Each week we run our NFL model, a Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 weeks, to price the weekly fantasy finish markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US. It counts how often each player leads his position or finishes top five. Today we'll walk through how last week's board held up, then preview the Week 8 numbers.
WEEK 7 RECAP
Two of the four Week 7 leaders came from the model's top five at their positions. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led receivers as the model's fourth choice (7.3%), and Trey McBride led tight ends as its third (11.4%). Joe Burrow was the top quarterback from eighth on the list. Tony Pollard's three-touchdown day put him first among running backs, a long shot at just 1.1% and 19th on the board. It was a tough week for the favorites as Jahmyr Gibbs, Puka Nacua and Brock Bowers all struggled.…