Week 2 did not ease anyone in. It took out two young Quarterbacks, gave us multiple shocking upsets that clogged up a coaching market, and Josh Allen turned a primetime demolition into a one-man MVP tape.
A quick note on the numbers: all line moves below are Kalshi prices unless stated otherwise, since it's the deeper book across most of these markets. All prices recorded are at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Two Young Quarterbacks Go Down and The Market didn’t wait for the MRI.
The market got repriced in real time as two of the most talked about young passers in football both exited their matchup early to injury.
Caleb Williams - Took a cart ride to the locker room. Usually, a strong indicator of serious injury, but now the Ringer’s Tom Pelissero is reporting he hasn’t even been ruled out for the game next week. Regardless of the severity of the injury, the market has moved with the swiftness of a falling knife. Caleb’s MVP chances have plummeted 9 points, from 12% last week all the way down to 3% in light of the injury scare. This is a violent move for a player who may be available in eight days. If he’s not available, however, an MVP candidate who misses even two starts or comes back limited, rarely gets the benefit of the doubt come January.
Also, a result of the Caleb injury is the Ben Johnson COY price. It came down with him, from 11% to 4% (-7).
Is this a market overreaction or should we be concerned with his rest of season outlook?
Jaxson Dart - Also fell victim to the jaws of Week 2, and this one seems more serious for the New York slinger. Ian Rapoport has reported that the MRI has come back worse than expected. At minimum an extended absence, and a season-ending outcome is still in the cards.
Tough break for the Giants, their young QB and for John Harbaugh’s Coach of the Year outlook. His implied probability has shriveled to 3%, a huge falloff from his 19% after beating the Cowboys in Week 1. Ugly print, but maybe not a dead contract. First year head coaches for a franchise win the award often compared to the field (even winning 4 out 6 years during a stretch). A bigger predictor for COY is year over year turnaround, versus just counting total wins. The Giants won 4 games last year and already took down a division rival in Week 1.
Can the Giants scrape up a few more dubs to put Harbaugh back in the conversation?
The MVP Race Looks More Like a Parade
Josh Allen. Josh Allen. Josh Allen. The man is just piling on to his already biggest position on the board. He went from a dominant 17% to an astounding 28% to win the award, more than doubling the rest of the field. After dog-walking the Lions with five total touchdowns on primetime, this reaction was a projectable one. It will be his race to lose going forward and the market will probably twitch on every drop back.
The rest of the board is feeling the Josh effect, it's mostly red. Williams (-9), Lamar Jackson (-3), Justin Herbert (-4), Jordan Love (-2) all gave cents back, while Brock Purdy (+4) and Patrick Mahomes (+3) quietly climbed up.
My take here is that the market is pricing Allen like he’s going to be flawless the rest of season. A normal Bills win may not juice the contract, and a loss or sloppy tape may bring the price down to earth.
Super Bowl: Rams Hold on to Their Lead and the Bills Keep Pace.
A week after getting pounced on by their division rival in the land down under, the Rams get 3 quarters of Jameis Winston and roll to a 28-6 win on Monday Night Football. I’m not denying the talent and coaching the Super Bowl LVI champs boast, I’m just not sure their start to the season is what we expected. They still hold the favorite title at 13% with the Bills close behind.
A 13% favorite after two weeks is not expensive in a 32-team field, and it’s also not a market that just got new information that the Rams are better than anticipated. They simply survived and the Bills, who jumped 2%, kept pace. The Chiefs also moved up 2% while the Chargers, Broncos and Giants conceded two of their own.
Worth monitoring to see who the market over-punishes after one bad Sunday going forward.
Coach of the Year: A Coaching Carousel
A week of volatility for this market. Beyond the Harbaugh/Dart fallout above, the Ravens Jesse Minter took a serious dive (14% → 5%, -9) after the first-year head coach saw his team blow an 8-point fourth-quarter lead in a 24-17 home loss to New Orleans. On the brighter side, Kellen Moore (7% → 18%, +11) rode Chris Olave to the board's biggest coaching gain, and Klint Kubiak (+10) also climbed after the Raiders hot start.
Monitor Minter. This could be a slight overreaction from the market. A 1-1 start is a small sample to justify a nine-point collapse. I mentioned above the COY award giving first year head coaches extra runway, and we shouldn’t forget that just because the Ravens took a brutal upset in week 2. If Baltimore’s defense looks more like a Minter defense in the next few weeks, we could see that price rebound. Although, if Lamar and company keep leaking late leads, this may just be the price.
OPOY: JSN Is Just Different
The defending champ is playing like he intends to repeat. After going for 155 yards and 3 scores on 11 targets, the former first round pick is making his case. He jumped to #2 on the live list, 10 points up to 13%, just behind the falling Gibbs (down 5%) to 15%. Bijan, the biggest faller who is dealing with troubles at QB, fell down an abysmal 9 points.
How is this race going to look in a few weeks?
Week 3: The Swing Factors
Williams’s hamstring - If active and functional, and the 3% MVP price could change fast. Inactive, and the Coach of the Year and Bears-adjacent contracts stay soft with him.
Allen’s first imperfect tape - The market is now priced for dominance, a normal win may not respond well in the market. A sloppy one or a loss will be the first real two-way market in MVP.
Chase vs. Jacksonville - Chase is still recovering from the week 1 dud but is moving in the right direction. If the volume continues, OPOY stops being Gibbs and JSN and becomes a three-name board. If it doesn’t, JSN and Gibbs may keep the room to themselves.
Minter’s next impression - One clean home win and the 5% may end up looking like an early season tilt. Another late lead gone and the market may not be patient anymore.
Let us know in the Discord which one of these flips first for you!
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