Five months before Donald Trump picked JD Vance as his running mate, a trader put $4,000 on Vance at 2 cents. It paid out nearly a quarter million dollars. That trader goes by Domer.
He's been trading prediction markets since the Intrade days, going on two decades now. That's longer than most of us have been playing daily fantasy. He's traded more than $400 million along the way and is widely considered one of the best prediction market traders in the world. Most of that volume isn't in sports. It's politics, legal cases, awards, macro, and markets on things that have never happened before.
Justin Herzig sat down with Domer to trace the path from online poker to prediction markets and to get into the actual process: how he prices a one-off event, how he sizes it, why the person on the other side of the trade matters, the six-figure James Bond position he's sitting on, what someone with five hours a week can realistically do, and the mistake he sees beginners make over and over.
Watch and Listen to The Interview Above - Read Below
From Poker to Prediction Markets
Justin: Take me back to the poker years. What were you actually playing, and what was your life like?
Domer: "Back then it was all online poker, multi-tabling. You'd have a lot of tables open, playing pretty low stakes, but playing ten at once and trying to find edge through repetition. So it was a lot of very late nights. I had a regular job right out of college, and I quit within a couple of years because I was staying up until 1 a.m. playing poker and then getting up at 7:30 to drive to work. It was miserable. So I gave poker a go, then eventually prediction markets, and it worked out."
Justin: A lot of people in my world played online poker until Black Friday, then moved to DFS. Did you ever consider daily fantasy?
Domer: "Briefly. I think FanDuel was started by people connected to the Two Plus Two forums, because I remember getting an invite in the very early stages. I was probably one of the first hundred people to use it, and I remember thinking I wasn't sure it was going to take off. It seemed a little silly. But credit to them. They found a loophole, got it legalized, and it obviously got very popular."
Justin: You were trading prediction markets back in 2007. Was that a smooth transition from poker?
Domer: "A lot of poker sites back then were connected to sportsbooks. A big one some people might remember was Bodog. Poker has a lot of downtime, you're just waiting between hands, so I'd click around and think, okay, I can bet two bucks on the Knicks tonight. But do I have an edge on the Knicks? I'm not a basketball expert. Then I'd scroll and see other stuff. The Oscars. Who's going to win the 2008 nomination. That was stuff in my wheelhouse.
"So it started as clicking around on sportsbooks, and then it was, oh, there's an entire site devoted to this. Around 2006 I discovered Intrade, which is now defunct. It was love at first sight in terms of finding something I really, really enjoyed."
Pricing Events That Have Never Happened
Justin: You trade politics, legal cases, awards, macro. Most of these events have never happened before. With a sports game you can build a model off repetition and comparisons across teams. With this stuff there's no base rate. How do you get to a fair number and know whether you have edge?
Domer: "That's the puzzle, and the game element of it. Finding edge is harder, and it's harder even in hindsight to tell whether you had any edge at all or you just got lucky. But it's very fun doing stuff that's never happened before.
"Flash back to 2008. John McCain won the nomination and Barack Obama won the nomination. Those two events had never happened in the history of mankind, and the way they won was interesting. On something big like a presidential race, there are so many milestones along the way. If you're predicting a Cowboys game, it's happening in 12 hours. If you're betting on a presidential nomination, that might be six months out, with debates and all these intervening events that make it even more fun to ride the wave up or down. There are a lot of attributes to that which appeal to me personally."
Justin: Walk me through how you go from "this looks wrong" to actually sizing it. What has to happen in between?
Domer: "Sizing in general is a pretty well-known thing at this point. It's the Kelly criterion. John Kelly, back in the '50s, basically said you should bet according to your edge. It's a very simple concept and extremely powerful. If you don't think you have much edge, you bet a small amount. If you think the price is extremely wrong, you bet more.
"The other part is getting to a correct price, or at least a better price than the market. A lot of that is research. Spending time on it, devoting more hours to it than the person on the other side of the bet, being a student of the exact market you're trading. This isn't a free lunch. Occasionally there are dollars sitting around for 90 cents, but this is a hard thing to do and you have to put effort into it."
Research and the Other Side of the Trade
Justin: When you say research, is that sitting at your computer reading the news, or is there boots-on-the-ground work? What's your actual edge?
