It's a wrap for Week 3. A week I am dubbing "the week of true colors," as we can no longer use arguments of rust to make excuses for player or team performances. The time for us to say "Well… it's only Week 2, XX will figure it out" is gone and passed.
This week gave us more Gibbs domination, a rookie who seized a full workload and nearly the whole ROY board, a fresh Coach of the Year favorite, and the first real challenger to Josh Allen's MVP crown. Below is what moved, why it moved, and where there may be an edge hiding between Kalshi and Polymarket.
A quick note on the numbers: line moves are Kalshi prices unless stated otherwise, since it's the deeper book across most of these markets. Where Polymarket disagrees meaningfully, we call it out. All prices are point-in-time as of writing and move fast.
Rookie of the Year, Jeremiyah Love arrives
Jeremiyah Love (20% → 43%, +23) was the single biggest mover on the entire board. The Cardinals rookie got a career-high 26 touches against the 49ers, more than double his first two weeks combined. He out-touched teammate and former committee leader Tyler Allgeier 26-to-6. The question on Love was never about the talent; it was always on how much Arizona would lean on the 3rd overall pick. It only took three weeks for him to look the part of a workhorse, so the market isn’t going to wait around to see if it sticks.
Worth noting: Polymarket is more cautious at 36%, a seven-point gap to Kalshi's 43 and one of the widest splits on the board. If you think the workload is real, Poly is where the cheaper shares are.
OPOY — Gibbs extends lead, JSN doesn’t falter
Jahmyr Gibbs (15% → 27%, +12) now sits alone at the top of the OPOY board after a 164-yard, 3-touchdown ripping against the Jets. Through three games he's got over 300 rushing yards, 150 receiving yards, and six total touchdowns, absolutely stuffing the box score. That stat line has only been achieved by one other player in NFL history, Lions legend Billy Sims in 1980. The man (or is it the hedgehog?) draws the Panthers, Cardinals and Packers next. Is 27% the ceiling, or does the defense-destruction tour keep the price climbing?
JSN (13% → 19%, +6) did his best to keep pace, catching 10 of 14 targets for 128 & 2. He’s up to an astounding 27 grabs for 405 & 6 already through three games.
Purdy keeps climbing, and Josh Allen sees his first red week for MVP
Brock Purdy (10% → 20%, +10) is quietly authoring one of the better starts in the league. He hasn’t taken a sack, the Niners haven’t taken a loss and he's tossed 9 touchdowns through the first three weeks. The substation may have claimed injuries for a number of 49er players but the team just keeps scoring and winning regardless. The more the team needs Purdy to be the story in spite of the injuries, the more his number has room to run. The Niners get the Broncos, Seahawks and Commanders on the slate next. Polymarket is lagging a bit at 16%, so Kalshi is pricing the climb quicker than Poly is.
Josh Allen (28% → 27%, -1) remains the favorite despite the slight dip. We hinted last week that there wasn’t much else the Stallion could do to pad an already hefty price, so a small step back, despite the home win, isn’t too much of a surprise. The 3-0 Bills will get tested over the next three, with bouts against the Pats, Rams and Raiders.
Coach of the Year - One game flipped the favorite
The Raiders stay unbeaten (just like we all thought, right?) by surviving a shootout with the Saints in New Orleans. Last week’s running favorite, Kellen Moore (18% → 8%, -10) took a hit in the loss while Klint Kubiak (12% → 19%, +7) beat him at home and took his place as the favorite for Coach of the Year.
Ben Johnson (4% → 14%, +10) may be the most interesting story on the board as his price rose on losing his franchise QB. 38-year-old Case Keenum carved the Eagles defense on Monday Night and the market is attributing a lot of that success to Ben Johnson. The Bears get the Jets, Packers and Falcons up next, if they keep winning his price may keep moving.
Polymarket has Johnson at just 9%, five points under Kalshi. The books flatly disagree on how much of Keenum's night belongs to the coach.
Other notable movers include Jesse Minter (6% → 9%, +3) who we coined last week to monitor, John Harbaugh (4% → 7%, +3) and Liam Coen (3% → 6%, +3).
Let us know in the Discord which one you’re taking a position on.
Do you have a favorite price on the board?
Week 4: The Swing Factors
Purdy's workload — Undefeated teams don't usually need their QB to be this good this early. If San Francisco's banged-up roster keeps forcing Purdy to be the story, his MVP number keeps having room to run.
Kubiak and the Raiders — If Kirk Cousins and Vegas stay hot and steal one from the Chiefs at home, Kubiak's price climbs, and the Kalshi/Poly gap on the whole COY board is worth watching .
Gibbs's ceiling — He's already doing things only one other player in league history has done through three games. The question isn't whether he stays a top OPOY name, it's whether JSN can keep pace.
Let us know in the Discord which one of these flips first for you!
This article reflects market activity and pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket, not directional predictions, trade recommendations, or investment advice. Prices shown are point-in-time and may change and vary by state or jurisdiction. Users must meet each platform's eligibility and age requirements to trade. PredictQ is a marketing partner of Kalshi and Polymarket and may receive compensation for referrals.