Research & Analysis
The edge, written down
Expert breakdowns, strategy notes, and the sharpest signals from the prediction market ecosystem.
How Fast Does a Weather Trading Bot Actually Need to Be?
How fast does a weather trading bot really need to be? This article explains why reacting within seconds to meaningful weather updates can matter far ...
Peter Nickerson· · 6 min read
Asymmetric Weather Markets: When the Shape of the Distribution Matters
Temperature markets are more than individual contracts. This article shows how uneven pricing across neighboring ranges can reveal potential mispricin...
Peter Nickerson· · 6 min
El Niño Is Strengthening: What Could It Mean for Weather Markets?
El Niño could reshape U.S. weather this winter, shifting storm tracks and increasing the importance of clouds, rain, and forecast uncertainty in weath...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets By Peter Nickerson, Climate & Weather Analyst — September 11, 2026 Winning t...
Peter Nickerson· · 7 min
Forecast Biases in Models and Cities
Understanding biases in temperature forecasts can allow traders to make more informed decisions about which cities are more consistent or more volatil...
Peter Nickerson· · 4 min
When Should You Trade Tomorrow's High Temperature?
When should you trade tomorrow’s high-temperature market? This article compares market open, overnight model updates, morning observations, and late-m...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min
High vs. Low Temperature Markets: Why They Behave Differently
High and low temperature markets may look similar, but the weather processes behind them are very different. Using roughly 160 days of forecast data f...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min