Domer: "All of the above. This is my career, but it's also something I'm kind of making up as I go along. There's no rulebook. Nobody sat me down and said, to become a prediction market trader you need to do these ten things. So it's figuring out how to find edge on an individual market.
"Sometimes I've done in-person polling. I've called press secretaries. But I've also spent a lot of late nights reading articles, or esoteric law cases from the '70s. It's about approaching each market in a way that makes sense and figuring out how you're going to unearth some edge. There are different ways to do it, and you're trying to be creative and think it through. It's a puzzle."
Justin: Let's think about the other side of the trade. How important is it to know who your counterparty is, or what they're thinking?
Domer: "It can be very, very important. If your bankroll is $10,000 and you bet $100 on something, it's not that important to know who's on the other side. Losing 1% of your bankroll isn't a big deal. But if you start getting up to 10% or 20% of your bankroll, you've put a lot of hours in and you're making a significant bet, then part of that research is asking: if I'm buying at 50, someone else is selling at 50. Why are they doing that?
"You can put yourself in their shoes. You can try to find out who it is and talk to them. You can ask friends if they know who's on the other side. Whether you talk to them or figure it out yourself, taking that other perspective is very important, because they're doing it for some reason. It could be a smarter reason than yours. And if it is, you want to know that as soon as possible, before you go from 10% of your bankroll to 20%."
Justin: Has there been a time you liked a position, learned more about the counterparty, and backed away?
Domer: "That type of thing happens all the time. You love a bet at 3:00 and by 5:00 you're thinking, what am I doing, I need to get out of this. It's not an everyday thing, but it happens pretty frequently. You're chatting with someone and it's dawning on you, the light bulb is forming over your head, that the way you've looked at this isn't correct and this person has unearthed something smarter than anything you've thought of so far."
Domer's Setup and How He Reacts to News
Justin: What's your technology setup? Screens, scripts, alerts, spreadsheets? What does it look like for someone with your volume?
Domer: "I have four computer monitors and two TVs. Somewhere between three and four screens is ideal. More than that gets hard to keep track of. Having a TV on in the background, whether I'm tracking news or sports, is very important to me.
"In general, following the news is very, very important. I have an entire tab devoted to scrolling news, and if I have downtime I'll just sit and watch it come in. Say I'm betting on JD Vance and I'm watching JD Vance news. Different news comes in and suddenly I've got an idea about an Ethiopian election I'd never thought about in my life, just from a headline. So watching the news is both monitoring what I'm already in and generating new ideas."
Justin: You've said before you sometimes have three seconds to respond to news. How do you do that when most of your setup sounds manual?
Domer: "When I started, back in 2008, if a big poll dropped showing Romney ahead of Obama or something, you might have a few hours to react. That's not the case anymore. The New York Times dropped a big midterm poll a couple of weeks ago that moved the markets, and you didn't have long to react. Maybe a few minutes, because it hit so many markets. But when a headline hits one market, yes, you have three seconds.
"So there are two paths. One, you try to be first, in that first three seconds. That can happen in sports too. You see a Schefter bomb that Lamar Jackson is injured, and you bet his opponent and try to be first in the door.
"The second way is reacting to the reaction. Some story breaks, Trump did XYZ, and people say it's over for him, he's going to be impeached, Republicans are going to turn on him. That story has happened 20 times in the past eight years. So you might decide the reaction in the first three seconds, or the first two minutes, was too much. You think it through more carefully, then bet the reverse side. That's the slower, second-order reaction. You're not trying to be first. You're trying to be more accurate."
Justin: I was the fish this past weekend. Caleb Williams went down with what looked like one of the most severe injuries ever, so I bought all his No's in the prediction markets, only to realize he's probably out a game at most.
Domer: "That's one of those things where the first reaction can be the worst one, and the one-hour-later reaction can be the better one."
Justin: You've said you're not the smartest person in the room and you need other people to reality-check you. If it's not raw intelligence, what makes you so successful at this?
Domer: "At this point, probably experience, and knowing a lot about your own biases and how things affect you. I also have a decent bankroll at this point, so I'm not afraid to take risk. Some people get skittish about risk and focus on the downside. I'm much more relaxed about losses.
"And I've built a network. I'm not the smartest person in the world, but I try to talk with a lot of very smart people and bounce ideas off them. As much as I might know about movies or any topic, I'm not a super genius. You can be smart without having the world figured out. So it's important to be humble, to have the right attitude, and to be curious, even about topics you're an expert on."
