Research & Analysis
The edge, written down
Expert breakdowns, strategy notes, and the sharpest signals from the prediction market ecosystem.
Featured
EducationClimate
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets
Risk Management: Understanding Kelly Criterion for Kalshi Climate Markets By Peter Nickerson, Climate & Weather Analyst — September 11, 2026 Winning t...
Peter Nickerson· · 7 min read
EducationClimate
Forecast Biases in Models and Cities
Understanding biases in temperature forecasts can allow traders to make more informed decisions about which cities are more consistent or more volatil...
Peter Nickerson· · 4 min
EducationClimate
When Should You Trade Tomorrow's High Temperature?
When should you trade tomorrow’s high-temperature market? This article compares market open, overnight model updates, morning observations, and late-m...
Peter Nickerson· · 5 min