If you were among the roughly three-quarters of the field that survived the biggest Week 1 upset since 2018, congratulations. The Chargers went into Sunday with an 81%-win probability, and the Kalshi spread ladder had "Chargers to win by more than 9.5" trading around 48-52%. So, it's surprise that 21.5% of entries in the Splash Sports Survivor World Championship picked them to win their home opener against the Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals.
Unfortunately for the eliminated, the NFL has once again reminded us "any given Sunday" isn't just a slogan, it's an operating system.
It's tough to seriously nitpick the process of selecting one of the biggest Week 1 favorites in five years. I did mention in my Survivor Strategy Guide last week that picking with the field is not the optimal way to win a large field contest, and the Chargers could be used at a later date. Even though the Jags actually ended up as the "chalk" play, clearing the week for over a quarter of the field, I still think getting off the perceived chalk in the Chargers was the right move, results notwithstanding.
Luckily for my compadre John Breslin and I, we only took the Cardinal-swinging axe of elimination in 1/6 bullets in our Splash Sports survivor contests. A result of us agreeing to take a more diversified approach. Compare that to the poor (but rich?) soul who went all-in with Chargers, using all 150 entries on them in Splash's main event (per Cody Main, @cmain7 on X). I respect the courage and confidence, but opening yourself up to different paths to victory when you advance with different teams is something that cannot be overstated. So that's exactly what John and I, for the most part, agreed to do. Here's the Week 1 book, where the pool currently stands, what I learned, what I regret, and what we're looking at for the upcoming week.
Week 1 Selections
Splash Sports World Championship Selection ($21,000,000 to first) - 1 Shared Entry
Once Cooper Rush was named the starter, Pittsburgh rose up to be the highest EV play in our Survivor Optimizer. We liked the spot even when Tua projected to be under center, so the third-string nod gave us even more confidence. To be honest, I think the Tua scratch may have actually hurt our EV by a skosh, as they came in as the third most picked team, winning and clearing for 20% of the field. We survived.
The Big Splash Selections ($3,000,000 to first) - 5 Shared Entries
We had five entries in for the mini main, so we decided to finally make my financial advisor happy and diversify the portfolio:
Jaguars - As stated above, this surprised me as it turned out to be the chalk of the week, holding 27.50% of the selections in The Big Splash. And boy, was it for good reason. They came into Sunday closing at around 79% implied win probability, and honestly, for the majority of the game, it looked like that pricing may have been soft with how they routed the Browns.
Lions - This felt like a layup throughout the week, and it was, if that layup was being heavily defended by Victor Wembanyama. The Saints would not go quietly in this one and were just a 2-point conversion away from winning the thing outright with a 25%-win probability heading into the game. Honestly, not sure the sweat made this pick worth it, since using an elite team this early doesn't feel great, but a win's a win. Onto Week 2.
Steelers - A pretty straightforward double dip here from us, our only duplicated pick, justified by it being across separate contests. The Steelers still have plenty of question marks going forward, and it feels good getting them out of the way early.
Eagles - Our least popular pick of the week (4.5% selected) and another one that ended closer than anticipated. My thought process with the Eagles, and this is based solely on my own bias and priors, is that they may take a step back this year. If we do get an underperforming team without A.J. Brown, with a new OC and an aging, injured O-line, it makes sense to use them early as huge home favorites. We'll see if this pick pans out, or if the Eagles stay atop as one of the NFL's elites.
Chargers - Our only loss of the week. No true regret taking them, though, especially considering they weren't the bonafide chalk of the week. They get the Raiders next week, looking to bounce back.
Where the Pools Currently Stand
The Splash Sports Survivor World Championship ($1k buy-in, $21M to first) has 75.1% of the field (15,657 entries) remaining. Of the 5,182 eliminated, 4,488 picked the Chargers, 370 picked the Cowboys, 225 picked the Titans, and 47 picked the Dolphins (you sickos, but respect). Ten other teams carried selections of fewer than 10, including two that picked the Cardinals (should we give them the $21M now?).
For the Big Splash ($100 buy-in, $3M to first), unsurprisingly, the field stats look similar: 74.1% remain alive, or 24,737.
What I Learned
The chalk on Splash is not the same as chalk on other sites. Piggybacking off our team's article (What Circa's Week 1 Ownership Tells Us About the Splash Field), the Splash field looks to be a little sharper than other contests.
This matters to me going forward. If Splash is going to lean away from the biggest favorite on the board, especially after the Chargers travesty this past week, it may be optimal to mix in the heavy favorites in a given week if ownership stays muted.
I also learned that future value still counts. Burning Lions and Eagles in Week 1 is a tax we paid for a clean advance. In a format with double-pick weeks later on, that tax is going to get more expensive. Not sure if we're going to pay it again going forward unless the ownership discount is huge.
What I Regret
The Raiders.
John and I floated the idea of taking the Raiders in The Big Splash, but ultimately passed, given Jeanty's health and a surprising number of positive whispers coming from Dolphins' camp over the past few weeks. Those entries that were brave enough to select the Raiders look to be holding the highest EV at the moment, per once again, Cody Main (cmain7 on X).
Hindsight, of course, has perfect vision, and I don't think we would've ever replaced the Chargers with the Raiders, so we'd be in a similar spot regardless.
On to Week 2
The Survivor Optimizer on the site is showing Tampa Bay as the highest EV selection for the week in the Baker revenge game against the Browns.
Still too early to lock in the pick, but if the majority of the field is going to flock to the 49ers against the hopeless 'Phins, the Bucs will certainly be in our pool of teams to use for Week 2. This week in general has a lot of favorable spots for us to attack, so I imagine we're going to stay on the path of diversity and carry a mixed bag with our remaining entries.
Here are the spots that are looking good to start the week via their implied win probability, via the Optimizer:
49ers (84.2% implied win probability) at home against the Dolphins
Ravens (73.6%) at home against the Saints
Buccaneers (73.6%) at home against the Browns
Rams (69.9%) at home against the Giants
Eagles (69.9%) on the road against the Titans
Chiefs (68.8%) at home against the Colts
Chargers (68.6%) at home against the Raiders
My lean until we get closer to the weekend and get injury news is the Bucs as the EV anchor, 49ers if we need a higher floor on some tickets, plus one or two lower-owned home favorites so we're not all dead on the same result.
What's your Week 2 lean, sticking with the highest-EV chalk or fading the field again like we did in Week 1? Drop your picks in our Discord, we want to see how the community's portfolio is shaping up.
This article includes links to PredictQ partners Splash Sports and Kalshi. We may earn a commission if you use them — doesn't cost you anything extra, and it helps keep the lights on here. This piece reflects the author's personal Survivor contest entries and strategy, not investment advice or a guarantee of results. Contest entries, prize pools, and field percentages are point-in-time and may change.