A Live Position: The Next James Bond
Justin: Can you give an example of a current position and how you researched it? Make it as concrete as possible.
Domer: "Here's a fun one. I've bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on who the next James Bond is going to be, and I've been researching it for a couple of years.
"You could say, who knows who James Bond is going to be, it's somebody's decision. But you can think it through. One, they're launching a new franchise, so they probably don't want someone over 40. Two, look at the director and who he's cast in the past. Three, look at what kind of person has played Bond before. Usually someone who isn't super famous but isn't super obscure either, some middle ground. With a silly, interesting market like this, you can build a lot of theses to guide your bets.
"The other thing that's been very profitable so far, knock on wood, is fading whoever everyone thinks is the current front-runner. I think five different people have been the favorite in this market. That's my type of market, where participants keep overrating the favorite. My personal opinion, and we're getting down to the wire since it'll probably be announced in the next couple of months, is that it's going to be a bit of an unknown. I'm giving out some alpha here, and we'll see if I'm right."
Justin: There's no Susquehanna on the other side with better models pricing this. But you're putting six figures on something where someone will eventually know the answer before everyone else. How do you handle eventually trading against someone with inside information?
Domer: "That's a really good point. The closer you get to an event, the more likely you're betting against someone who, maybe not has the answer, but has very good clues, or is related to someone who knows. So close to an event like this, you have to be very careful.
"I've been trading Bond for 18 months or so, building a long-term position, so for most of that time I haven't been worried. Even now I'm less worried, because it's a very closed process and they don't want it revealed. If it leaks through a prediction market, that undermines the production itself, and this is hundreds of millions of dollars of importance to a studio. They're not going to let it leak so someone can make $100,000 on a prediction market. That tradeoff is terrible for them. So you think about things in context. The closer you get, the more you worry about an insider. Further out, I'm not concerned at all."
The Five-Hours-a-Week Trader
Justin: Someone listening has a job, two kids, maybe five hours a week for prediction markets. What's the realistic version of this for them?
Domer: "One cool thing about prediction markets, like the stock market or fantasy, is that there are different levels of dedication, and you think about what you're doing within how much time you actually have. One hour a week or 80 hours a week, there are levels to it. Easy mode: I have an hour a week, I'll find one market, track it, maybe it's slow-moving, and it fits within the bounds of my life. Someone with 80 hours can do 50 markets and follow Twitter all day.
"With five hours, there are different time horizons you can trade. We talked about James Bond. You could look at the 2028 race, like who the Democratic nominee will be. One of my best trades, and I have no idea if it'll pan out in the end, was buying AOC for the Democratic nomination at 6 to 8 cents about 12 to 18 months ago. That's doubled, and at one point I think it tripled.
"You don't need a lot of time for that. It's a simple thesis and a patience bet. I think she's very popular with certain segments of the Democratic Party. Whether she pops two weeks from now or twelve months from now, I don't have time to figure out exactly when, but I think her price probably doubles at some point. So I put $1,000 down and hopefully someday it's $2,000 or $2,500.
"It's not always what's the game tonight, or what's Trump going to say tomorrow. There are slower-moving things you can devote those five hours to. Maybe you like movies. There are video game markets. You form a thesis, research it at a slower pace, get involved, and maybe trade out of it at some point down the road."
Justin: When we were starting PredictQ, we thought about best prices, podcasts like this, strategy articles, tools. What would you recommend sites like ours do to help the person with five or ten hours a week?
Domer: "Think about it through the lens I just described. There's a simple layer, people who need to learn how prediction markets are even priced. A medium layer, someone with five hours a week. And an advanced layer, someone with 80 hours a week, who might want more advanced articles. Maybe you decide to focus on that medium band. Think about how people approach these markets, how much time they have, what they're interested in, and which markets have enough volume to actually trade.
"The baseline is thinking about the audience, and the audiences are extremely different. There are probably fewer than a thousand people doing this 80 hours a week. The audience doing it a few hours a week is much bigger. Those thousand people may be spending more money, while everyone else is looking for small edges here and there."
Justin: It's counterintuitive, but I think the person spending five hours a week on one market is devoting more time to that market than most professionals. The person putting in 80 hours is covering such a broad range. Go deep on one market and you can be competitive.
