Saquon Barkley owned a piece of Polymarket. But the NFL made him sell it, because NFL players aren't allowed to hold a financial stake in a prediction market company.
You can read the original reporting by Ben Horney and Daniel Roberts in NFL Told Saquon Barkley to Divest Polymarket Stake. What follows is our read on what it means for the people who trade these markets.
What happened
Barkley's Polymarket stake became public in September 2025, when a profile of his startup investments listed it. At some point between then and this past summer, the NFL told players they can't have financial interests in prediction market platforms. Barkley, the Eagles running back, says the league sends players its new rules before each season, covering what they can and can't do on endorsements, investments and training.
He told Front Office Sports he'd invested before the rule existed and has since gotten out. On whether he could keep it, he put it plainly. "I am not allowed to be in that."
The NFL confirmed on Wednesday that its prohibition on investing in and promoting sportsbooks and prediction markets is real, but it declined to comment on Barkley's specific situation. Polymarket declined to comment on the story.
What the NFL's rule covers
The rule sits under the league's gambling policy, and it applies to both ends of a deal. Players can't invest in a prediction market company, and they can't endorse one either. An NFLPA spokesperson told Front Office Sports in January that the league treats prediction markets as gambling entities, which means no endorser or brand ambassador roles for companies like Kalshi or Polymarket.
The league's own business moves line up with that. It has official sportsbook partnerships with DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, but it hasn't signed a prediction market partner. It barred prediction market ads from the Super Bowl last year. It has also asked the Supreme Court to take up a case on sports event contracts, and says prediction markets should be regulated by the states rather than the federal government.
The other leagues went the other direction
The NFL is the outlier among the major leagues. Per Front Office Sports, here's where each one stands:
NFL | No partner. Players can't invest in or endorse prediction markets |
NBA | Announced Kalshi and Polymarket as its preferred prediction market partners this week (not the WNBA) |
MLB | Exclusive Polymarket deal from March, reported at up to $300 million over four years |
MLS | Polymarket agreement announced in January |
NHL | Kalshi and Polymarket deals announced last October |
The athletes are moving too. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a Kalshi investor. LeBron James has a Polymarket deal that Front Office Sports reports pays $15 million a year, with the promotion focused on football. Bryson DeChambeau signed with Kalshi. Former NFL players Marshawn Lynch and Richard Sherman were among the athletes who invested in Kalshi in April through a family office platform called Factory Holdings.
The NBA draws its own line, but a different one. Its players can invest in or endorse prediction markets, they just can't promote NBA-related event contracts.
Who this is for
Traders. Barkley's stat lines and awards trade on Polymarket, including a market on the 2026 NFL MVP. A player can't hold equity in the venue where his own performance is priced, and that overlap is one easy way to see why a league might draw the line. Nothing here changes how a contract settles. It does tell you which way the league is leaning on prediction markets, and that shapes the ads, partnerships and data deals you'll see around NFL markets.
Fantasy and sports bettors. If you check Vegas lines before setting a fantasy lineup, you already think in probabilities. Prediction market prices offer another way to read event probabilities, and the league's stance is one more variable to watch as NFL markets grow.
Journalists and sports business readers. The story is the split. The NBA, MLB, MLS and NHL all have prediction market partners, and the NFL has a rule that reaches into its own players' portfolios.
Where things stand now
A lot is still unknown. Front Office Sports didn't report how big Barkley's stake was or exactly when he sold it, and the NFL declined to say whether his holding was a violation. We don't know if the league took any action on his case. His comments come from one interview, and the league confirmed only the general rule.
This investment and endorsement rule governs players. It doesn't determine whether fans can access NFL markets on Polymarket or Kalshi. That depends on the platform, the market, age requirements and location-specific restrictions.
The NFL's position may not hold still either. Its sportsbook partners and its Supreme Court push show a league that's actively working out where prediction markets fit, while every other major league has already signed up. The NBA's version of the rule, which lets players invest but not promote NBA contracts, shows there's more than one way to write it.
What we're watching
Will the NFL keep this rule if the Supreme Court takes up the sports event contracts case? Does it eventually sign a prediction market partner the way the NBA just did? And what happens to player-level markets if more athletes hold stakes in the venues that list them?
We don't have the answers. We'd like to hear how you read it, so bring it to the PredictQ Discord.
PredictQ partners mentioned in this piece include Kalshi, Polymarket and DraftKings. We may earn a commission if you use our partner links. It doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. Nothing in this piece is investment advice. Market prices, fees and availability can change, and platform eligibility and location restrictions apply.