Note: This article is first published on Thursdays with updates included Friday morning to account for the latest injury news, projections, and the results of the TNF game. If reading Friday or later, be sure to view the updated charts in the bottom half of this article.
Each week we run our NFL model, a Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 weeks, to price the weekly fantasy finish markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US. It counts how often each player leads his position or finishes top five. Today we'll walk through how last week's board held up, then preview the Week 10 numbers.
Week 9 recap
Week 9 was the model's best week of the season for top-five finishes. Two leaders came from near the top of the board. Puka Nacua at receiver (second choice, 11.5%) and Kenneth Walker III at running back (fourth, 10.9%) both led their positions. The…