Domer: "That's a really, really good point. You can specialize and drill down. Five hours may not seem like a lot, but you can get really deep on a topic in five hours, especially if you're working with AI. You can probably become an expert on a given topic in a few weeks."
If Domer Were Coaching a Beginner
Justin: If you were coaching someone brand new, what would that look like? Which markets would you start them in, and how would you help them evaluate?
Domer: "Number one, put in as much money as you can afford to lose. For some people that's $100. Then start betting it. Maybe $5 or $10 a market. Winning $10 isn't going to change your life, you bought a burrito. But you're finding out if you're any good at this. You're finding out what you like trading. You're finding out that buying at 50 was a terrible idea and you were the idiot in that scenario. You're iterating and teaching yourself lessons by getting in the game.
"When someone explains a new board game to me, I don't want to hear all the rules up front. Let's learn the rules while we play a round, then start over and play for real. Go in treating it like a sandbox. Make bets, very small ones, but doing it is the best experience."
For the rules-first version, our Prediction Markets 101 covers pricing, order books and the terminology in plain language. And if you're funding a few accounts to start, check the current sign-up offers first.
Where Beginners Get Into Trouble
Justin: In that lens, what's the most common mistake you see or would expect from beginners?
Domer: "The easiest and most common mistake is not selling a position that's gone bad. Not taking the loss.
"Take the Fed market a few weeks ago. The inflation number came out and it was close to a guarantee they were going to hike. Whether that was 98% or 85%, you can argue. But the immediate reaction moved the price to something like 70% or 75% for a hike, and the real odds were much higher than that. It may have been slow to react because people didn't want to take a loss.
"I was in that position. The inflation number came out too high, I wasn't expecting it, and I had to dump my shares at a loss. Take the loss. Getting back 40% of your money is a lot better than 0%. The number one mistake I see from new players is making a bad bet and riding it to zero. Maybe it'll turn around. They get annoyed by the position and push it away instead of taking the 20% or 40% they could use on a different market."
Justin: Pulling on that thread, if they should be selling losing positions, shouldn't they also be considering buying the other side at those same prices?
Domer: "It depends, but you want to be constantly re-evaluating the price, even when it's painful. Say you dislike Donald Trump and don't want him to be president, but the votes are coming in and it looks like he's going to win. You don't want to say forget it, I'm closing the laptop. Set aside your personal opinions and look at the price. Is 20 cents a good price? Should I dump here?
"Then the next question, like you said: should I be on the other side? Should I buy at 80 cents? Is it actually worth 90? Is it slow to react because everyone holding Kamala or Hillary shares is afraid to sell, or shut their laptops and walked away? It's a constant process of evaluating prices in real time as accurately and dispassionately as you can, even on topics you're very passionate about."
Justin: Maybe this is level 201 or 301, but emotions driving a market usually means opportunity. In sports, a lot of people saw it with England versus Mexico at the World Cup. California and Texas, two big states without legal sports betting but with access to prediction markets, both border Mexico with large Mexican populations, and there was a lot of emotionally driven money on Mexico. It turned into one of the most profitable spots of the tournament on England. I'm sure you see that outside sports too, especially with elections.
Domer: "The other thing people get stuck on is price anchoring. Say a bill is at 60% to pass on Tuesday morning. News comes in and it moves to 40 cents. People think, it moved from 60 to 40, that's way too far. But the 60% price was a made-up price. We don't know if it was right. The 40% price is also made up. It's our best guess at any given time. So you can't get too anchored to any price, or emotionally attached to a position.
"Take a step back and keep re-evaluating prices, your own emotions, and everyone else's. If robots could trade politics, they'd probably do a lot better than people over time, because the emotion isn't in it. Politics has become a lot like sports. I'm rooting for my team, screw the other team. I think that's a negative for society. But for betting, it creates a lot of emotion-laden opportunities for someone who can step back and ask what the price is actually worth right now."
Why Domer Mostly Skips Sports
Justin: You barely trade sports, and our audience trades it heavily. Have you been tempted, given the volume? What's keeping you out?
Domer: "Once in a while I'll do sports for fun, or if an opportunity comes up. Mexico was way too high to win the whole World Cup, at one point something like 5%. There was a recent Super Bowl, maybe 2024 or 2025, where a team was up huge at halftime and the opponent was around 10 cents. They weren't worth 10 cents. More like 3 or 4. So I'll get involved on extremely high-volume, high-salience spots.
