish on are:
Jonah Coleman, 17 cents. He's the lead back on a 7-2 team, with RJ Harvey out until Week 13 at the earliest.
Carnell Tate, 14 cents. He's expected back from his shoulder and the bye on Sunday, and he's near his lowest price of the season.
Omar Cooper Jr., 5 cents. He's down from 24 after two quiet weeks, and he saw 11 targets last week as the Jets' No. 1 receiver.
These markets have been fun to track on Sundays and between weeks. Let me know what you're thinking and trading in the PredictQ Discord.
This article includes links to PredictQ partner Kalshi. We may earn a commission if you use them. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice, and prices, odds, and entry counts can change.