Week 5 recap, and what the model sees for Week 6
Each week we run our NFL model, a Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 weeks, to price the weekly fantasy finish markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US. It counts how often each player leads his position or finishes top five. Today we'll walk through how last week's board held up, then preview the Week 6 numbers.
WEEK 5 RECAP
Week 5 was a solid week for the model. Two of the four position leaders were its outright favorites: Jahmyr Gibbs at running back (25.6%) and Puka Nacua at receiver (11.8%), both finishing with 37.7 points. Drake Maye won quarterback for the second straight week as the model's seventh choice, and Isaiah Likely took tight end as its ninth.
At quarterback, the shootout thesis paid off. Last week we flagged Bills-Rams and Lions-Cardinals as the two…