"Day-to-day, game by game, I don't have the time, I don't have the edge, and I don't really know what I'm doing. Am I tempted personally? Not so much, because I've been very successful doing what I do. I could see someone just getting started being tempted. I'd say focus on smaller sports rather than something like football, where you're competing against literal sharks who've been trained on this data for years and may be employed by hedge funds to trade it. Football can be extremely hard to beat.
"The one thing I do like is sports awards. There's a qualitative element. You're trying to figure out what the voters are thinking, and those psychological elements appeal to me."
Justin: On those futures, are you thinking purely about their likelihood of winning, or about the week-to-week value, where you might get out in a few weeks based on schedule?
Domer: "It can be both. This player's having a great game, buy some shares. Or, six weeks from now he'll have run through a nice schedule and I can sell at a good price. But what I usually like is trading awards once all the games have been played. The data's in and you're betting on what the voters will do. That's more fun to me, and it's where I find more edge. Trading awards week to week exposes you to variance. I don't mind variance, but I want to reduce it as much as possible on things where I'm not a super expert on, say, who the NFL MVP will be."
Justin: Just this morning someone in our Discord asked how a beginner should start, and we talked about futures. Michael Penix Jr. is coming back for the Falcons this week, they're 0-2, and they've got three straight prime-time games. At 2 cents for Comeback Player of the Year, if he goes 2-1 or 3-0 in those games, I think he's worth a lot more than 2 cents. That's the kind of bet where you think through the different windows.
Domer: "I think that's an excellent point. I love trades like that, where you're buying quote-unquote trash, but at such a good price that people aren't thinking through how it could look like a glistening diamond three weeks from now if certain dominoes fall. It reminds me of my dynasty league. It's a superflex, and I took Deshaun Watson very, very late. Nobody wanted him. Worst case, I drop him, which is about where I drafted him. In the first couple of games he hasn't been terrible, so it could turn from trash into something worth having."
Sportsbooks, Market Makers and Where This Is Headed
Justin: Can online sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings that are moving into prediction markets compete with the traditional prediction market platforms? What would they have to do?
Domer: "First, the traditional platforms aren't very entrenched. These are brand-new things. Kalshi launched its alpha or beta around 2020, and sports has only been there a few years. Second, prediction markets can be expensive. If you bet a side on an NFL game, sometimes paying the vig at a sportsbook is comparable to, or cheaper than, the fees on a prediction market. So we're definitely going to see competition on price.
"These are marketplaces. Think about stock trading. Fifty years ago a trade was extremely expensive. Twenty years ago it was maybe $10 a trade. Now it's free. Robinhood sells order flow and makes money that way. So there are ways new companies can compete, and one that will definitely happen is prices and fees coming down."
Justin: Another way they're competing is by being market makers themselves, either on other platforms or their own. How do you feel about prediction market sites effectively being their own market maker, even through a separate third party?
Domer: "Somebody like FanDuel using Kalshi makes a ton of sense to me. If you're running a company with P&L statements and employees to pay, you don't want to take huge variance in a given week. So it makes sense for them to lay off some positions, maybe even make a profit as a market maker.
"When it's the companies themselves, like Kalshi Trading on Kalshi, I don't have a philosophical problem with it in general. What these companies should be very transparent about is their positions in any given market, and how markets resolve. Probably 99.5% of markets expire perfectly fine. In the other 0.5%, are they resolving in a way that benefits their trading arm, or a very close partner? Do we have any way of knowing? Prediction markets sometimes have resolutions where, I don't want to say sketchy, but you don't know if they decided it correctly. If you're mixing in positions held by the platform, you have to be really careful that those two things are completely separate."
Justin: I like the CFTC's recommendations there, and the market seems to be starting to police itself. In 2024, you described this as going from a tiny sandbox with a few kids in it, to a big beach with thousands of people, to eventually an island's worth of beaches. Where are we now, and what does this look like in five years?
Domer: "What it looks like in five years comes down to court cases. Sports is the huge elephant in the room. Kalshi, Polymarket and others started without sports, and now sports completely dominates. Personally, I don't have an opposition to sports on a prediction market. Marketplaces are great ways to trade things.
"But it'll go to the courts, and to the Supreme Court, on whether sports is allowed. If it isn't, prediction markets become an extension of financial markets: serious markets on important topics. That'd be great, but very different. With sports, which I don't personally view as gambling but is gambling-adjacent, it appeals to very different people. A 20-year-old college kid doesn't care who the Fed chair is, or even who the Democratic nominee is. He may not vote for eight years. But he cares a lot whether Mississippi State beats LSU this weekend. Whether prediction markets become enormous really depends on whether they keep sports, and that's going to be the Supreme Court."
Fixing Rule Fights
Justin: Say you're the prediction market czar. What's your number one priority?
Domer: "Making sure the rules are very clear, and that how we resolve rule fights is also clear, sensible, and leaves people wanting to keep using prediction markets.
"A few months ago, an announcer read the wrong winner for a UFC fight. Fifteen minutes later they said he'd made a mistake and the other fighter won. The sportsbooks corrected it and paid out properly. Kalshi kept the wrong resolution. Being sticklers for rules can be very antagonistic toward regular users. A regular user doesn't care about the eighth paragraph of your rules PDF saying you go by what the announcer says. Every other sportsbook paid the correct answer. This guy actually won the fight. I expect to be paid.
"Sports doesn't have it as much, but in politics unexpected stuff happens all the time. Some weird thing happens in a foreign election and nobody's an expert. How do we figure out right from wrong? You want a transparent process where people say, okay, I lost money or I won money, but this makes sense. Not, this is the dumbest thing I've ever heard, who are these people deciding this, I'm never using these markets again. That's some people's experience with rule fights, and that's the number one thing I'd want to fix."
Justin: A lot of people were mad Michigan got one extra second on the clock to beat Western Michigan. But even more would have been mad if the sites said, well, we accidentally ruled it a Western Michigan win, so we're keeping that. Ignore what your eyes saw.
Domer: "It's very important to pay things out in a way that's common sense, not to be a stickler about esoteric rules that anger 99.9% of your users."
Bonus: Domer's Take on Nathan Fielder's New Movie
Justin: Without giving anything away, rumor is you got into the secret screening of Nathan Fielder's new movie, You Can See Everything. What was that like?
Domer: "I saw it at the Telluride Film Festival, and I wasn't sure I'd get in. There are different pass levels, and I had the regular pass, not the $5,000 pass. Regular pass holders had to wait in line. I got there five or six hours early with my fingers crossed, and I think I was in the last 50 people let into a 600-person screening.
"They confiscated everything, my watch, my phone. There was A24 security walking the aisles making sure nobody was secretly recording. I'd heard rumors about the topic, but nobody knew what we were in for. It was the most unique documentary I've ever seen, and maybe the most access anyone making a documentary has had to their subject. If you're a Nathan Fielder fan, it pulls in several of his shows in ways you might not expect. It was three hours long and I'd have happily sat there for five. I was transfixed. Afterward there was a short Q&A, and Nathan Fielder is a very cool guy. It was interesting to see him when he wasn't in comedian mode."
Justin: Any alpha there? Oscars, Rotten Tomatoes?
Domer: "I'll give some. I'm skeptical it wins Best Documentary, which is where it would have its best chance, because it's so off-the-wall. As a fan you might think it's hilarious, but if you showed it to your parents they might think it's the dumbest thing they've ever seen. So be careful going all in if you're biased toward him, like I am.
"I do think it could sneak in as a Best Picture nominee. Everyone who sees it comes away thinking this is something very unique and very cool, something you'd want recognized. So: no chance to win, but a sneaky contender for a Best Picture nomination."
Justin: Where can people find you?
Domer: "Twitter, @Domahhhh. And I'm just trading. I'm in the streets. You'll probably find me either winning or losing money against you in a prediction market at some point."
Want to talk through any of these markets, or ask Domer-style questions about sizing and research? Jump into the PredictQ Discord. And if you're getting set up on the exchanges Domer trades, you can start on Kalshi and Polymarket.
This article is an adapted interview based on a real conversation about how one trader approaches prediction markets. It is not an exact transcript, a directional prediction, a trade recommendation, or investment advice. Prices, positions and odds discussed were quoted at the time of recording ([RECORDING DATE], 2026), are point-in-time, and may change. PredictQ is a marketing partner of Kalshi and Polymarket and may receive compensation for referrals.